JP Investments

$NCMI -5x 2026e EV/OIBDA -70% market share in cinema advertising -13+ year contracts with AMC, Regal, Cinemark -Capex 2% of revenues, 100% cash conversion -$100M share repurchase authorization (30% of market cap). 6% buybacks TTM -67% incremental margin on attendance growth

@taobanker Huge risk here with Costco/Amazon/Walmart as 76% of sales...in Q1 Costco launched Kirkland brand RTD protein shake priced at 20% discount to Premier protein shakes (81% of $BRBR sales). Would be wary with mgmt levering up in the last year to buy back stock at higher prices

hey what the fuck $brbr

@fpcapital_ Have not yet listened to the earnings call but she always seems ineffective. Yet they deliver…

@JPSInvestments ya.. they also said Apr renewal number was good. but I still have no idea what Christina does

$TZOO - Management executing no differently as they've been guiding...stock up 50% today (+108% from my initial flag). • Cutback sales & marketing, dropping CAC significantly ($27 CAC against $50 membership), added another +50K members • Pace of member adds stable despite price increase • Advertising & Commerce revenues stable (~5% decrease YoY) • Repurchased 500K shares in Q1 • Still cheap...trades 8x annualized Q1 earnings with 12M net cash position with ~20% sequential growth in membership revenue x.com/JPSInvestments…

@ragingbullcap Did not previously notice that $RDI acquired the remaining 25% share of Cinemas 1,2,3 for $1 in Q4, so this (assuming $50M sale) should produce net proceeds of $30M (~75% of market cap) and eliminate expensive SOFR + 500bps debt...

I think there's a reasonable chance $RDI has it's BBGI moment in the next 12 months or so. A lot of parallels (poorly managed by founding patriarch's children, highly levered/equity is a sliver of the EV, operating business in perceived decline but quietly improving, and forced monetization of enormous underlying asset value to deleverage). In some ways it's actually a much cleaner story: less risk of impairment as much of the debt is asset-level and the business will be meaningfully cash flow positive for at least the next two years, albeit the magnitude of the upside is less. therealdeal.com/new-york/2026/…

@taketheLearly Appears to be good if it can successfully raise CPMs on in-lobby advertising. Pretty small deal (20% of NCM’s screens) so seems more like a trial run if anything. Unlikely to be very material to earnings right now.

@JPSInvestments is this good or bad? $NCMI

@Kierkegaard_Cap @Divergent7651 Platinum ad spot directly mitigates this, later arrivals are factored into CPM pricing, CPMs have held up over the years even with rise of seat reservations

Never been able to get over the fact that most people show up 20 minutes after the stated start time on the ticket to skip the ads. Reserved seating means there’s no reason to show up early. Some theatres even tell you the true start time. What are your thoughts on that? In my head ROAS for this can’t be good but maybe I’m wrong.

What are your best ideas right now?

@marginofdanger Where to find filings besides on OTC website?

$APTL seems to have bought back ~21% of its float since the end of Q325. In the Q3 2025 financials, they disclose i) 1,170,561 basic S/O and ii) they upsized their S1 line of credit by $15mm. If you look on the OTC markets website, it shows that the current share count is 921,915, a reduction of around 249k shares or 21% (around $17mm at $68/share). In the Q325 financials, you will see that the second largest holder owns around 246k shares so perhaps there was a clean up trade to be had. $APTL has not yet reported its year end results, but this seems incredibly bullish and reminds me of $MCEM and $WEBC when they bought back similar chunks of stock (at a premium). cc: @StocksOddball @Ron284Ron @eriksen_tim @alluvialcapital

Post restructuring nobody would have guessed it would trade at these levels today but box office recovery has been sluggish post COVID. I think 2026-7 are breakout years (undoubtedly best years by film slate volume/quality since 2019) where the operating leverage should really start to show. Happy to own this at 6x cash flow with further upside from an extended recovery…

@JPSInvestments @taobanker I owned it for awhile. This is kinda the same thought process I had when it was at 5. The problem is that the numbers just never were what I hoped. It’s cheap now but I think it’s a tough investment here.

Box office trending nearly +30% above 2025 levels YTD, yet $NCMI continues trading nearly post-restructuring lows...trading at 7x EV/OIBDA 2025 or <5x 2026, while theater operators rally. This is a high cash-conversion, capital light business that historically traded 15x - 20x EV/OIBDA pre-COVID. Back of envelope, assuming 15% attendance growth from 2025, based on Investor Day guidance (~$400K incremental OIBDA per 1 million additional attendees), 2026 OIBDA should be ~$63M (4.7x EBITDA)....assumes no growth in CPMs, incremental earnings from Spotlight Cinema/AMC Platinum deal or expected A/R tailwinds in Q1.

Right. Which is why I’m assuming 15% attendance jump on +30% box office growth which will probably decelerate in late Q2/early Q3 based on the slate. Realistically we land somewhere between 10-15% attendance growth for 2026. Premium audiences tend to capture higher CPMs which I’m also not factoring in.

@ragingbullcap @JPSInvestments Depends more on actual numbers of people, not box office which reflects higher prices as there’s been a huge shift to premium formats like Imax.

Deep Dive #4: The $55,000 shell company that became a $480M healthcare REIT. $XRN open.substack.com/pub/orphanreit…

@OrphanREITs Great write up as usual. Will be nice to see them ramp up buybacks at these levels

$EEFT One of the best risk-reward set-ups I've seen in market today • Now trading 3x turns of EV/EBIT below all-time low valuation in depths of 2008 recession...5.1x EV/EBIT (under 6x forward P/E with clean balance sheet) • Founder-led, compounding operating income 11% CAGR in the past two years • Revenue growth between 5% to 20% every year since 2011 (except during COVID)...history of successful roll-up acquisitions (minimal impairments) • Management has guided to 10-15% EPS CAGR this year • Leverage at only 0.5x net debt/EBITDA • Repurchased $670M in shares last year (would be 25% of market cap today) • Temporary pressure in remittances - management expects 'normalized year' in 2026 • 0.5x turn of EV/EBIT cheaper than inferior/levered peer $WU x.com/JPSInvestments…

@jszhang0912 What are you solving to? I am getting to 5.4x EV/EBIT ($530M '25 EBIT on $2.883B EV) or 5.0x forward EV/EBIT on 10% EBIT growth...I am including the ATM cash ($650M) as a reduction to net debt so add ~1x turn for each, if excluding.

@JPSInvestments I think ur EV/EBIT figures are very off… but I agree it’s stupid cheap…

Voss Capital's activist effort on $EEFT...worth a read globenewswire.com/news-release/2…

They don't have a direct interest in the OpCo anymore (as was the case pre-restructuring). Shareholders now own 100% of OpCo...but theaters have an interest in maximizing pre-movie ad revenues because they share in some of the upside through 'theater access fees' (payouts based on a mix of attendance, CPMs, fixed screen costs assumed by NCMI). Incremental revenue accrues mostly to $NCMI hence the great operating leverage inherent in the model.

@JPSInvestments Got it. Thank you so much. Does any movie theaters own any equity anymore? Previous structures had their interests aligned atleast pre covid but what if theaters decide we won’t show consumer ads and will only show movie trailers pre movie?!

$NCMI -5x 2026e EV/OIBDA -70% market share in cinema advertising -13+ year contracts with AMC, Regal, Cinemark -Capex 2% of revenues, 100% cash conversion -$100M share repurchase authorization (30% of market cap). 6% buybacks TTM -67% incremental margin on attendance growth

CPMs on blockbusters tend to be higher (depending on movie genre/audience demos). Revenue is tied to CPMs and attendance broadly. Mgmt previously guided to +$400K in adj OIBDA for every additional 1M in attendance. 2025 attendance was 404M. Assuming +10% rise in attendance (we are at +21% YoY rise in box office in Q1 - some of that attributed to higher ticket prices)....should be an incremental $16M in OIBDA (~40% earnings growth). This ignores attendance growth from Spotlight acquisition, any increase in CPM lever, incremental revenues from new AMC Platinum spot (which started in Q2-Q3 last year), upside from strong remaining blockbuster slate through 2027.

@JPSInvestments This seems like a no brainer here with movie theater stocks ripping. Do you know if their revenue is tied to attendance or attendance on block busters mostly?

Most likely true. AMC and NCMI renewed the ESA last April and extended through 2042, so likely the contract will remain in-place through restructuring. Whether or not AMC closes a meaningful amount of screens is another question but AMC should survive at least through this year with 2026-27 box office recovery helping to shore up their balance sheet...

@JPSInvestments $AMC bankruptcy fears is pulling them down in my opinion. $AMC is a big revenue source

$NCMI Down 20% YTD, when theater operators $CNK and $MCS up +17% and +8% respectively... $NCMI has great operating leverage to attendance growth without any of the capex requirements of cinema operators. At 15% YoY increase in box office attendance unlocks an est. ~$24M in OIBDA at $NCMI. The stock already only trades ~7x EV/OIBDA on depressed 2025 earnings. I now have it trading at <5x EV/OIBDA with net cash position, repurchasing shares and high cash conversion....this was a business that traded 15x - 20x OIBDA pre-COVID. • Box office up +20% YoY for Q1 • Theatrical exclusivity widening (Universal up to 7 weeks by 2027) • Strong rest of year slate (Mario, Odyssey, Spiderman, Tox Story, Avengers, Dune)