JesterTheGoose

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JesterTheGoose

JesterTheGoose

@Jesterthegoose

Polymarket Trader/Researcher/Developer Started with 2 dollars (really!), now at 150k https://t.co/K9brrnDMhq

Katılım Aralık 2023
229 Takip Edilen1.7K Takipçiler
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JesterTheGoose
JesterTheGoose@Jesterthegoose·
Didn't think I'd ever see myself in the NYTimes.... "@JesterTheGoose, a college student studying computer science, deployed an open-source machine-learning tool to predict the outcome of the Chess World Championships. He has turned $2 into more than $150,000." That was my very first big winner. Went from like 20 -> 600 dollars because of it. Crazy memories...
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SKi🦉
SKi🦉@TheNotoriousSKi·
Haha now what? Clarify YES to resolve based on reality Clarify NO to uphold previous precedent
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SKi🦉@TheNotoriousSKi

@llamaonthebrink I love how they have a policy of issuing clarifications for everything, know the possible contentious dispute that might occur, but won’t clarify their stance on the “expected scenario” until after it happens.

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Car
Car@CarOnPolymarket·
Joe Biden won $101,463.32 predicting PSG would win the Champions League
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JesterTheGoose
JesterTheGoose@Jesterthegoose·
@BrokieTrades Who knows who your counterparty is? They are shit at spotting insiders (and when they do, you sure as hell ain't getting a refund, they are keeping that money). At least on Polymarket, I can tell who I'm trading against.
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yungstalin
yungstalin@cynical_reason·
@Jesterthegoose how big was your edge on the outright? or was it a live market making thing
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JesterTheGoose
JesterTheGoose@Jesterthegoose·
Didn't think I'd ever see myself in the NYTimes.... "@JesterTheGoose, a college student studying computer science, deployed an open-source machine-learning tool to predict the outcome of the Chess World Championships. He has turned $2 into more than $150,000." That was my very first big winner. Went from like 20 -> 600 dollars because of it. Crazy memories...
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JesterTheGoose
JesterTheGoose@Jesterthegoose·
Trump on Prediction Markets just now: Bullish!
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Nost
Nost@AsymmInvesting·
@Jesterthegoose Seems quite dangerous too. Makes me wonder if a dem admin will try and nuke it to spite the trump admin.
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Adam Iscoe
Adam Iscoe@iscoe·
got inside the world of prediction market sharps for @NYTmag—on the ground in Dallas with a proto-hedge fund called MAGA Kiwi Club, in their group chats and Discord servers, and watching them hoover up what they call "dumb money." read this
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JesterTheGoose
JesterTheGoose@Jesterthegoose·
@JenShahade Yes, although mostly they were just slower to update prices. It was a fun experience, and great for a guy with a low balance like me, but I probably spent 60+ hours over all the games, to make 500 dollars total lol.
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Jennifer Shahade
Jennifer Shahade@JenShahade·
@Jesterthegoose Interesting since everyone has access to super computer analysis! Did others make bad bets using commentary stream computer analysis? While your model synthesized with Leela and other engines too?
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JesterTheGoose
JesterTheGoose@Jesterthegoose·
@JenShahade The overall thing I was betting on was the winner of each game. (Gukesh, Ding, or draw). I did that by analyzing individual moves as they happened (are they good/bad/whatever)
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Jennifer Shahade
Jennifer Shahade@JenShahade·
@Jesterthegoose Does this mean you bet on individual moves or the result as the game progressed? Or more exotic stuff like time per move? Still cool that you went from 20 to 600 on it. Rare story of financial success from watching chess!!
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JesterTheGoose
JesterTheGoose@Jesterthegoose·
Chess isn't a big enough market, unfortunately, I love it though. I bet on a whole bunch of stuff now. My Polymarket profile is linked in my Twitter bio. I live traded the individual chess games; there were markets for each one. Reading through some of my old messages is quite funny.
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Jennifer Shahade
Jennifer Shahade@JenShahade·
@Jesterthegoose At first it reads as you won 150k on the World Champs! Your elaboration makes more sense. Q: What was the bet and did you make other big chess bets or moved on to other things?
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VS
VS@sev_kach·
@Jesterthegoose Is everything the author wrote about you true?
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JesterTheGoose
JesterTheGoose@Jesterthegoose·
@IceFrosst lol bad look. It’s just poly being slow cause I was bonding a tweet marker. I actually made like 1k today. Should update next hour.
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CSPTrading.eth
CSPTrading.eth@CSP_Trading·
@Jesterthegoose good article, they got a little bit of evrything, even CSP cord made its way in there
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JesterTheGoose
JesterTheGoose@Jesterthegoose·
@0xd1namit That's the secondary purpose, but yes! It'll be public soon!
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JesterTheGoose
JesterTheGoose@Jesterthegoose·
This is only for the p99 (worst 1%). At least according to my own stats (but cool, and very good regardless). Also, this is a sneak peek of my latest project👀
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Josh@devjoshstevens

What a day, but on a more positive note, we did a release this morning, and the latency on the CLOB is now 500% better. You should see a huge difference. Thanks for waiting for the fix. It was a hard one because it was at the lowest level of the services. We have many other fixes coming in the next weeks to take this down even further.

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Keşfet

@TheNotoriousSKi @CarOnPolymarket @BrokieTrades @cynical_reason @FormerCFTCGC @DustinGouker @AsymmInvesting @iscoe