Jagaloon

@asymmetric_bets Great point- I think s1 will highlight how not only Starlink makes 70% of the total revenue, but its gross margins and cagr multitudes higher than space x. Will be very bullish for ast

$ASTS Normies generally don’t realize that 70% of SpaceX’s $2T value is in Starlink. They equate SpaceX with launching rockets. When the S-1 drops, a lot of people will be surprised which company is actually the closest available comp to SpaceX.

$ASTS While Kook thinks through what needs to happen at the fundamental level to achieve $900 by next year, I have recently been analyzing the slope of major trendlines that has been respected over multiple years at the technical level. There is a technical path to the $900 area, assuming many company milestones are met and the macro backdrop is supportive keeping the slope of these trends valid. The $900 target would simply be tagging the trendline support from last year sometime next summer. In other words, if we got to $900 by mid July 2027, that would be running into the trendline, from below, that we bounced off, from above, multiple times last year. Fantastic thread by Kook that is well worth your time. *NFA

@pharmdaz @BrettKrieger12 Exactly they will go with the proven solution first, but will be open to other solutions as well once they get that data. But first mover advantage is real here and the other players so far are focusing on creating their own aircraft/different approach to the market

@Jagaloon6 @BrettKrieger12 And the military isn’t big on jumping ship to a potentially better system (even though I think Merlin has the best). Once they gain trust, they tend to get sticky.

You’re not bullish enough $MRLN

Their moat is time and data-that’s why their active contract with the US Air Force is so critical. Basically they get paid to show safety, how their tech works. The next person who steps in will be years behind since Merlin can present this data and then start getting into more aircraft in military, while next competitor needs to go through that process I am sure that eventually shield AI and Anduril will pivot and come into space- but this market is big and can support multiple players. Regardless, with military they are going to want multiple choices/vendors. But if Merlin gets incorporated in something close to 1/3 aircraft in military in end state, the stock price will be many magnitudes higher than where it is now

@pharmdaz My question is what MOAT $MRLN has besides being further along with FAA licensing if a competitor (Shield AI as an example) wanted to go after the transport market

wsj.com/finance/invest… Interestingly $asts is same size now as space x was when Darsana invested in 2019. Will be interesting to see how big ast grows over next 7 years

Starting to scale into $mrln. This and $AUR to me are the best plays for physical AI and my bets for the future. If you use aurora as a corollary, they seem to ready to scale back half of 2026 and I think this will be a big theme in 2027. As far as merlin goes, obviously not nearly as mature as aurora and they are in their infant stages in comparison. But so far they are doing everything that you want to see at this stage- contract with the US airforce, partnerships in civil market as well as with foreign governments. Great business model, and if you listen to podcasts on autonomy, robotics, this is definitely the next frontier as the US will be in an arms race against China developing these two fields. The way i approach this investment is like a VC opportunity but signficantly derisked; you have control over when to buy, no predatory sale structure where someone takes 20% of your profit when its time to sell/liquidate, and you have all the financial info in front of you. As others have eloquently posted, there is a crazy asymetry for the TAM and the current marketcap. Other than ast, I don't see a better risk/reward currently on the market. The biggest weakness/question in my mind is the CEO- he is young and unfortunately things didn't work out for his previous company. But the #1 rule of investing is past performance does not dictate future results. It could have been an opportunity for him to learn; he has the vision, and I'm hoping to see his actions reflect his conviction(via his stock sales these coming years). The reassuring aspect though is their board; lots of great backgrounds and he can lean on their experience. He's also surrounded him with good talent with the other key executives so that's a plus. Personally not expecting stock to move until either physical AI gets hot or merlin wins a contract, whichever comes first. But I think this is a great opportunity to get VC returns, but with the fraction of risk. As long as you have some patience and the time horizon for a multi-year investment, I think shareholders will be happy here in the coming years

@LuckyStuey Poor form, learn to take an L lol. It’s clear that either you have an agenda(more likely scenario) or just delusional. Either way pathway remains same, muting you since you have nothing productive to post and at this point just spamming my feed for ast news

Why are you lying? He said "Today we're shipping the next batch" Seriously, can't you just tell the truth for once is your lives!!?

@Nananahnahna Agreed I think Aurora is gonna have a big year in 2027. All the pieces in their ecosystem are there, they just need to start scaling and it looks like they’re on track to do it

@Jagaloon6 Great read. Also true for $AUR imo.

1) Was getting ready to fire up this post with the bears/FUDsters/poker players turned satellite consultants and supposed D2D enthusiasts recently coming out in full force, but as always $asts pulls the rabbit out of the hat and surprises the market. Instead, wanted to focus on the biggest cheat code in investing- identifying secular trends, winners in that field, and most importantly finding them during their inflection point in their company life cycle. Of course, much easier said than done, but I believe AST is finally there and fulfills all three criteria. These type of companies all have similar characteristics, and if you can capture them during their inflection point, it's a life changing experience for the portfolio

I try to shy away from giving PT’s now since I feel like it does more harm than good and sets expectations too high. But the way I see it, ast will grow faster than Palantir and they’re both companies that tap enterprise and military markets but ast has consumer market as well- Palantir 2025 revenues were roughly 3.35 billion, and Hennessy in their latest investor update thinks ast from military revenues alone will be in 2.4-4.4 billion annually at some point. And look at Cerebras IPo- they are trading at 120x sales and we don’t even know how legitimate their tech is/ if it will be wildly adopted.of course, still need more data points from Cerebras to see how they trade over next 120 days. But with ast the demand signals are clear as day and they are clear cut leader. Space is heating up, so I don’t think it’s outside of the realm of possibility in 2027 they trade like 100x forward revenue, but time will tell

@Jagaloon6 What do you think is possible in terms of price movements in 2026 and 2027? Current market cap is $30B. Guidance is $1B revenue in 2027. A lot of growth is already priced in or not?

@MWM76 Thanks Mike! Great to see you again as well

@Jagaloon6 Great post brother, I remember you from the old days, glad to see you again!

6) If you combine all these factors, $asts has all the signs they are the next transformative company- they are the clear leader in the field and look to have a long-lasting moat, D2D is becoming a secular trend, but most importantly seem to be at their inflection point in their company life cycle. If history serves as a guide, the value creation over the next 5-10 years likely will be much larger than anyone can model or the market can predict. There will be up and down days, but based on ast's execution, their many tailwinds, I think it's likely we witness the start of their S curve move.

5) The other remaining question is if direct to device is truly a secular trend. There is plenty of evidence that suggests it, but amazon and starlink are validation for this. Say what you want about Elon, but he is one of the best at identifying trends early. Starlink spending 25 billion and amazon 10 billion respectively on spectrum tells you where both think this market is going

4) Do all these principles/characteristics sound familiar? It should, because $asts is in the midst of doing all the above and market has not yet seen it. Take a look at the trends we are currently seeing: -rapid infusion of capital into space from US government -economies of scale with launch costs and with manufacturing costs(BW3 cost~120 million, now current block~22 millon despite being roughly 5x bigger and heavier) -rapid increase of manufacturing capacity(yes, there have been delays but ast close~ making 6 sats/month) -overwhelming demand for commercial service from MNOs, with a 1.2billion backlog, increase to 60 MNO agreements, and tmobile and deusch telecom imminently flipping -revenue in 2026 exponentially ramps towards end of year into 2027 -only 1 player on market currently that can offer full broadband so extremely skewed supply/demand dynamics -tech lead keeps growing, with starlink has no access to any MNO/terrestrial spectrum and ast achieving ~98mphs speed on block 1 bluebirds and likely will 2x that speed with block 2

3) What characteristics did all these companies exhibit during their inflection points that allowed them to take large market share and grow exponentially during their runs? -overwhelming technological advantage -rapid economies of scale and infrastructure in place to scale -extremely lopsided supply/demand dynamics -huge market that exponentially grows with time

2) If we take a stroll down memory lane, there are a few examples in mind: Apple- created this blue ocean market of smartphones and iphone in 2007; however, company did not take off until Tim Cook took over as ceo in 2011 who was an operations genius- he shored up their supply chains, rapidly scaled, and company subsequently inflected in 2013, and went on 13x run with dividends+stock buybacks during his tenure Nvidia- for the longest time was a gaming company. however, they created these GPU's which were unique, and these GPU's were found to be an integral building block for AI which became a secular trend and company inflected around 2018 and has been on a 38x run since Tesla- in their early years, were the laughing stock of the market as it was seen an impossible task to make EV's at scale and with profitable margins. In 2018, they got through manufacturing bottlenecks, benefitted from economies of scale as battery costs rapidly dropped, and flipped ebidta positive in q3 2018 and subsequently went on a 20x run over the next 3 years Micron- the memory market has been the definition of volatility. The business was cyclical, with prices/demand constantly fluctuating. Many companies in the memory cycle went bankrupt, and the sector consolidated into 3 big players. However, micron inflected roughly~ 1 year ago- their infrastructure has always been in place but their inflection was due to memory becoming a secular trend. Since that fundamental shift, they've been on a ~7x run with still plenty of room to go

OMG I cannot believe that the SpaceMob thinks she's talking about $ASTS as the Goliath in this quote. Their level of delusion knows no limits🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

@DJ_HighAnxiety @MGluck23 @thekookreport Thanks for those kind words guys. Just been busy with life and the spacemob community is so strong, haven't really had much to add. Got another post soon that I haven't really seen on the way I see things right now

@MGluck23 @thekookreport @Jagaloon6 Yea, no posts/replies from Jag since early December. I hope everything is okay. He always has good insights.

Crazy…. the consultants say $ASTS is a bagel but my hundreds of hours of work with a team of hundreds of independent researchers around the globe came to a different conclusion, which was unambiguously and instantly confirmed by Grok. Pick your fighter.

This is a well thought out, written model by the guys at Mach 33 modeling D2D market size by 2030~37billion. Of note, this model is purely for consumer market, and excludes revenue that could be generated from US military/NATO/emergency backup network/enterprise back up network/AI devices/drones/Autonomous vehicles/IOT/commercial IOT/asset tracking Additionally, they also remark that their estimates for ARPU likely are underestimations given that demand>>>>>>supply given the limited options for providers for D2D. In essence, their model is likely a severe base case/underestimation of the true market size of D2D by then research.33fg.com/analysis/37b-d…

@Defiantclient2 No - can you share the best D2D TAM estimates from an analyst that you agree with? Or even AST revenue projections that you believe in.

Crazy how much flack I'm getting from the $ASTS gang for simply agreeing with $IRDM that the projections for D2D TAM are likely overstated... It's not my take. It's literally Matt Desch's viewpoint. Go yell at him. I just agree with it.