John T Pugh

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John T Pugh

John T Pugh

@JohnTPugh

Real Estate Developer - Private Equity + Debt; ex-Pro Basketball 🏀 & MIT Alumni

Planet Earth Katılım Temmuz 2009
1.1K Takip Edilen747 Takipçiler
John T Pugh
John T Pugh@JohnTPugh·
@chamath Could be a real drag on growth in the industry.
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John T Pugh
John T Pugh@JohnTPugh·
In business and life at some point it becomes clear, the people who look down on you, are condescending ,or pessimistic about your ideas have their own set of problems. Push forward past the noise. Those pundits who talk trash from the sidelines will never know what it feels like to be the man in the arena.
Beff (e/acc)@beffjezos

Pessimism sounds smart. Optimism makes money.

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John T Pugh
John T Pugh@JohnTPugh·
In business and life at some point it becomes clear, the people who look down on you, are condescending ,or pessimistic about your ideas have their own set of problems. Push forward and forge on. You will never regret it. Those pundits who talk trash from the sidelines will never know what it feels like to be the man in the arena.
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John T Pugh
John T Pugh@JohnTPugh·
@alan_stalcup Interesting. The owner of the first development firm I worked for had a film production company. Not a bad angle.
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Alan Stalcup | CRE Investor
I’ve been dabbling in the film world lately. I think the intrigue sparked from the constant presence of creatives in my life. My wife is a painter. My daughter is studying art in college. I spent the first chunk of my career surrounded by engineers. I’ve always enjoyed films but I noticed a gap. Most filmmakers are artists first and businesspeople second. Financing this type of art is complicated and traditional banks largely stay out of it. There's a real opening for people who have a knack for both sides. As an investor, there are definitely perks. - Tax credits from states - Pre-sold distribution rights - Guaranteed minimum payouts The risk-adjusted returns are better than most realize. And sometimes it’s okay to invest in projects you like, and not need to maximize return.
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John T Pugh
John T Pugh@JohnTPugh·
@bairdk Amazing. Love this! Important message. Thanks Baird.
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Baird Kleinsmith
Baird Kleinsmith@bairdk·
One of the best things we’ve done for our kids is force them out of their physical comfort zones. Lots of whining and crying to get here. The effort will pay off with more than physical achievement. (Will rode 15 miles on this ride. He’s got cerebral palsy, an AFO brace, and zero excuses.)
Baird Kleinsmith tweet media
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John T Pugh
John T Pugh@JohnTPugh·
Love this. So absolutely true. 🦞🦞🦞🦞🦞
Aakash Gupta@aakashgupta

There's a physicist at Stanford named Safi Bahcall who modeled this exact principle and the math is wild. He calls it "phase transitions in human networks." When you're stationary, your probability of a lucky event is limited to your existing surface area: the people you already know, the places you already go, the ideas you've already been exposed to. Your opportunity window is fixed. When you move, your collision rate with new nodes in a network increases nonlinearly. Double your movement (new conversations, new cities, new projects) and your probability of a serendipitous encounter doesn't double. It roughly quadruples. Because each new node connects you to their entire network, not just to them. Richard Wiseman ran a 10-year study at the University of Hertfordshire tracking self-described "lucky" and "unlucky" people. The single biggest differentiator wasn't IQ, education, or family money. Lucky people scored significantly higher on one trait: openness to experience. They talked to strangers more, varied their routines more, and said yes to invitations at nearly twice the rate. The "unlucky" group followed the same routes, ate at the same restaurants, and talked to the same 5 people. Their networks were closed loops. No new inputs, no new collisions. Luck isn't random. Luck is surface area. And surface area is a function of movement. The lobster emoji is doing more work than most people realize. Lobsters grow by shedding their shell when it gets too tight. The growth requires a period of total vulnerability. No protection, no armor, soft body exposed to the ocean. That's the cost of movement nobody posts about. You have to be uncomfortable first. The new shell only hardens after you've already moved.

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John T Pugh
John T Pugh@JohnTPugh·
@bornintheflames @TuckerCarlson I’ve had close family members who are also emergency docs who have had experiences that made them believe as well. Things that could not be explained by science alone. Appreciate your post.
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rad phœnix
rad phœnix@bornintheflames·
@TuckerCarlson I'm an average practising hospital doc. I never believed in demons until one time in the ER I overheard animal-like sounds and screams emanating from a patient, speaking in what sounded like some kind of foreign language...super-human strength...was like a scene from The Exorcist
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Tucker Carlson
Tucker Carlson@TuckerCarlson·
Father Chad Ripperger has spent his life as an exorcist. It’s clear to him that demons are in charge of parts of American politics. 0:00 The Connection Between Mental Health and Demon Possessions 7:01 What Are Demons? 26:45 What Is the Mission of Demons? 29:40 Is the United States Under Demonic Attack? 35:16 Child Sacrifice and Pacts With Demons 46:03 The Dangers of Being an Exorcist 48:38 Why Demons Target People in Leadership Positions 51:52 The Similarities Between Communism and Demonism 58:45 Can Demons Possess Animals? 1:05:08 How Does Someone Become Possessed? 1:14:19 The Dangers of Mocking Demons 1:17:42 Occult Knowledge 1:20:36 Why Some Demons Can Only Be Cast Out With Prayer and Fasting 1:27:15 Satanic Ritual Abuse 1:29:47 Are There People Who Choose to Stay Possessed? 1:33:37 How God Uses Demons for Good 1:35:57 How to Avoid Being Possessed 1:40:43 Is the US Doomed? 1:44:27 What Role Do Demons Play in Addiction?
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John T Pugh
John T Pugh@JohnTPugh·
@izakaminska Beautiful handwriting. Looking forward to the before and after pic of the babka!
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Izabella Kaminska
Izabella Kaminska@izakaminska·
Today I will be trying to recreate this recipe from a family cook book that dates back to 1865 for a “very good babka”. Wish me luck.
Izabella Kaminska tweet media
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John T Pugh
John T Pugh@JohnTPugh·
@ScottChoppin Love this. Hadn’t heard of this solution before. Thanks for sharing Scott!
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Scott Choppin | RE Development: Strategy+Execution
937 Pine Ave, Long Beach. The project was stuck. Distressed debt, no path forward. Our Development Services team designed a workout with the lender: convert the distressed debt to GP equity. Why? Because it cleared the entire capital stack for new Opportunity Zone equity. Before the workout, any new money would have had to solve the distress first. After it, new capital comes in clean.
Scott Choppin | RE Development: Strategy+Execution tweet media
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John T Pugh
John T Pugh@JohnTPugh·
@alan_stalcup So true. It’s not easy building with those first investors and it comes slowly then all at once.
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Alan Stalcup | CRE Investor
Alan Stalcup | CRE Investor@alan_stalcup·
My first raise at GVA was a $1.5M deal. It was the hardest raise I've ever done. I ended up putting in $800K of my own capital just to make it work. That left $700K to raise from outside investors. It sounds small compared to where we eventually got. But that deal taught me more about capital formation than the billion and a half that followed. Investors write checks but at the same time, they're extending trust. Trust at the start of a relationship is earned through - discipline - transparency - your own money on the line I was often the largest investor in our deals. That was intentional. When you lose your own capital, it changes how you underwrite everything else.
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John T Pugh
John T Pugh@JohnTPugh·
@DeepPsycho_HQ So true. I didn’t know what I wanted to be at 24. Use your 20’s to gain perspective by trying on different jobs and even industries. Figure out where you want to be for your career. Don’t just default to whatever someone told you was valuable when you were 20.
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Deep Psychology
Deep Psychology@DeepPsycho_HQ·
A HARVARD psychologist says: “if you’ve achieved nothing by 25, you’ve avoided the most destructive illusion of youth” > In 2021, a Harvard psychologist surprised a lecture hall with an unexpected statement: “If you haven’t accomplished much by 25, you may have escaped one of youth’s biggest illusions.” At first, the room laughed. She wasn’t kidding. > The illusion of early success. In your early 20s, the brain seeks quick proof of worth ~status, attention, rapid achievements. But psychologists warn that chasing recognition too soon can lock people into roles or paths they never consciously chose. They decide too early… and spend years trying to undo it. > The exploration phase. Research on career development suggests that people who explore more before 30 often build stronger long-term directions. Testing ideas. Making mistakes in public. Changing course. At 25 it looks like confusion ….but by 35 it often turns into clarity. People who feel “behind” in their mid-20s frequently gain something others miss: Perspective. Patience. And a clearer sense of what truly matters to them. That foundation often leads to better decisions later on. At the end of the lecture, the psychologist left the students with one final thought: “You’re not meant to have life fully figured out at 25.” “You’re meant to discover who you’re not.”
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John T Pugh
John T Pugh@JohnTPugh·
@rossiadam It’s gorgeous. I think the quote is also about his appreciation for being at home with those he loved as opposed to being out wandering the world with those of “importance”. Great biography by Ron Chernow. Life is short spend time with those that matter most.
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Adam Rossi
Adam Rossi@rossiadam·
“I can truly say I had rather be at Mount Vernon with a friend or two about me, than to be attended at the seat of government by the officers of state and the representatives of every power in Europe.” - George Washington Virginia Forever
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John T Pugh
John T Pugh@JohnTPugh·
@rossiadam Saw it flying over my house shortly after take off. All the kids were out in the street watching and cheering. Pretty epic moment.
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Adam Rossi
Adam Rossi@rossiadam·
Artemis II is on the way to the moon. And we have a full moon tonight. Let me take this moment to remind you: The moon is a message.
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John T Pugh
John T Pugh@JohnTPugh·
@molzer True words Zach. Love you sharing your story. Cash burn is massive in development between exits. Not many other businesses are more lumpy cash flows and cash burn intensive.
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Zach Molzer
Zach Molzer@molzer·
Running a development company is not easy and requires constant cash. I have a team of 5. VP of development, Marketing Manager, and 2 VA's. Payroll, subscriptions, investor relations, F&B expenses, travel & pursuit costs add up quickly. We are spending about $20k/ month just to keep things afloat. We will complete our first 2 projects over the next 12 weeks, and then yes, some development fees come in and eventually we will hit our promote. Sure, we had small acquisition fees when buying these buildings/ projects, but those are nominal (<$100k TOTAL over 2 years) So how the heck are we able to stay even somewhat alive right now? Our social media. Brand deals, ad revenue etc. Want to get into development? Great. My advice as someone who is in the thick of it is simple; Start or find a cash-flowing business first, then use those funds to backstop your development company etc. Without cash, you can't do anything. Blessed to have the social media dollars coming in to keep us afloat until July. Godspeed
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Alan Stalcup | CRE Investor
Alan Stalcup | CRE Investor@alan_stalcup·
Enjoyed sitting down with Multifamily Dive to share the GVA story. - 30k units - 509 investors - The Fed's most aggressive rate hike cycle in 40 years - Two years of hard decisions. The full story is available in the link below. It’s worth a read for anyone in this space.
Alan Stalcup | CRE Investor tweet media
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John T Pugh
John T Pugh@JohnTPugh·
@rossiadam Wow. That clip was amazing. Never thought that would be a thing. It’s magical.
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Alan Stalcup | CRE Investor
Alan Stalcup | CRE Investor@alan_stalcup·
Years ago I founded a micro business training organization in Uganda called Work for Life. The mission was simple. Equip entrepreneurs with the right skills to reach their potential and fight poverty. What that actually looks like: training people who earn $3 a day and helping them build toward $10 a day. That shift is huge. - It means a family that eats differently. - A child who stays in school. - A community that starts to believe things can change. We're now reaching 10,000 people/year across East Africa. But the thing I'm most proud of, I'm no longer running it. The Ugandans are. That was always the goal. Build something real, hand it to the people it was built for, and trust them to take it further than you ever could.
Alan Stalcup | CRE Investor tweet mediaAlan Stalcup | CRE Investor tweet media
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John T Pugh
John T Pugh@JohnTPugh·
@robbiehendricks Everyone has the right plan for them. Some just don’t know it. Others find it and it is different for everyone. Great post that reflects the complexity of real life.
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Robbie Hendricks
Robbie Hendricks@robbiehendricks·
One of my friends has followed the Dave Ramsey debt snowball plan to the letter. Attends every annual conference. Proud Ramsey advocate. Early 40s. Husband is a cop. Couple kids. Just a great, red-blooded Ohio family. Probably makes $200k/year as a household (just a guess). Over the last 10 years: • Paid off house • Paid off cars • 529s funded for kids • On track to retire around 55 Now look, I’m obviously a debt-user and advocate for going out there and building wealth. The Ramsey plan is not a character fit for me, as I’m admittedly wired very ambitious, and enjoy investing, building my business, and taking on that responsibility (and risk). But these folks are doing better than 90% of the country - in a stress free manner - simply by: • Finding a plan • Sticking to the plan • Not increasing expenses as income and savings grow Something to be said for that, I think. Stuck to their guns, didn’t care that it was “boring”. Didn’t listen to other people telling them to be more aggressive. Very happy for them.
Robbie Hendricks tweet media
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