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@JohnsonSlimmy
convinced I’ll win the lottery one day so let’s fuck around till then
Not there yet Katılım Temmuz 2020
708 Takip Edilen98 Takipçiler
@EVLongshots @OddsJam @pikkitsports Having issues getting roles back on the discord after the subscription switch my g, if you could dm to help would be appreciated!
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MLB/NHL play I'm on 👇🏻 @OddsJam
Two really good spots found on the +EV tool parlayed together
@pikkitsports 🔗 attached below in comments ⏬️
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@DataBasedBets @PlusEVAnalytics @MassGamingComm Happened to me like a year back. Put me in a constant verification loop and took months to get a check mailed
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Pretty ridiculous Caesars is now completely banning - not just limiting - users who have never broken TOS now and holding onto their funds at least temporarily. This is ridiculous @MassGamingComm
Slightly Plus EV@SlightlyPlusEV
Cowards @CaesarsSports
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Since the moment after this tweet, I started the worst bankroll drawdown of my betting career due to insanely bad variance on plays I’m 100% confident are long term profitable which I’ve been sizing incredibly aggressively due to that confidence. Thankfully most of the damage has been limited to just me and not the discord since a lot of it was on positions that were not able to be tailed, but damn this stings. Will adjust sizing and grind to bounce back
DataBasedBets@DataBasedBets
Full time betting/predicting is starting even better than I could have hoped. Certainly experiencing some positive variance but what an April it has been! 💰 Well on track for my goal which I had initially thought was lofty All of my trades are done by hand
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dob retweetledi
I want to fly you out to Vegas for a show at my Wynn residency. ✈️ Comment “FLY ME OUT” to enter.
Hotel, flights, chicken tenders, all access – all fully covered by me. And yes you get to bring a +1.
See you soon:
Fri, May 8 (Encore Beach Club Daytime)
Wed, June 17 (EBC at Night)
Sunday, June 28 (XS)
Sun, September 27 (EBC at Night)
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dob retweetledi
This joke tweet turned into everyone having to tell me they are limited on bet365
CONGRATULATIONS EVERYONE 🥳, you're so good at gambling
⛏️💰@EVLongshots
bet365 is basically a charity
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Please Trump call it the “Congressional” Medal of Honor
GIF
PredictionMarketTrader@PredMTrader
Trump Medal of Honor Ceremony - 11AM ET He will be honoring 3 solders that participated in WW2, Vietnam, and Afghanistan Big question is how much time will he devote to discussing military operations in Iran - market is currently hesitant
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@PredMTrader Had all those too! Also had No for no good and didn’t catch where there said it despite no missed field goals…
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Here’s what I’m playing for the Super Bowl Announcer Mention Market
Hoping for a boring game with low penalties
Good Luck Everyone and Enjoy the Super Bowl!
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@catboyautist Keep your money/investments where you can give yourself the best leg up in the competition.
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Should I withdraw 60K from Kalshi just so I can own 1 BTC?
Would be my first withdrawal ever, I'm just wondering if it'll go even lower...
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@Jimbo_Sl1ce How horrible! An experienced trader explaining his methodology!
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Easily the worst part of the rise of PMs is having to watch this guy stroke himself on TV, print, podcasts and twitter week in and week out. Maybe he's shrewdly supplying hopium to his counterparties but man is it insufferable
Domer❤️🔥@Domahhhh
Slight deep dive on Fed Chair. Second biggest win of my career. Over the course of the past ~5 months, I've been trying to predict Trump's Fed chair nomination, as well as the timing of the announcement. Rewind to late November/early December, Kevin Hassett stood at 60% (eventually hitting 85%) AND the pick seemed potentially imminent. I had large paper losses and was in the red for about $200k. Was on track to be my second biggest loss. I had a huge negative position, because my two largest bets were the opposite of what seemed like the current reality: (1) I was betting heavily against Hassett and (2) I was betting the pick wouldn't happen until at least January. I was annoyed, and second guessing my research and thought process on Hassett, but after like a day of thought, I decided, screw it, I'm right -- he was a political hack, and didn't belong anywhere near the Fed -- and I'm not leaving. Why should I leave? I'm not leaving!!!! In fact, I kept betting even more against Hassett. The market, which had already displaced the first betting frontrunner (Chris Waller, a current Fed governor who was appointed by Trump) with Hassett, kept Hassett very high for weeks as Trump continued to fawn over him and make eyes with him. A few weeks later, when Trump implied he may want to keep Hassett's goofy countenance closer to home, Warsh shot up to 60% immediately. Warsh was then somewhat randomly displaced as frontrunner in favor of Rick Rieder, after favorable coverage of his interview pushed him to the 55% favorite. Four different frontrunners in four months. That's my kind of market. My thesis stayed fairly constant the whole time, in roughly four parts: 1. Kevin Warsh is the weak frontrunner. Maybe ~40%-50% odds. He checked off Trump's loyalty card, and is at least respected enough and distanced enough from Trump to have a bit of credibility. He certainly moves well in Wall Street circles, and was previously a Fed governor. Trump also has a very personal connection to him: Warsh's father-in-law gave $5m to MAGA Inc. a few months ago. The issue with Warsh is that, as far as monetary policy, he is at least a bit of a moron. He flunked his Fed governor test in 2008-2009 when he infamously identified inflation (which was below 1%) as his biggest concern, much to the dismay of Bernanke. Someone who wants higher rates to combat inflation is called a hawk. This is literally the opposite of what Trump says he wants (a dove, who is not as concerned with inflation). 2. If Trump actually wants lower rates and a credible, dovish person to achieve that, his best pick was the Governor he already picked in his first term: Christopher Waller. I had him as worth ~25%-30%. Trump is FAR more into loyalty than effectiveness, which helps to explain quite a lot of his bad picks for various positions (think of it like the polar opposite of Lincoln's "Team of Rivals"). With Bessent shepherding this, though, I felt like he could guide Trump tp pick the person likeliest to be able to lead a Fed boardroom down the path of lower interest rates. Waller has a very credible (and perhaps correct!) thesis that rates are too high. 3. Trump's best pick for matching loyalty and credibility is Bessent himself, who was leading the search and has roughly equal views to Warsh. I rated that at around a 5-10% chance. Bessent seemed very disinterested in this (unclear why -- I landed on him liking politics for whatever godforsaken reason and wanting to stay in that lane). But I thought Bessent may change his mind if Trump was deadset on Hassett, who was easily the worst pick (I rated Hassett a 5-10% chance). I thought in the scenario where Trump wants to pick Hassett, Bessent may be like "damn it, man, alright fine whatever, I'll be Fed Chair." Lol. But for real! 4. Other -- As with any pick, Other is probably worth a decent amount, and one of the "Others" ended up in the final 4 and indeed became the frontrunner eventually (Rick Rieder). Zooming out over the course of 5 months, I would've put Other at around 15%. (Side note -- I get pitched on hundreds of prediction market-adjacent products and projects. Vast, vast majority go nowhere. One that has actually gone somewhere is research platform Conspectus Intel from @jennkornn, which was very effective at synthesizing Trump's decision matrix as it relates to these candidates) This morning, Trump announced my weak frontrunner was the pick: Kevin Warsh. In the end, after all the drama and swinginess of the markets, the pick was neither that surprising nor that interesting. But I did wind up making $425,000 on this bet across various markets and sites, a couple of which I've pasted below. Second largest win of my life! Which is a great ending for me (not sure about the country). But it's also not the storybook ending: I would've made nearly $1m if Trump had made the smart pick, Chris Waller. C'est la vie.
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@PredMTrader I fear non market making focused sports edges will dry up soon on pms, wouldn’t wait too long
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I am once again highly advising you to pick a niche instead of spreading thin
Here are my most recommended niches on Kalshi
1. AI Model Rankings (LMArena, Livebench) - I can personally attest to how mispriced these markets get because of people misunderstanding how the leaderboards work, or just overhyping a new model release (see GPT 5.2 or Opus 4.5).
2. Mentions - Self Explanatory since this is most of my content and trading. Although I will say mentions are becoming sharper every day, still a ton of opportunity tho.
3. Music - This one I begrudgingly will still keep on the list although I personally have been avoiding these more and more - I definitely don’t have an edge here.
I do want to focus on music a lot more in the new year.
What is NOT on this list:
1. Sports - Obviously sports is very fun if you’re a fan, but it’s very difficult to be profitable unless you’re employing specific angles/strategies (ie. Arbing, market making, spotting inefficient lines compared to books, etc). This is outside my wheelhouse although I want to look here more in 2026.
2. Crypto Hourlies/15 mins - This can be highly profitable if you are a market maker, I question the ability to find a long term edge here as a taker but maybe someone will surprise me.
Politics is only not on this list because I don’t know enough about it and I feel like the barrier of entry is extremely high for me to ever build an edge.
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