Tarmac

@SantiagoAuFund It's literally just about enforcing the social contract btwn governments + citizens. Governments can't leverage a money-printer to fund spending and can't issue infinite debt 🤷. Tax mechanism will ultimately enforce accountability on governments for their actions.

I notice many bitcoin advocates (who argue it will free world from US/fiat oppression) simultaneously defend Bukeles strong man tactics as ends justifying the means. Further evidence that most who proclaim to love liberty actually just like having their own enforcer in power.

@Pentosh1 @Pentosh1 haven't heard you talk on a lot of things in a while. 1.) Equity charts - appear to be rolling over 2.) Interest-rate lag effects 3.) Probabilities of recession and how crypto navigates that

@Florida_Btc @_Checkmatey_ Lol no. We haven't. Growth, consumer spending, manufacturing sales and everything the NBER looks at when measuring recession have all been non-recessionary. The next ~6 months are the danger zone. 🫡

@JasonGeller10 @_Checkmatey_ We have been in one for over a year.

The ultimate bear case for #Bitcoin is fiscal discipline by governments. Good luck with that.

@_Checkmatey_ I agree with you. The issue is that *many other people will sell their BTC because of a recession*. That's how recessions work 🤷. Nothing is immune. Afterwards, 🖨️💸💸💸 It's just a matter of timelines/timing.

@JasonGeller10 Im not selling my bitcoin because of a recession. They have no choice but to print their way out of it.

@LukeGromen @BickerinBrattle @JackFarley96 Well... The obvious answer would be the next generation who is burdened by said debt 🤷. But this would also be accompanied by pain for them simultaneously. So... 🤷🫡

USTs are the collateral underpinning the whole system. As they decline in price, the system needs to either cough up more collateral, or shrink balance sheet. So, again, I ask - who gains from a vicious cycle of credit reduction, other than maybe a few short sellers, & then gold holders when the whole system collapses?

Out now - how @LukeGromen is thinking about the current stress in the Treasury market: - Unless oil and/or the dollar goes down a lot, "the beatings will continue" in the bond market - The pain in bonds will continue & continue until there is a 2019-style spike except instead of in repo it's in the long-end of Western sovereign bond markets - This market meltdown will require - Federal Reserve intervention (rate cuts? QE? Repo?) in order to prevent market malfunction - America's Debt-to-GDP ratio is too high to stomach 5.5% rates... government needs to inflate the debt away by keeping rates below inflation, if the Fed sticks to this playbook it will have implications for hard assets such as gold & Bitcoin This is an early release on @X - will go live on regular channels later Thursday (tomorrow) as usual Enjoy 🔥

@LukeGromen "Get DXY down" How? By what mechanism? FX Swaps? In the event of this type of a mechanism... What happens to the foreign currencies the US purchases? We simply hold them?

Note the order of operations that happened today - it's really important: 1. Get DXY down 50bps 2. Get oil down 2% 3. TLT goes from gapping down on the open to green on the day. The beatings in UST duration will continue until the USD and oil are weakened significantly.

@Upsndownsbutup @AlgodTrading 🤷 Best of luck dude. Nothing is recession-proof. And being a contrarian works sometimes. Not always. It's why markets bottom after recessions begin with ~100% accuracy. Again, I'd encourage you to look at the data. If stocks take out October lows... 🫡.

@JasonGeller10 @AlgodTrading Buy

People that are praying for the downfall of Binance are better shorting or fully in cash Literally the only thing that could push us below 10k and put is behind another few years I genuinely hope Binance will be okay

@Upsndownsbutup @AlgodTrading Then look at the historical data 🤷. Nothing is recession-proof. Look at gold's performance. Look at high-beta tech's performance. And then good luck 🫡. Maybe we don't get a recession. Anything can happen.

@JasonGeller10 @AlgodTrading People living paycheck to paycheck don't pay stocks and crypto 😅

@Upsndownsbutup @AlgodTrading Lol I'm sure people said the same thing about stocks before prior recessions 🤣. Remind me what % of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck? We live in a debt-based society. Deflation = death. It's literally the thing that #BTC stands against. The irony isn't lost.

@JasonGeller10 @AlgodTrading Doubt that people are exposed to such a degree where they have to sell crypto and/or btc to cover for food.

@Jenny3296602 @tradinglord Change of what? I'm an advocate of the industry and a crypto bull. Just not in a recessionary environment 🤣. Doesn't mean that I don't believe in the future potential + industry 🤷.

@JasonGeller10 @tradinglord That sounds like a nice change!

This was excellently done 🙏.

@I_took_your_cat @AlgodTrading I won't speak to the stablecoins portion 🤷. That being said, markets historically bottom subsequent to the onset of recession. Yield Curve inversion = 100% hit rate for recession. Breaking the October low in equities + recession would obliterate crypto/BTC.

@JasonGeller10 @AlgodTrading It's not even a black swan, but merely an organic continuation in a sick economy. The only reason crypto is trading at these valuations is because its price been propped up by unbacked stablecoins printed out of thin air. There is no liquidity in market to otherwise support it.

@Upsndownsbutup @AlgodTrading Depends what you mean by "forced liquidation". If people lose their jobs in a recession or there's heavy asset-price declines, people sell what they can 🤷. People sell when they have to, not when they want to. A decline in economic conditions would absolutely facilitate that.

@JasonGeller10 @AlgodTrading I also believe forced liquidation is the only thing that can push us lower than the 15k. People already sold what they wanted to sell. Binance is the key to cheap sats.

@Turbonizer1 @AlgodTrading That's the same message that @CelsiusNetwork and @Mashinsky peddled before they rugpulled tens of thousands of people and defrauded people out of their retirement funds 🤷. There is no kumbaya moment with fraudsters and grifters.

@AlgodTrading It truly is sad to see people here wanting/cheering for someone’s downfall not knowing the harsh consequences. Guys we win when we are together!

@david_seroy @lylepratt @GeorgeGammon Uuuhhhh... In a Bitcoin world, you coupd *absolutely* profit by lending #Bitcoin. You'd just need the productivity of the borrower to outstrip the rise in value of the underlying BTC. Hyper-competitive for productivity gains 🤷.

It's true lenders cannot profit by lending Bitcoin. But they can profit by lending *against* Bitcoin as collateral. The centralizing force shifts from: - 'we pay you higher interest to fractional reserve your deposits' to 'you pay us less interest so we can rehypothecate' Essentially, however strong the disincentive to lend Bitcoin becomes, an equal and opposite incentive to borrow against it arises. Booth completely ignores this afaict.

My summary of this convo is that @GeorgeGammon can't imagine a world in which most people literally *can not* borrow money because the deflationary free market doesn't allow lenders to profit at scale (therefore lenders won't offer loans to the vast majority of people). He says "the free market will offer loans because people want them". This is false if the lenders can't profit from doing so. The nuance is that it will take (a lot) time and failure for them to learn that they can't profit.

@Jenny3296602 @tradinglord Nope, and I'm excited for all the further innovation that it will bring.

@JasonGeller10 @tradinglord Was encryption the same back then?

$BKX at the same level as when SVB declared bankruptcy and breaking a 15 year trend to the downside. $JNK breaking out of a wedge + losing support to the downside. $JPY heading towards its worst weekly/monthly close since 1990. 🍿