jacob punch

THURSDAY, March 26, 2026 will feature a rare desert tornado risk in the Middle East, including in Dubai, the UAE, northern Oman, Bahrain and Qatar. Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms with wind and hail are likely. Serious flooding – with up to a year's worth of rain – is expected as well. Widespread totals of 3-6 inches are likely, with locally greater amounts. Dubai, for instance, averages 4 inches of rain annually. The opulent enclave could see 3 to 6 inches by the end of the week. A similar event between April 15-17, 2024, dumped 6.45 inches of rain on Dubai International Airport, forcing the cancellation of more than 1,200 flights. Runways were left underwater. There could also be an isolated rotating storm in southwestern Saudi Arabia near the shores of the Red Sea where greater moisture is present. That risk will include portions of Makkah, Al-Baha, Aseer and Jazan provinces, as well as northwestern Tamaha and Azal governorates in Yemen. Farther inland, Najran province in southern Saudi Arabia could see an isolated haboob (dust storm) as thunderstorms exhale dry air exhaust and kick up dust.

While the weather is currently on the quieter side here in the CONUS, parts of the Middle East may experience a rare, high-end (even by our standards) severe weather setup on Thursday. A closed, compact and powerful upper trough will move across the region, with the exit region situated over parts is Saudi, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and UAE. Seasonally deep moisture will be present, with high instability likely. Some capping may be present, which could limit storm development, but could be just weak enough to promote more isolated supercellular storms, capable of all severe hazards. If storms form, a significant severe weather/tornado event may ensue across parts of the region, mainly closer to the coastal regions.