@AlaskaBird__ Always the females with idiotic takes who worship the ground daddy Trump walks in. The brainwashing is strong with you.
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Jordan
4.1K posts
Jordan
@Jordaninmt
early $sofi, $tsla, $nvda investor. looking for the next big stock. Kansas City chiefs
Katılım Temmuz 2023
1.8K Takip Edilen469 Takipçiler
@codetocompound @fiscal_ai I own both. Sofi is spending on other businesses besides banking which is lowering the efficiency metrics. If Sofi were to focus only on banking and cut ad spending by ten percent they would be around 30 ROE. The rollout of stable coins and BBB is something NU hasn’t touched
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$SOFI vs $NU
Both stocks are down heavily from ATHs. Both got punished after earnings. But underneath the hood, these are two completely different fintech stories. Honestly, it’s hard to tell which one will ultimately produce the better return over the long run.
$SOFI is fighting an uphill battle in the ultra-competitive US market. To win deposits and users, it has to spend aggressively on marketing, offer high APYs, and compete directly with JPM, Chase, BofA, Robinhood, Chime, and countless other fintech players.
Meanwhile, $NU operates in Latin America, where traditional banking was expensive, inefficient, and deeply underpenetrated. Nubank entered the market with a free digital-first product, lower fees, and a significantly better user experience …and it went viral. Over 80% of its 135M+ customers were acquired purely through word-of-mouth.
Now let’s look at the Q1 2026 numbers. Both companies grew revenue around 40% YoY, with $SOFI generating $167M in net income while $NU generated a massive $871M. At first glance, both businesses look extremely impressive.
However, the real difference starts to show up in efficiency.
$SOFI NIM: 5.9% | $NU NIM: 21.1%
$SOFI efficiency ratio: mid-40s | $NU efficiency ratio: 17.6%
That gap is enormous. It costs Nubank very little to scale its cloud-native banking model, and the operating leverage is becoming increasingly visible in the financials. The structural moat is also very different.
$SOFI’s long-term bull case has always been becoming the “AWS of fintech” through Galileo + Technisys. But enterprise fintech spending is cyclical, competitive, and proving harder to scale than many originally expected.
$NU doesn’t sell its tech stack. Instead, it uses it internally to lower costs, scale faster, dominate customer acquisition, and continuously improve margins. Brazil is already printing cash, while Mexico just reached breakeven with 15M users.
Of course, both companies carry meaningful risks. $SOFI is exposed to US macro sensitivity, rate cycles, lending exposure, and platform concentration risk. Meanwhile, $NU is exposed to emerging market volatility, unsecured lending risk, and potential credit deterioration during downturns.
Still, when I zoom out long term, $SOFI looks like a very well run premium digital bank. But $NU looks like a once-in-a-generation financial platform compounding machine.
29% ROE, massive scale, dominant market position, with a huge runway ahead.
And perhaps most importantly, Nubank achieved all this with extremely low customer acquisition costs, elite operating efficiency, and some of the strongest unit economics in global fintech today.
That’s why, personally, I lean more toward $NU over $SOFI for the long term.
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If countries like Thailand start restricting Indian tourists, where exactly are Indians supposed to go?
Indians spend billions globally on tourism, shopping, hotels, food, and local economies. Treating Indian travelers like second-class visitors while happily taking their money is a dangerous trend.
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@PaperBozz They don’t fear that. They didn’t raise eps because they are using every extra dollar toward the business. Revenue will be higher like always but they have never raised just one. It’s always both. They never said anything about employment above there estimates
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@PaperBozz They are plowing any extra revenue into those businesses. Adding loans now is the optimal move it smooths out eps for these capital intensive years. Once rates fall they can sell them. I get the frustration but every company does dilution especially in the growth years.
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@Jordaninmt If dilutions were accretive why did they guide low and blame on Macro and interest rates. If the macro is uncertain, why did they increase the unsecured loans on their balance sheet.
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Nailed it. 👇
I've been calling out Anthony Noto’s aggressive share dilution habit for months.
Management has completely destroyed their credibility. No one believes them anymore when they say they “don’t need to raise capital.” They broke that trust.
Now the stock trades under permanent dilution fear. Any real upward move gets sold into immediately because investors expect @anthonynoto to dilute again.
Daniel S@accounting_ds
So he is incredibly bothered by the stock performance plummeting, but does not once bring up that $SOFI diluted shareholders twice in a short period of time? When $SOFI was trading at elevated prices, management took that and made opportunistic equity offerings to convert some of that market value into real cash on the balance sheet If management believed the stock was deeply undervalued and about to massively rerate higher, repeatedly issuing shares into strength is at least worth questioning To be clear, I am not saying $SOFI is a bad company, I have no horse in the fintech race, but I do not think the selloff can be explained only by “the market unfairly punishing fintech” The December/January offering totaled 57,754,660 shares, raising about $1.6B net January filing says the offering reached that share total after the underwriters exercised part of their option Current official common shares outstanding 1,282,741,200 shares as of April 30, 2026 1,282,741,200 − 1,204,569,655 = 78,171,545 more shares 78,171,545 / 1,204,569,655 = 6.49% increase in share count The December/January offering itself added roughly 4.8%, with the rest coming from RSUs, stock plans, and normal share count creep In other words, the same $27.50 stock price now requires about $2.15B more market value than it did before the dilution So what has materially improved enough to make this dilution accretive? I’m not sure, and with fintech/bank headwinds still present, it is not obvious that the added capital will translate into enough incremental net income to fully offset the larger share count
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@EO_Farmer Get the small business accounts going and they will have a massive influx of members. The yield alone should attract businesses to switch just to get interest on idle cash. LFG!!
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@accounting_ds They needed cash to build out 4 businesses. I am beyond bullish for the stablecoin and to me it’s worth 7 percent dilution to fund it. I get it they probably could have let momentum carry the stock to thirty before hitting the sell button but all fintechs got hammered
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So he is incredibly bothered by the stock performance plummeting, but does not once bring up that $SOFI diluted shareholders twice in a short period of time?
When $SOFI was trading at elevated prices, management took that and made opportunistic equity offerings to convert some of that market value into real cash on the balance sheet
If management believed the stock was deeply undervalued and about to massively rerate higher, repeatedly issuing shares into strength is at least worth questioning
To be clear, I am not saying $SOFI is a bad company, I have no horse in the fintech race, but I do not think the selloff can be explained only by “the market unfairly punishing fintech”
The December/January offering totaled 57,754,660 shares, raising about $1.6B net
January filing says the offering reached that share total after the underwriters exercised part of their option
Current official common shares outstanding 1,282,741,200 shares as of April 30, 2026
1,282,741,200 − 1,204,569,655 = 78,171,545 more shares
78,171,545 / 1,204,569,655 = 6.49% increase in share count
The December/January offering itself added roughly 4.8%, with the rest coming from RSUs, stock plans, and normal share count creep
In other words, the same $27.50 stock price now requires about $2.15B more market value than it did before the dilution
So what has materially improved enough to make this dilution accretive? I’m not sure, and with fintech/bank headwinds still present, it is not obvious that the added capital will translate into enough incremental net income to fully offset the larger share count
Basis Points@basispointpod
$SOFI "Does it bother me the stock is down as much as it is year to date? Yeah, it f****** bothers me a ton. At the end of the day, we're being held to a high standard. I've accepted that responsibility and I'll work my butt off to make sure we deliver on it."
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@SayNoToTrading @anthonynoto @basispointpod I’d argue checking and savings is top of any bank. It’s a top of funnel for everything else. They get small business checking I’m moving my account over immediately. Credit card is lacking no argument there maybe they should hire you as a consultant to jumpstart it
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Some statements by @anthonynoto that concerned me in the @basispointpod episode yesterday.
- When discussing price to tangible book, discussing how $SOFI shouldn't trade at 2x or less and alluding to 5-6x when matched against what $AXP peaks at.
- Similarly, likening them to $JPM price to book which yes, is insanely expensive since 2023 recovery, now around 2.8x, but you we can't really compare any bank to them in terms of size, scale, and safety. $SOFI I believe is around 2.25-2.3x right now.
- Being 2nd best (or less) at everything and being #1 at nothing. I appreciate they have irons in the fire but they need to focus on becoming #1 at something, before trying to be #1 at everything at same time. Great if they can do that but it rarely goes that way.
- As I had joked for years, they are largely a student loan refi operation that was masquerading as an all-in-one financial institution. This was admittedly harsh and is no longer accurate, though it is a meaningful slice.
- Sofi credit card not competitive or marketed properly. Seriously they should have just asked me how to do this. Doubt you can find a one-man business responsible for more organic credit card conversions for $JPM, $C, $COF, $AXP, $BAC than my track record pre-retirement.
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You can see why ROE is important for @anthonynoto and $sofi.
*if* you want to value them based on book, which some would argue is worse than on earnings, here’s the general on correlating p/tbv multiple to ROE; the relationship is roughly linear.
ROE → P/TBV multiple:
•~8–10% ROE → 1.0–1.3x TBV (earning roughly cost of equity, no premium warranted). Examples: regional banks like Truist, US Bancorp in weaker years
•~10–12% ROE → 1.3–1.8x TBV. Most mid-tier banks live here
•~13–15% ROE → 1.8–2.5x TBV. JPMorgan trades in this zone (~17% ROE, ~2.2x TBV)
•~15–20% ROE → 2.5–4x TBV. Visa/Mastercard-adjacent financials, top-performing banks
•~20–30% ROE → 4–6x TBV. American Express (~30% ROE, ~5x book) *** SoFi Target ***
•~30%+ ROE → 6–10x+ TBV. Nu Holdings (~40% ROE, ~8x book), asset-light fintechs
Key modifiers:
•Growth pushes multiples higher at any ROE level (why Nu gets 8x vs AmEx at 5x despite similar ROE)
•Durability/consistency matters; one year of 20% ROE doesn’t earn a 4x multiple
•Revenue mix; fee-heavy businesses get higher multiples than NII-dependent ones because they’re less rate-sensitive
For SoFi specifically: if Noto delivers 20% ROE with 30% revenue growth, the comp set isn’t really traditional banks, it’s closer to Nu Holdings or early-stage AmEx. That could justify 4–6x TBV, or $40–60 on a $10 TBV/share (if they get there in a few years).
The market just needs to believe it’s sustainable before it pays that multiple and sofi needs to execute and hit their long term goals.
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@PortfolioPRs The amount of money printing and inflation happening a trillion dollars will be half the s and p 500 in 10 years. It is an odd statement but just inflation with growth it’s possible in 15 years by then JP Morgan will be 3 trillion dollar company lol
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I’ll gladly be wrong because I’d rather see people succeed than not, but let’s be real $SOFI becoming a trillion dollar company is completely absurd & I’m surprised Noto would even make a statement like that. 🚩
Wealthmatica@wealthmatica
$SOFI CEO on how big the company can get… "I don't see why we can't be a TRILLION dollar company." – Anthony Noto, CEO $SOFI
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WARP is a new ETF. I got some for my kids when it came out earlier this month. Market might be high now, might be low. I don’t know. But will there be fewer rocket launches 10 years from now? I sure hope not. Means we are all eating canned beans and bartering cigarettes.
Adam Townsend@adamscrabble
Keep to the simple portfolio construction for kids. I want them to learn to hold risk and be a participant in the future and not a spectator. Buckets I assign and then buy the leaders in their industry. Impossible to go wrong (entertainment I’m hard core with msgs by the way)
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@anthonynoto, I’ve heard you say that you read everything on Twitter.
Read this!! Between my family and I, we own just over 2M shares.
Send me a freaking Hoodie bud. I never talk shit about you bc I understand that you’re trying to build something that is sustainable for years to come.
There is no crying in the casino but I still want that hoodie lol
Good day :)
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$MSFT $433’s in pre!!! There’s that pop!!
Heisenberg@Mr_Derivatives
$MSFT lookin’ frisky lately… Looks like it wants a 3-4% one day pop soon?
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@ObedientBread Tell me you do not understand a company investing heavily in its business vs a company that doesn’t have investment opportunities with one picture. You nailed it
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@finance_intell They are spending heavily on new businesses investments and using loans to fund those buildouts instead of throwing the loan profits to the bottom line they reinvest it into new opportunities. I’m convinced these guys would have sold amazon in 2012 because PE. Great post
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$SOFI
This is what happens when the cycle is out of favour.
If you missed names like $AMD, $NBIS, $INTC and you’re sat bag holding SoFi, you’re obviously going to feel frustrated.
This is not a short term game.
People say “SoFi has been flat for the past 5 years”, but forget you could have bought at $6 back in 2024 and already multiplied your money 5x. This is down to perception.
The sooner you understand that the market does not always favour your stocks, and that it’s all part of a cycle, the happier you’ll be trusting the process and waiting for the stock to reflect management’s execution.
If you really prefer management to focus on the stock price over the business, then you’re short term minded.
Management should always focus on the business first and the rest will follow.
If management focuses on appeasing shareholders 100% of the time, then who’s actually running the company? Management or people on X complaining about dilution?
My belief is that people will be rewarded, but it won’t happen in the next few months.
Don’t buy this expecting an immediate run. Just my 2 cents.
stock goat@kylewhitegoat
$SOFI If you cant Get your stock up in 6 years publicly traded, get out of the Kitchen and be a CFO again might be a better fit and let another CEO create "VALUE" for shareholders We need to stop applauding leadership for running a company "well" thats 50% of the job, the other 50% is create value Theres a 100 other CEO's on wallstreet that run a company well and give the market a reason to 5X 10X their Share value over half a decade Something is deeply wrong with SOFI, I listen to all of these analyst and it keeps coming back down to EPS, 1 Million members 5 million members, 10 million members, 15 million members, 20 million members? The market is not buying it at the expenses of Balloon marketing and dilution
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I’m not naive as to why donors pumped so much money into the race. Even so, the OBBB was the deal breaker for Trump. The OBBB had to pass or else Democrats could have forced a shutdown of ICE. Massie and Rand Paul burned a lot of goodwill up.
Glenn Greenwald@ggreenwald
If the AIPAC/Adelson crowd wants someone out of Congress for disloyalty to Israel, they will be out of Congress. There are a few exceptions due to unusual districts, but not many. The Israel Lobby has unlimited funding and will spend limitlessly to expunge the blasphemous.
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@kylewhitegoat You EPS and PE bros are wild. So don’t invest in growth? Marketing is growing down as a period revenue every single quarter. You people need to sell and chase the high AI companies at the top. Holy shit
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$SOFI 🚨BREAKING NEWS🚨
To All SOFI "investors" Heres Why SOFI Stock Wont go up.
⛔️SALES AND MARKETING⛔️
Q1'26 = $335 Million
Q4'25= $307 Million
Q3'25= $286 Million
Q2'25 = $264 Million
Q1'25 = $238 Million
Legacy banks analyst are having an all you can Eat Buffett on slashing SOFI price targets due to lackluster EPS, due to Ballooning marketing expenses
SOFI management Performance due to balloon marketing
2020 $10
2026 $15
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@kylewhitegoat The only way to get the multiple of a tech company is to get lending AND LPB under 50 percent of revenue. That takes massive investment as they need multiple different asset light businesses to take off. If you are not comfortable as 2026 being a very high investment year sell
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$SOFI If you cant Get your stock up in 6 years publicly traded, get out of the Kitchen and be a CFO again might be a better fit and let another CEO create "VALUE" for shareholders
We need to stop applauding leadership for running a company "well" thats 50% of the job, the other 50% is create value
Theres a 100 other CEO's on wallstreet that run a company well and give the market a reason to 5X 10X their Share value over half a decade
Something is deeply wrong with SOFI, I listen to all of these analyst and it keeps coming back down to EPS, 1 Million members 5 million members, 10 million members, 15 million members, 20 million members? The market is not buying it at the expenses of Balloon marketing and dilution
GIF
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