Live Inspired

GM, it is good to be back. Here is where we are by my estimation. We are 239 days out from the BTC halvening and a spot bitcoin ETF looks to be coming by the end of the year, if not sooner. No doubt this will lead to other ETF opportunities for other cryptoassets. Ethereum has made the successful transition to PoS and has been deflationary through the year. The economics of the ETH have been noticed by major banks, and research reports have started to trickle out. There are 3 DeFi apps that are tracking to $100M of ARR this year (in a bear market), and 1-2 of those have a line of sight to $1Bn of 95% margin ARR (in a bull market). Crypto game launches have been delayed but still are on track Q4/Q1 releases, which should bring millions of new users on chain in time. Regulatory clarity looks to be coming as well, with both the stablecoin and market structure scheduled to be voted on this summer. Crypto has withstood a staggering 525 basis points of federal reserve hiking and is on the other side of one of the nastiest deleveragings in financial history. The market expects one more hike with 95% certainty, and then that the fed will be done. The fed's dot plot implies rate headwinds will become tailwinds in 2024 and 2025. 2019 is uncannily similar to 2023's trajectory. Sentiment remains catatonic. The crypto natives are still nursing their wounds from 2022, and feel underallocated to the recent run up. Tradfi remains underexposed in general, lacking basic access to the asset class. The market continues to climb a gigantic wall of worry and PTSD, adding fuel to the fire. Crypto is in a far better place than anyone gives it credit for. History is on our side; we are replacing the financial system with software that nobody and everybody controls. Excited for the next few years and decades.