Jimmy Law

Causation? Or correlation? Since 2016, England lost almost 1 million people in the workforce due to long term sickness. Since 2016, England has almost 1 million fewer people who did any running or jogging, a proxy for physical activity, over the prior year. You can blame Covid-19 but the trend started well before that. We keep cutting funding for recreational sports and physical activites, but the reality is that a more physically active population supports a healthier and larger workforce, which supports a stronger economy. It pays for itself long-term. Source: SportEngland, Office of National Statistics

@JensenHuang @nvidia It still blows my mind sometimes that openly sharing tech this powerful can actually be the more optimal strategy when you zoom out enough

For my first post, I’m sharing a letter @NVIDIA signed on why open models matter. AI will transform every industry, power every company, and be built by every country. Open models strengthen safety and cybersecurity, accelerate innovation and diffusion, and enable sovereignty. The world needs both frontier closed models and frontier open models. images.nvidia.com/pdf/Open-Weigh…

@FT Agree this is beneath you. This is why i havent read you for a long long time now

@ZackPolanski Please present a better plan?

Deeply irresponsible. We're in a climate crisis. This is such a terrible start. bbc.co.uk/news/articles/…

@peterrhague Just grow a pair and kick it

How do you punish this behaviour? Its reckless and antisocial, but prison would obviously be excessive. Our other options - community service, fines etc. - he would probably laugh off and ignore. Maybe we need to bring back the stocks...

Sorry but i stopped at "20 years in private equity", "private equity" is exactly whats wrong with our economy. Everything of any value sold to the highest bidder trying to extract the highest IRR returning capital ultimately to some american investors. Thats not how you rebuild a country.

I'm the son of an electrician and a postal worker, raised in a small town somewhere in the former Soviet Union where the height of ambition for almost everyone was landing a job at the local steel mill. At forty, I have nearly 20 years in private equity behind me and a dozen completed projects that actually served people — from one of Europe's largest dairy companies to a fintech with 350,000 users. And here I am, debating whether capitalism gives an ordinary guy a shot at success — with a man who got rich trading on the stock market, whose own work made him a millionaire, who wrote a No. 1 Sunday Times bestseller (unlike me, alas) and makes around a million a year from his media business. Are we seriously having this conversation? I actually sat down this morning (yes, on a Saturday) and looked up the ONS numbers. 53% of the UK population lives in households that receive more from the state — in cash benefits plus NHS and education — than they pay in all taxes, direct and indirect. Among retired households it's 90%. A household doesn't become a net contributor until roughly the 7th income decile. And the top 10% alone pay more in tax than the bottom 60% of the population combined — £64,500 per household per year more than they get back. If even that isn't "fair," what numbers would be? Forgive me, but I believe the problem — in the UK and across the once-Christian countries of Europe — is the same: spending money on things it shouldn't be spent on. Uncontrolled welfare-seeking migration with no intention of assimilating, even in theory. Or the wars that no one is even trying to end with peace. The UK's tax burden is heading toward a post-war high; the answer to that is not more redistribution, and the problem is not capitalism.

If you organize pickup soccer, this might make your life easier. List your games, manage players and grow your community in one place 👇 connect.gameonactive.co.uk #PickupSoccer #SoccerOrganizer #soccer #pickup #sports

@travisk @DavidSacks @elonmusk Maybe stay out of this if your own biz is struggling?

.@DavidSacks @elonmusk The Chinese models are distilling off American models… my guess is American models can’t legally do this without being sued by Chinese AI companies in American courts .. 🤔.. and distilling a Chinese model is really theft from an American company… What should American AI and IP policy be here? If distillation isn’t enforced against, then everyone should be able to distill from everyone else.. otherwise one arm tied behind American models’ backs. Maybe systems need to get better at preventing distillation techniques, and problem solves itself?

@chrismartenson Where are the people quoting the ONS data saying the opposite now?

Plutarch said, "The oldest and most fatal ailment of all republics is a gap between the rich and the poor." This chart of the wealth of the 0.00001% was created and fostered by Federal Reserve policy and government decisions. This is an abomination, and it explains a lot.

@KobeissiLetter This reminds me of 2008, everyone wants to go long, now they want leverage too to boost returns further, a few smart investment banks can see the end coming, sells the leverage products for fees and get to short the bubble on the cheap too

US Leveraged ETF growth is exploding: The number of US-listed leveraged ETFs is up to a record 700, now more than double the number seen at the end of 2024. More than 400 of these funds are leveraged single-stock ETFs. This comes as ~210 new leveraged funds have been launched year-to-date, already surpassing the ~205 seen in the full year 2025. In the first half of 2026, leveraged and inverse ETFs made up 31% of all US-listed ETF launches, up from 22% in all of 2025. In June alone, 117 such funds had their debut, nearly half of the total 239 ETFs launched in the US market. Leverage has never been more popular.

@DanielPriestley @garyseconomics My gut and lived experience says that life has generally become much much harder since 2010, and I know plenty of people who' say the same. The data does tell a different story but perhaps we need to understand this disconnect between the data and felt reality

Well this is awkward … @garyseconomics central claim is that billionaires hoard wealth and plunge people into poverty. The data does not support this claim. Between 2010 and 2025 the number of US billionaires rose from 400 to 900. At the same time the rate of people living in poverty declined from 15% to 11%. In the UK the number of billionaires rose from 74 to a peak of 177 and is now in decline. During that time the percentage of people living in poverty was stable at 21-22%. It’s as if, a growing economy lifts people out of poverty and a stagnant one doesn’t. Billionaires clearly do not create poverty. They do however pay a lot in taxes. Driving them out is stupid and based on envy not data. BONUS FUN FACT: The number of people who describe themselves as “socialists” in the UK is 1 in 5 and in the USA it’s 1 in 12… almost perfectly aligned to the poverty rate in each country.

@clairlemon @K_Niemietz @Quillette He addressed the poor quality of public data in his latest youtube vid, he also quotes gabriel zucman as the economist with the right data

"This is not some minor point. The claim that wealth inequality is exploding is the central premise of Gary Stevenson’s entire economic theory, &, by extension, of this documentary. Take that away, and there is nothing left" --@K_Niemietz for @Quillette quillette.com/2026/07/14/gar…

@PeterTatchell @TheGreenParty This is meaningless unless you can sketch out the implementation details, which no one can, and even if some political figure tries, recent experience says its not reliable. Please learn from the mistakes we made in the whole brexit campaign + vote

75% of the public want a 2% tax on wealth in excess of £10 million @TheGreenParty is the only party proposing a wealth tax All the other parties oppose taxing wealth. They want to “balance the books” by cutting public spending, which will harm millions of not rich people

It depends on how its structured, which no body has been able to sketch out for any of us so far. I actually have sympathy with the argument that even higher taxes will tank the economy, but on the other hand i also think the middle class pay far too much of the tax. We need to take the emotions and ego out of it. The way he is being treated you are right will just give him more legitimacy.

Gary will win. He will successfully usher in wealth taxes and destroy what remains of the UK economy. Investment will dry up, the number of people living in poverty will explode and the UK will be used globally as an example to the world about the dangers of socialist ideology. How is he winning? He’s winning by losing. He sits opposite billionaires, investors, entrepreneur and professionals. Gary knows his audience. He doesn’t have to win arguments - he just has to show how mad he can make the rich. He lets them explain to him why wealth taxes won’t work. You can see how incredulous they are at the stupidity of his suggestions. They can’t help but talk down to him. He looks sad and hopeless. The wealthy, successful people are mad at him. The don’t like his ideas…. …. And that is the winning move. Checkmate. @garyseconomics wins.

@Jason Or we are hyping, because lots of people who got time on their hands stand to make a lot of money from it

When we can't stop talking about the progress in AI for six months, you know something very, very impactful is happening In 50 years they're going to study the year 2026

Great to finally hear less hype but more honest observations like this. Its been my feeling for some time that we should not be tokenmaxxing, why should we get paid to spend tokens to get stuff done thats meant to be our jobs but keep our comp. The only way this works is if someone can provably do more, e.g. we half their team size, or they deliver a 1 yr roadmap in 6 months. So far i have not seen anyone in the corporate world willing to take that deal. The story with tiny tech startups is different though, AI has made it possible for them to build their product without the funding. So no i dont expect AI to take out lots of jobs, in fact it is probably going to make engineers more useful, and i think there will an avalanche of new tech startups that are not selling "LLM wrappers", but selling software that the big boys cant build fast enough

8090 works on production systems for large, often regulated, enterprises. Vibing isn’t tolerated because these are the systems that run western society - banking, power, healthcare, insurance etc. Over the last few quarters, the gains that we got from using frontier models inside of our Software Factory on these systems started to shrink but the costs kept doubling. This makes sense I guess, as in hindsight, we were initially asking the model to do mostly light work (generate basic PRs) and now we were asking it to do more complex work (mitigate dependencies across systems). Unless you grow context massively, be willing to run many A/B tests and iterate massively (ie use massively more tokens) complex tasks stay roughly unfinished by the model and requires the engineer to largely act alone. In other words, we find the last 5% (ie where a model is truly equivalent to a reasonable engineer) extremely difficult to achieve and extremely expensive to such a degree that the fully loaded cost of the model + the engineer will not pay for itself. So I asked our CTO to start thinking about other ways. We need our engineers to have access to the best tools BUT we also need to educate them to think even more for themselves - not less - in this last mile. At the same time, we need to find solutions that decrease our token costs by 90% - especially because these bleeding edge tokens are not nearly as cost effective as the tokens before it and are creating a big OpEx bill for us. I wonder how many engineers, in all orgs, are running amok right now by using the latest frontier models as a kind of slot machine. Increasingly turning their mind off, largely keeping productivity flat while their CEO and CFO deals with a massive token bill? My advice to you is that when you encounter this last 5% of very hard technical challenges in getting a complex system into production, be circumspect. The challenge of the last 5% is actually getting harder - especially as hundreds and thousands of code generation model runs run amok adding all kinds of random cruft into codebases that eventually need to be rationalized.

@DerbyChrisW Good we still have people who can present a well reasoned case without getting emotional or calling names

This discussion is based on a false premise. We don't need a wealth tax to raise revenue for the govt because tax doesn't fund govt expenditure. The govt issues the currency and therefore has access to as much money as it requires. When it wants to spend it simply issues an instruction to the Bank of England to release the requisite funds. Chasing private sector investment, whether it comes from international investors or home grown ones, isn't the route to salvation. What's required is a govt that's prepared to use its ability intervene in the economy by spending in the national interest, in contrast to private sector investment, which puts corporate interests first. Ironically, an interventionist govt that was prepared to invest in our economy would encourage private sector investment as well. But taxation is essential to keep a lid on inflation, and it generates a value for the currency because taxes have to be paid in pound sterling. The thing that really matters is the availability of real resources in the economy, like skilled workers, machinery, infrastructure, energy, etc. That's what govts should be focused on, and trying to make our economy as self-sufficient as possible to make us more resilient in the face of global crises. The left in particular really does need to wean itself off the tax-and-spend myth.

@amandaorson In real life interactions over digital. Sports, like chess, will become more popular

The faster technology moves, the more I think about Bezos' question What won't change in the next 10 years? Things I've been writing down over time: - Humans will always need shelter, food, energy, and healthcare. - The desire for ownership and the accumulation of wealth. - The physical world will move more slowly than the digital one. - Every increase in technological capability, especially AI, will require more energy. - People and businesses will continue to need access to capital. - Capital will continue to seek returns that exceed inflation. - Underwriting methods evolve, but demand for credit (loans) is persistent. - Trust remains scarce and becomes increasingly valuable as content, code, and fraud become cheaper. - Verified identities and reputation becomes more important as information becomes abundant and synthetic. - Long-term wealth creation and dynastic (multi-generational) thinking predate modern technology, and will persist. - Coordination and transaction costs never fully disappear; market friction will continue to justify the existence of firms and intermediaries. - People will continue to compete for status. - Consumers will pay a premium for products and services that confer status. - Time remains fixed at 24 hours per day. - But attention is a finite resource and an enduring constraint. - Products that credibly save time (or enable delegation) have a perpetual market. - Inaccessible, proprietary data will be a persistent moat. The more inaccessible and difficult to aggregate, the deeper the moat. - People want accountability, recourse, and clearly identifiable responsibility when things go wrong. - Regulation consistently lags technological innovation. - Compliance requirements, licensing, and regulatory moats persist even when machines can perform the underlying task. - Local knowledge remains valuable and difficult to replicate. - Heterogeneous markets (like real estate) continue to reward people with deep contextual understanding. - Incumbent organizations tend to underinvest in disrupting their own businesses, which always creates opportunities for challengers. Bezos' insight on what wouldn't change in 10 years was "Customers will always want lower prices and faster delivery." It's boring/ true, but I think that's the point. Everything we build today can and will be rebuilt more cheaply, faster by someone else. Build on the invariants, not the trends. What have I missed?

@Vivek4real_ The problem with an asset that has no intrinic value is that a -50% move is just as likely as a +100% move

BILLIONAIRE JACK DORSEY AND MICHAEL SAYLOR DISCUSSING WHY BITCOIN WILL KEEP INCREASING IN VALUE FOR "CENTURIES." THIS IS A MUST WATCH.

@AGDugin I really hope this is a troll account

The very concept of the success is deeply immoral. If you are successful the other is loser. We shouldn’t accept it. We should prosper or suffer together. Otherwise it is satanic.

@KobeissiLetter So you think they are both bullish and slowing down? x.com/i/status/20749…

Retail investors are slowing their stock purchases: Retail investors have bought a net +$13.0 billion in US equities over the last month, the least since 2020, according to VandaTrack. Retail net monthly purchases have declined -$18.0 billion, or -58%, since early 2026. At the same time, net purchases of single stocks have fallen -$8.0 billion, or -71%, to $3.2 billion, the lowest since Q1 2020. Despite this, total retail turnover is up to a record $500 billion, doubling since mid-2024. This comes as retail investors are now selling stocks almost as aggressively as they are buying, compressing net purchases. Retail activity in the market is cooling down.