john yoepp
921 posts

john yoepp
@JYoepp
Stock/Futures/Options Trader, Quant/Algo Trader, Math Geek/Tutor, Retired Aerospace, @tastytrade, @BrooklynTech_HS ‘69, @NYUniversity ‘73, @FollowStevens ‘81
Melbourne, Florida Katılım Mart 2014
119 Takip Edilen91 Takipçiler

While I agree with this point about tracker ETFs not being the market they track, I am going to commit sacrilege and opine that static support and resistance levels do not "work" in a lot of commodities, especially ones like oil which get consumed. Let me elaborate.
The principle of price levels acting as support and resistance at prior highs/lows is borrowed from the stock market, where it works better. When you buy a stock, its only purposes for you are to cast off dividends, and to hopefully sell to someone else later on at a profit. So where you bought that stock matters a lot, and people pay attention to that. If they see their stock return to a level where they bought before, they may think that is a good price at which to buy and so they buy again, making support work. Selling at resistance works the same way, because people see a price and decide that is a good price at which to sell.
Support fails when the buyers defending that level run out of either ammunition or inclination to buy more. So breaking prior support can be a big deal.
In a stock, all of the players are in the same arena, and they all have the same motivations, to make money versus the purchase price. In consumable commodities, this is not the case. Some traders are speculators who buy and sell those items like stocks, hoping to make a profit. But a lot of the traders are producers and consumers of that commodity.
A refiner like Marathon Petroleum is always buying crude oil, but it never sells crude oil. It instead sells the refined products, and so the motivation of the buyer for that refiner has nothing to do with where he bought crude oil before. That buyer's only concern is about whether he can profitably buy oil at the current market price and turn that into other products which he can sell profitably at those products' current price. His price awareness and ensuing action is completely different from those of the speculator.
Crude oil price action is further muddied by the fact that most of us track the futures price. But crude oil futures expire every month, with quotes "rolling" to the next active month, one which traders of the expiring contract may not even have ever had a position.
I realize that what I am asserting here goes against the thinking of a lot of traders and analysts. You all are free to think whatever you want, and it is hard to change one's beliefs after holding them for such a long time. But if you would like to try proving me wrong, pull up a long chart of crude oil prices, and identify all of the prior highs and lows which you think ought to "matter" for acting as future support or resistance behavior. Then evaluate each of those, and see, did they "work"? In crude oil, and in a lot of other tradable items, you are going to be disappointed.
It is going to be hard for a lot of you to accept this. It was hard for me, years ago, before I finally realized the truth about this principle. It is okay if it takes you a while to accept it; I get it and know the struggle you are going to face in embracing that task.
For some further sacrilege, this same principle also applies to a lot of stock market indices, especially the obscure ones. Remember that support and resistance behavior only happen because enough traders see a security at a price level and make a trading decision based on that realization. So those behaviors only happen if there are people seeing prices and acting on them. How many people do you know who see the Russell 2000 Index (for example) at a certain numerical level, and decide to trade based on that, and do in big enough size to affect the action of those 2000 stocks?
Mark Ungewitter@mark_ungewitter
Pro-tip: Tracker ETFs such as USO, UUP, and the like don’t properly define support & resistance. These funds are designed to track daily price movements but drift over time. It pays to reference the underlying index when trading tracker ETFs.
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@Rainmaker1973 What about a mouth rinse with xylitol or use of a xylitol toothpaste? Both of those seem to work for me.
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Compound found in broccoli kills 90% of cavity-causing bacteria.
Scientists have discovered that a molecule produced when we eat cruciferous vegetables — like broccoli, kale, cabbage, and Brussels sprouts — can wipe out the bacteria that cause cavities. The compound, known as 3,3′-Diindolylmethane (DIM), killed 90% of Streptococcus mutans biofilms in lab tests, according to a new study by Ben-Gurion University, in collaboration with researchers from Singapore and China.
Streptococcus mutans is the main culprit behind plaque and tooth decay. It forms sticky biofilms on tooth enamel, which trap acids that erode the surface and cause cavities. DIM appears to disrupt the bacteria’s ability to form those films, effectively dismantling their protective layer and leaving them vulnerable.
The findings are still preliminary — the experiments were conducted in vitro, not yet in humans — but researchers believe DIM could someday be added to toothpaste or mouthwash to prevent decay naturally.

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@TheShiftJournal Why the music in the background? I have to stop listening. It makes no sense to my brain.
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@RichB118 Just bought the Kindle version. Can’t wait to absorb the content.
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Why do markets crash harder than they should?
Mandelbrot described the geometry. Taleb warned about the consequences. But what actually produces fat tails?
Feedback. The same mechanism that builds gentle trends in calm markets creates violent dislocations in stressed ones. The tails are not statistical accidents. They are structural consequences of how markets actually work.
Once you see this, you cannot unsee it. And it changes everything about how you think about risk, system design, and why trend following is structurally aligned with market reality.
I wrote a new post exploring this idea in depth: atstradingsolutions.com/why-markets-cr…
Markets are not random. They are alive.
📘 The Fractals of Finance — available now on Amazon: amazon.com/dp/B0GHTH1WNK
#TrendFollowing #FractalsOfFinance #ComplexityScience #SystematicTrading

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Who builds these apps where you cant read the notes and even some of the results? The app doesn’t allow the page to Zoom. And my vision is worse than usual because I’m sick. #ux #questdiagnostics

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@Rich_Minds_Prod @BenBergquam @hatz_steve @RealAmVoice @grok @grok is it possible that the only thing he did wrong was to amplify his voice using a bull horn?
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Unbelievable! Just now in Portland!
Portland PD arrest the only guy on a megaphone chanting in support of ICE and America, Thomas Wayne Allen! While the leftists chat death to ICE and America, this guy gets arrested for supporting us! How Pathetic!
Law & Border @RealAmVoice
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Are Markets Fractal? The Case for Maximum Diversification atstradingsolutions.com/are-markets-fr…
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Warren Buffett said there are 3 chapters investors must read.
After that, you know all you need!
1. Chapter 8 (The Intelligent Investor)
2. Chapter 20 (The Intelligent Investor)
3. Chapter 12 (Keynes' The General Theory)
I compiled them all in 1 PDF for free.
Do you want to receive it?
1. Like this post
2. Reply to post
3. Get immediate access

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@pyquantnews Here is a link that works: github.com/xgboosted/pand…
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@pyquantnews Is this the latest version of the pandas TA library? I’m using pandas-ta and it looks like it is no longer being maintained.
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Pandas TA is an easy to use Python 3 Pandas extension with 130+ Indicators.
Here's the GitHub repo:
github.com/twopirllc/pand…
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@IlyaSpivak Prices are starting to hit my red lines. Time to pull back to fight back.
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US PPI data showed tariff inflation is arriving for consumers. Retail sales held up for now, but souring consumer sentiment looks ominous.
#stocks #StockMarket #consumersentiment #UofM #inflation #recession #Macro #Trading #dollar
tastylive.com/news-insights/…
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