Jason Stapleton ☕️ ✍🏼 🎙️

Theft.

@austincurtis @ouraring That’s not a bad point. I do tend to be calm under pressure. I just assumed as was good at pushing down massive fear and anxiety.

@Jason_Stapleton @ouraring I think that is the definition of ptsd. Right, I bet your heart was calm back when you were kicking in doors across the pond, right?

Hey @ouraring. Why is it that when I’m stressed and working my ring says I’m restored but when I’m sitting on the couch relaxing it says I’m stressed?

@0x_Discover These posts are all lies. I’ve been trading for 20 years. They did the same shit when Forex got popular and they were selling auto trading systems. If you buy into this shit you deserve to lose all your money.

THE BEST WEATHER TRADER ON POLYMARKET turned $9 → $4,600 on a single bet No one talks about him Save this — you’ll want it later He trades only one niche: weather markets No noise No guessing Just execution Pulls $1,500–$2,000 daily His edge: buys contracts at 95¢–99¢ locks near risk-free profit into resolution Profile:@coldmath" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@coldmath I started copying him 5 days → +$450 Bot:t.me/KreoPolyBot?st… Wallet: 0x594edb9112f526fa6a80b8f858a6379c8a2c1c11 Paste the wallet adjust size let it run You’ll understand fast why it works

@0xPhantomDefi These posts are all lies. I’ve been trading for 20 years. They did the same shit when Forex got popular and they were selling auto trading systems. If you buy into this shit you deserve to lose all your money.

A kid built a Polymarket arbitrage bot… on an iPad. No coding. Just Claude. Started with ~$1,400. Deployed it. Went to sleep. Overnight it scanned 50+ markets and executed automatically. Woke up to +$1,940. Copytrade: t.me/PolyGunSniperB… No screens. No stress. No manual trades. Just setup → deploy → let it run. The barrier isn’t capital anymore. It’s knowing what to build.

@LunarResearcher These posts are all lies. I’ve been trading for 20 years. They did the same shit when Forex got popular and they were selling auto trading systems. If you buy into this shit you deserve to lose all your money.

A Jane Street trader recognized my dashboard before I did Coffee shop in Lisbon. Time Out Market. I was answering emails, the bot was running on the side. He sat down without asking. "That's a Polymarket terminal. You wrote that yourself" I did. 27 days ago. Haven't touched it since. He laughed once. "Define haven't touched" I haven't opened the code in 27 days. The bot trades on its own. I check it Saturday mornings. He pulled his chair around to my side of the table. "Walk me through it" A green fill landed on the screen mid-sentence. +$94 on an ETH ETF flow market. The agents do it. There are four of them. They live in a queue.json file on a $5 VPS in Germany. They talk through the queue. They do not talk to me. Agent 1 reads the book. Polymarket has 500 active markets at any time. The official Rust CLI lets a bot watch all of them with no API key. github.com/Polymarket/pol… It scores each one on three things. Gap above 7 cents. Depth above $50K. Resolution under 168 hours. 93% of markets die at this gate. 487 become 35. He stopped me. "Where is the edge actually coming from" The wallets. Polymarket is on-chain. 86 million trades, every entry, every exit, every wallet, all public. Somebody indexed it. github.com/warproxxx/poly… I wrote one Claude prompt. Rank every wallet with more than 100 trades and a win rate above 70%, sort by profit, export the top 50. Claude chewed through 14,000 wallets in 4 minutes. Returned 47. The top 20 of those 47 made more than the bottom 13,000 wallets combined. He went quiet. "That's not a feature. That's a list of people to copy" That's exactly what agent 2 does. Pulls the live holdings of the 47 every 30 seconds. Cross-checks against the 35 markets that survived the scanner. If 3 of the 47 are in the same position, it's real. Copytrade if you don't want to build it: @lunar" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">kreo.app/@lunar The trades I ignore are more important than the ones I take. Sports markets are priced too tight, win rate 52% at best. Markets under $50K depth, slippage eats the edge. Holding to settlement gives back 15-30% of profit every single time. Agent 4 fixes that one. The 47 whales exit at 73% of max profit on average. They never hold to resolution. They redeploy. github.com/Polymarket/age… Mine cuts at 85% of expected move or a 3x volume spike. Whichever comes first. He asked about consensus. Three sub-strategies vote on every trade. Arbitrage. Convergence. Whale copy. Two agree, full Kelly. One alone, quarter Kelly. Disagree, no trade. That one rule killed 40% of losing trades the day I added it. He pulled out his phone. "What was the seed" $200. "And now" $14,300. 271 trades. 74% win rate. Sharpe 2.47. He stared at the wallet for a long time. "At Jane Street we run thirty engineers and a $400M book to chase Sharpe 2. You're doing it from a Time Out Market with a Hetzner box" The full stack: Claude API $20 Hetzner $5 Repos free Total $25/mo The seventh repo is the one that ties it together. github.com/dylanpersonguy… 53,000 lines of TypeScript. I use three of seven strategies. Three focused agents beat seven unfocused ones. He DMed me on Sunday. "Spent yesterday rebuilding it. Mine made $11 on a test wallet overnight. The whale layer is the part nobody on my desk would think of" I told him the layer is in the repo. The data is on chain. The repos are free. The window is open. I am still not touching it.

@0xwhrrari These posts are all lies. I’ve been trading for 20 years. They did the same shit when Forex got popular and they were selling auto trading systems. If you buy into this shit you deserve to lose all your money.

Was at a rooftop bar in Dumbo last night. Anthropic alignment lead. Drunk. Tie loose, second bottle of mezcal in his hand. I had my laptop open at the bar. Running a position check. He saw the screen. "Is that Polymarket" I said yeah. "You're trading it with Claude" I nodded. He dragged a stool over. "I'm on the alignment side. We red-team this exact setup in lab. You're running it from a bar" I asked what red-team meant. "We simulate what happens when someone hands Opus a wallet dataset and tells it to find the winners. You're the thing we wrote a 40-page risk doc about" I showed him the scanner. 86 million historical trades. Public dataset - github.com/warproxxx/poly… - nobody outside Polymarket maintainers touches it. One prompt. 14,000 wallets in. Filter by floor win rate, trade count band, average size, recency. 10 wallets out. Opus 4.7 chewed it in 38 minutes on a $5 VPS. "Why only 10" Because the public leaderboard is a trap. Top whales have 14,000 followers each. Price moves before you fill. The real edge is wallets nobody copies yet. He stared at the list. "And the filter" Min 40 trades, max 200. 74 plus lifetime WR. Sub $1500 average size. Active in last 45 days. Rolling 21-day floor WR with 3 qualifying windows. "Why those bands" Above 200 trades is a fund. Below 40 is luck. Everything between is the actual edge. He took a long pull from the mezcal. A fill landed mid-conversation. +$94 on a Solana ETF market. He set the bottle down. "How does it decide to enter" Each wallet only prints in its competence zone. 83% WR on crypto. 51% on politics. 47% on sports. Copy them only inside their zone. Drop everything else. "That's domain conditioning. We write papers about it. Nobody ships it" I ship it. On a $5 box. Four Python scripts. Claude Code wrote 80% in a weekend. "Entries" Median delay 21 minutes after the source. Retail anchoring decays fast. Bet size is a signal. Normal $900, sudden $1,600 means 1.8 sigma conviction. I size up. "Exits" Mirror the source. Capture 74.1% of max gain median. Stale hold over 18 hours under 3% unrealized gets cut. "Sharpe" 2.67. 253 trades. 72.7% WR. $200 seed. $13.7K bankroll now. +$14,985 net in 31 days. He stared at the city for a long time. "You know we're hiring evaluators. Base is $400k" I said the bot makes more than that on the $5 box. "Touche" Execution runs through their official CLI - github.com/Polymarket/pol… - orderbook layer, no middleman. For people who don't want to build it - t.me/polyfirebot?st… He pulled out his phone, started typing, stopped. "If anyone asks I never told you about the dataset" I said you didn't. I found it myself. He smiled. "Good answer" He stood up on the ledge. I told him to sit down. He sat down.

@0x_Discover These posts are all lies. I’ve been trading for 20 years. They did the same shit when Forex got popular and they were selling auto trading systems. If you buy into this shit you deserve to lose all your money.

A trader made $49,000 in profit in just 2 weeks. I’ve never seen a setup like this before. His balance was almost doubling every day. Started with just $500 + a $20 Claude subscription. I spent 10 hours breaking down his strategy: He focuses on arbitrage between BTC spot price and Polymarket odds, entering when they diverge and exiting when they converge. No predictions. No guessing. The math already knows the outcome. He just reads the data and takes the money. Copy it here:

@MrJohnSimeon So how many years should it take? He was arrested in 2019.

@Jason_Stapleton In fairness, one shooter is a lot easier to breakdown than a bunch of people who were involved with Epstein at varying levels.

In 12 hours we know more about the attempted WH correspondence dinner shooter than anyone in the Epstein files.

@primemans Is it?? Is it INSANE!?

THIS IS INSANE 🤯 Claude is now built right into Word—and it’s actually insane. No more staring at blank pages or wasting hours formatting documents manually. Here’s everything you need to know 👇

@PaulYoungX I’m still going to watch. But I feel like you’ve way oversold it.

Cet atelier de 30 minutes, animé par le créateur de Claude Code, vous en apprendra plus sur le vibe-coding que 100 tutoriels vidéo sur YouTube. Ajoutez-le à vos favoris et consacrez-y 30 minutes dès aujourd'hui. Cette vidéo transformera votre utilisation de Claude à jamais.

@FightStorage Maybe try reading your AI generated post before you post it.

In the UK 🇬🇧 , 18-year-old Millie Taplin went to a nightclub for the first time on her birthday. A stranger offered her a drink, saying, “Try this vodka lemonade.” She took a sip. Within seconds, her face went numb, her fingers started cramping and twisting strangely, and her whole body locked up completely. She was fully conscious the entire time — trapped inside her own body, mentally screaming in panic because she couldn’t move a muscle. Doctors at the hospital suspected she had been given two unknown substances: one to paralyze her and another to knock her out. Tests couldn’t identify them. Her mother later shared the story as a warning: “Never accept a drink from a stranger.” This keeps the flow, tension, and message intact while feeling fresh. Let me know if you want it shorter, longer, or in a different tone!

We used to at least pretend to prosecute super villains. How times have changed.

@AuAgPb_1984 @cnnbrk If I had a nickel for every someone said, “You don’t get it.” :)

@Jason_Stapleton @cnnbrk YoU dOnT gEt iT, JaSoN. It'S 5D cHeSs. TrUmP iS aLwAyS 10 sTePs aHeAd!

President Donald Trump said he’d agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran, less than two hours before his 8 p.m. deadline to destroy a “whole civilization.” Trump said the ceasefire agreement was made on the condition that Iran agree to reopen the critical Strait of Hormuz. cnn.it/4sUgNFV

Hey! There’s a face I recognize.

@OctillionthJoe @FiveGuys Definitely fast food.

@Jason_Stapleton @FiveGuys Is Five Guys considered fast food? I thought it was more of a casual restaurant.

Just paid $18 for a burger and Diet Coke at @FiveGuys. WTF? Never again. I’m done with these fast food places pricing food like they’re a decent mid-tier restaurant.

@itsthatgigi I think you should stop looking for a man’s approval and do what makes YOU happy.

Guys should I change my hair to brown? Be honest

@LukeBarnett That’s what we call a bad beat.

Are you there, God? It's me, Luke.