Issh

The real problem is nitrogen-based fertilizers, which are, as a rule, derived from oil-based naphtha or natural gas. Currently, Qatar takes natural gas produced at its South Pars gas field, which was recently struck by Iran, to make ammonia and convert it into urea. Urea is a natural gas-based fertilizer made primarily of nitrogen that you can spread in physical form, whether pellets or ground powder. This one facility in Qatar is responsible for about 11% of global urea production, the primary method that people use to apply nitrogen. Collectively, the Persian Gulf is responsible for between 30 and 35% of global ammonia production. And all of that has now gone to zero. Now, of the three primary fertilizer nutrients (nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium), nitrogen is the one I am least concerned with in the short term, because it can be derived from either natural gas itself or oil. Here in the United States, we are a net oil exporter, have scads of natural gas, and can produce pretty much all the nitrogen we need. But now, due to recent attacks on Persian Gulf infrastructure, a large majority of the globe cannot do the same. In the short term - in the U.S. - we're likely to avoid massive shortages of nitrogen-based fertilizers. Yes, prices will rise, but we won't have actual shortages. But if you fast forward one, two, three, ten, or twenty years, the rest of the world will be in chronic nitrogen deficit. That's before you consider shortages of the other materials that are likely to manifest in the years to come. So, prepare for an environment where global food production stalls...and then crashes. #agriculture #farming #fertilizer #geopolitics

I'm going to make some obvious points. (1) Blowing up all the oil infrastructure in the Middle East is an insane idea, and may well result in a global economic crash and humanitarian crisis unrivaled in the lives of those now living. We're talking about the price of everything everywhere rising, from food to gas, at a moment when inflation was already high. All of that will be laid at the feet of the authors of this war. (2) The antebellum status quo of Feb 27, 2026 was just not that bad, but we're unlikely to return to it. Expect indefinite, long-term, ongoing disruptions to everything out of the Middle East. (3) Also assume tech financing crashes for the indefinite future. The genius plan to get the Gulf states caught in the crossfire has incinerated much of the funding for LPs, for datacenters, and for IPOs. Anyone in tech who supported this war may soon learn the meaning of "force majeure" as funding gets yanked. (4) Many capital allocators will instead be allocating much further down Maslow's hierarchy of needs, towards useful basic things like food and energy. (5) It's fortunate that all those progressives yelled about the "climate crisis." Yes, their reasoning about timelines was wrong, and much of the money was wasted in graft, but the result was right: we all need energy independence from the Middle East, pronto. It's also fortunate that Elon and China autistically took climate seriously. Now they're going to need to ship a billion solar panels, electric vehicles, batteries, nuclear power plants, and the like to get everyone off oil, immediately. (6) It's not just an oil and gas problem, of course. It's also a fertilizer problem, and a chemical precursor problem. Maybe some new sources will come online at the new prices, but it takes time to dial stuff up, particularly at this scale, so shortages are almost a certainty. That said, China has actually scaled up coal-to-chemicals[a,c] (C2C), and there's also something more sci-fi called Power-to-X[b] which turns arbitrary power + water + air into hydrocarbons. But all of that will need to get accelerated. I have a background in chemical engineering so may start funding things in this area. (7) Ultimately, this war is going to result in tremendous blame for anyone associated with it. It's a no-win scenario to blow up this much infrastructure for so many people. Simply not worth it for whatever objective they thought they were going to attain. But unless you're actually in a position to stop the madness, the pragmatic thing to do is: scramble to mitigate the fallout to yourself, your business, and your people. [a]: reuters.com/business/energ… [b]: alfalaval.com/industries/ene… [c]: reuters.com/sustainability…

@Wild_Randomness Rookie mistakes ™️

Sometimes we fail and fail and fail and fail again in a seemingly endless cycle of blood sweat and tears Just to wake up one day in a life better than any of those failures could have led to had they succeeded

Yeah, Hormuz is probably staying closed for a while. Dude on the Intelligence Committee decided to go into XOM at all-time highs.

Though in fairness we did close some weeklies above bull support band last bear... only during that one 3 week period... was an amazing bear trap Imagine the smell if it happened again Hard stop to upside at weekly supertrend though imo, doubt we get close to it any time soon

Keep it above that line and the bulls are in control. Daily + weekly closes above ~74kish will have me thinking we see ~80k, no higher than ~85k on a weekly closing basis. Start closing dailies below 74k and probably lower range if not goblin town.

@damianplayer Literally built this over the last few months and 0% of C-Suite I talk to are not interested 100% of the time they get at minimum to scoping a pilot Desperation is in the air

the biggest AI opportunity right now is mid-market companies ($5M-$50M+ revenue): • too big for cookie-cutter solutions • too small for enterprise consulting • drowning in manual workflows • have budget but zero AI expertise (most companies) they’re stuck with serious cash but frozen by AI paralysis.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ markets open to those with balls & a cold email sequence.

Sure would be diabolical if this ended up being a deviation while all of CT was jerkin each other off and celebrating the inevitable pump Watch for any upper wicks...

@WazzCrypto @danielfoch can you add this as a feature please? @SteveSaretsky can we still be friends if I sub to this?

I have claude code sending lowball offers all day just to make the boomers start panicking lol

Any good rug pull always needs a vicious fomo inducing pump to precede it

Claude says im in the top 1-2% of Cowork users.... but can I trust it? Yes because I built all the necessary skills, context and other optimizations 😂

What are the new constraints? You used to be able to think ahead 10, 20 years. Now you're lucky if you get the 5 year outlook right. You should still be trying, though.

This is from Anthropic's Series C in 2023. Training the best model in 2026 means building the strongest recursive loop for training the next one. I think the big three started pulling away in December. From here on out, they will all announce breakthroughs at an increasingly rapid rate, because even if it is not closed yet, the feedback loop has already begun inside the frontier labs. In all three labs the excitement among the researchers about their current work is the highest I have ever seen it. By the end of this year, they will have accelerated away from the pack and begun to build an insurmountable lead. It is already happening now, in March 2026. I think the next six months will leave no doubt. Any group that wants to catch them, you no longer have years to do so. You have months, at best.

Researchers trained a humanoid robot to play tennis using only 5 hours of motion capture data The robot can now sustain multi-shot rallies with human players, hitting balls traveling >15 m/s with a ~90% success rate AlphaGo for every sport is coming

That’s a bingo 🎯