@TradeStockData Dilution is tightening ? According to whom? Said who?
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Johnny singh
332 posts
Johnny singh
@JSTradeSJ
Stock realist. Tribalism and biases don’t dictate my strategy. 49x my portfolio since 2016. Take profits always.
Katılım Mayıs 2026
8 Takip Edilen31 Takipçiler
$SOFI to 2030 — let's run the numbers
FY2026 guidance: $4.655B adjusted net revenue (30% growth)
Current price: $15.62
Q4 2025: record $1B revenue, 37% growth, 13.7M members
SoFi guided for $4.655B in adjusted net revenue for FY2026 — implying 30% annual growth.
Here's what $SOFI could look like by 2030 under three scenarios, modeled on revenue growth, P/S multiple, and annual dilution:
Bear 🔴
20% rev CAGR
1.5× P/S
5% dilution → $28 (+16% CAGR)
Base 🟡
25% rev CAGR
2.5× P/S
3% dilution → $52 (+35% CAGR)
Bull 🟢
30% rev CAGR
4× P/S
2% dilution → $89 (+55% CAGR)
Revenue is already growing 37% with 13.7M members and counting.
Dilution is tightening.
Buybacks are on the table.
And the stock is sitting at $15 after a 40% drawdown YTD.
The part that gets me?
If SoFi @SoFi ever gets re-rated from a fintech P/S to a bank P/E — the multiple expansion alone could be a bigger catalyst than the revenue growth.
The bear case still more than doubles your money.
That's not the floor, that's the worst case.
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@frombroke2bull No just that noone really said sofi’s hitting 0.
People have said possible acquisition, going down to single digits, but quite disingenuous of you to claim “people say its going to 0.”
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@finance_intell Dilution is good long term, but not when it kills every single momentum a stock has. When $SOFI runs up again, they’ll dilute again. And again.
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$SOFI
The amount of people I see complain about share dilution but don’t actually understand it is insane.
Stock Market Nerds explains it well here
Stock Market Nerd@StockMarketNerd
Dilution is bad because it lowers profit per share. If profit rises more than share count & EPS rises because of the change in cap structure, there is no reason to have an issue with it. If there were more opportunities to do that again (which there aren’t. Balance sheet has been largely optimized) it would be stupid (in my opinion) to say no. Would you rather have them keep the expensive debt on the balance sheet, pay more interest expense & generate lower EPS? I’d rather have $100 in net income and 20 shares than $10 in net income & 10 shares.
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@ArcheValuesX @NVDA_Investor @CGInvesting10 I agree $SOFI does well but do you really think its going to 5x? 10x? Really?
The stock thats actually lower than it was at SPAC? No way.
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@JSTradeSJ @NVDA_Investor @CGInvesting10 That’s fine, and I agree, but also bad sentiment, and a misunderstanding of the business and what they’re building is what creates some of the best buying opportunities in the market. Bad sentiment isn’t forever, especially when there’s nothing actually wrong with the business.
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My motivation to continue to load $SOFI is through the roof…
The markets have been sleeping
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@ArcheValuesX @NVDA_Investor @CGInvesting10 Investors dont buy in because they’re worried about their shares diluting. Sometimes its not about business but just sentiment.
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@JSTradeSJ @NVDA_Investor @CGInvesting10 Dilution isn’t inherently a bad thing or a bear case, the dilution has been accretive to the business, and has sustained 40% revenue growth YOY, and why they can project 30% over the next 3. Unless you can point out the bear case, that’s not a good argument in and of itself
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@ArcheValuesX @NVDA_Investor @CGInvesting10 The real numbers we need to talk about isn’t EBITDA or PE or $NVDA’s number but the % dilution $SOFI does every year 😂 1.4 billion shares now - absolutely crazy.
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@NVDA_Investor @JSTradeSJ @CGInvesting10 Stop trying to get me to compare SoFi to NVDA lol they aren’t the same business or even in remotely the same stage. NVDA is arguably the best company on earth right now I’m not arguing against that what I am saying is you’re looking at SoFi wrong and misunderstand them.
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@DividendDrip If you start investing with $20K, you’ll end up with $10K 😂
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Talking to the Bulls:
How many $SOFI do you feel you need to retire early.
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@NVDA_Investor @ArcheValuesX @CGInvesting10 I can see where he’s coming from because NVDA did a 10:1 split 2 years ago and it ran up like crazy
But $SOFI is an online bank that requires a perfect storm of conditions to go up.
And $SOFI doesnt have them. Won’t have them for a while.
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@ArcheValuesX @JSTradeSJ @CGInvesting10 Purely on returns?
Bruh, Nvidia reported $58 billion net income last week
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@ArcheValuesX @NVDA_Investor @CGInvesting10 You need to justify why $SOFI is a better investment than NVIDIA lol
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@NVDA_Investor @CGInvesting10 Why are we acting like people only hold one stock😭 genuinely this has to be rage bait, I refuse to believe people are this ignorant.
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@TJTheWheelDeal @anthonynoto NOTHING has changed except for the eyes of the bag holders. Did the war end? Did inflation go down? Did rate cuts happen?
No.
No.
No.
1 interview where a CEO hypes his own company does nothing
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$Sofi bulls running to buy shares and LEAPS on Tuesday after watching the @anthonynoto interview on Basis Points!
GIF
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@DudeWhoInvests CEO did an interview - oh wow, iran war is over! Inflation went down! Rate are being cut!
No. Nothing changed. He went on youtube and hyped his stock. Thats it
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Kinda crazy that SoFi $SOFI CEO Anthony Noto has been dabbling with the idea of buying LEAPs on his own stock…
He has already bought ridiculous amounts of shares with his own money.
This is an even more bullish signal for the stock??
Do we copy trade him chat?!??
Not financial advice.
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@AverageDipBuyer @Micro2Macr0 If $SOFI gets acquired here then noto should be fired 100%
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@Micro2Macr0 Easiest money ever here. It will either get acquired at this valuation or it will reprice to at least 4-5x P/TBV to reflect earnings growth.
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Lower than $PYPL.
What a joke. $SOFI
stock goat@kylewhitegoat
$SOFI 🚨BREAKING NEWS🚨 Wall Street has priced SOFI at the lowest Price to book valuation of financial services companies (PRICE TO BOOK) $VISA 16.2 $HOOD 7.32 $AXP 6.38 $AFRM 6.11 $OWL 2.59 $JPM 2.27 $PYPL 1.92 $SOFI 1.91 (LAST) ❌ (Q1 2026 Revenue Growth Rate) $SOFI +42% (FIRST) 👀 $AFRM +32% $VISA +17% $HOOD +15% $JPM +13% $AXP +11% $OWL +10% $PYPL +7%
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@cmsinvests COMPLETELY different macro in 2025 vs 2026. Do better.
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Everyone laughed at $SOFI at $15.
Now the CEO Anthony Noto is publicly talking about buying LEAPS on his own company.
“When I’m buying the stock, it’s because I want the world to know I think it’s great value.” - Anthony Noto
Last time Noto went on a buying spree, $SOFI nearly 5X’d in months.
Now insiders are loading again…
and Wall Street still thinks this is just a bank.
Are they massively underestimating what $SOFI becomes over the next 5 years?
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@k2__investment But if you look at what’s gping on, an interview doesn’t fix anything.
NOTHING has changed except for the eyes of the bag holders. Did the war end? Did inflation go down? Did rate cuts happen?
No. Until all three happen the stock will remain here
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"Does it bother me the stock is down? Yeah, it f****** bothers me a ton."
$SOFI is down ~40% YTD, but the actual business is accelerating. Q1 delivered 41% revenue growth on over $1B in top-line.
As Jeff Bezos famously said: “The stock is not the company, and the company is not the stock.”
Anthony Noto is proving that right now. While the market panics, the CEO is aggressively stacking open-market shares.
His 2026 buys:
• Mar 2: 56,000 shares
• Mar 17: 28,900 shares
• May 8: 15,878 shares
• May 11: 15,545 shares
Noto now holds ~11.95M shares, putting over 75% of his net worth on the line.
“When I’m buying the stock, it’s because I want the world to know I think it’s great value.”
I’m played this the exact same way. I’ve been accumulating $SOFI in the $15s alongside him.
Fundamentals are completely decoupled from the share price right now.
SoFi@SoFi
Our CEO @AnthonyNoto sat down with @amitisinvesting and @stevenfiorillo on @basispointpod for an hour-long conversation on where SoFi is headed. Worth your Friday night. 🎙️
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@ColesTrades Its going to go down to 10-13 when rate goes up. Accumulate there.
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I’m buying more $SOFI shares this week!
After listening to Anthony Noto’s interview, it got me fired up for what is to come from this company in the near future.
I remember thinking I was late buying at $30…
Then we saw $20…
Now we’re sitting at $15…
If SoFi executes on their vision over the next few years, we’re all still early to this next bull run.
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$SOFI
• Revenue $1.1B up 41% YoY second straight billion dollar quarter
• Net income up 2.3x year over year to $167M
• Record loan originations $12.2B up 68% YoY
• 14.7 million members up 35% with a record 1.1 million added in Q1
• 18th consecutive Rule of 40 quarter with a score of 72
• SMB banking and stablecoin launching this summer
• CEO buying LEAPS with 75% of his net worth in the stock
YodaStocks@YodaStockInvest
How on earth is >40% revenue growth not GREAT anymore these days? We are so spoiled. They call Q1 $SOFI earnings mid… I added BIG yesterday because fundamentals DONT LIE in the long run.
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@LeifInvests So it just goes back to ath 2025…
While other stocks are running to 2x 3x and 4x.
And this is why us $SOFI investors will not beat the semi/AI investors
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$SOFI CEO Anthony Noto believes SoFi can become a trillion-dollar company.
Why don’t you?
SoFi is helping Americans achieve the American Dream.
Valuation looks attractive. 🔥
Growth remains staggering. 📈
The business has a unique combination of financial products that differentiates it from competitors. 🚀
$SOFI to $30 is coming by the latest 2027.
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