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Jordan
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Last year, we invested in only two founders: @alexkshieh and @needaubrey
Singular individuals imbued with significant purpose to change the world.
Today, they both received the Thiel Fellowship.
Thiel Fellowship@thielfellowship
Welcome 2026 Thiel Fellows! WHO ARE THEY? Victor Boyd: Birmingham, AL - @VictorWBoyd Cavalla is on a mission to get anything anywhere in under 5 hours. Starting by building autonomous forklifts, through to developing hypersonic highways. Samuel Carvalho: Recife, Brazil - @samuelclcc Praso is building the new infrastructure for wholesale commerce — powering procurement, credit, and workflow tools for SMBs across underserved areas in Brazil. Nick Dobroshinsky: Sammamish, WA - @NDobroshinsky EveryTicker is democratizing institutional-grade financial research across the entire U.S. stock market, including the thousands of smaller companies Wall Street ignores. Ishan Gupta: Kanpur, India - @ishangpta Juicebox is building an AI recruiter that helps companies make better hiring decisions. Agents that understand real skills and move hiring from guesswork to true meritocracy. Antoni Kiszka: Strzyżowice, Poland - @antoni_kiszka Derpetual is building the infrastructure to create a market for any asset — with leverage. Milan Lustig: Cold Spring Harbor, NY - @HighPriestOfSWO Opt32 is building modern compute infrastructure to put AI onboard objects in the physical world — from robots to cars and drones. Galen Mead: Chapel Hill, NC - @g413n Standard Intelligence is building aligned general learners, pretraining large models to actively explore and learn from the Internet. Aubrey Niederhoffer: New York, NY - @needaubrey Swoop is building the super app for Africa, starting with food delivery in Nigeria and expanding into financial services across the continent. Harry O'Connor: Cork, Ireland - @HarryOC493 Sentient Machines is a research lab building foundational models for robotics that generalize across tasks and environments. Alex Shieh: Salem, NH - @alexkshieh The Antifraud Company is a fraud bounty hunter defending American taxpayers with AI and investigative journalism. Claire Wang: Los Angeles, CA - @clairebookworm Claire is building biologically accurate simulations of entire nervous systems, starting with C. elegans. Developing a simulated brain that researchers can communicate with helps lay the foundation for brain-computer interface (BCI) technology. Kyler Wang: Portland, OR - @kylerywang Action is an artificial intelligence company in stealth.
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Jordan retweetledi
Jordan retweetledi
This means we’re pushing harder ! We need machinist, electrical and mechanical and mechatronics engineers. Reach out to me on careers@terrahaptix.com, we have a defense prime to build.
Nathan Nwachuku@_KingNath
@terraindustries raises additional $22M bringing our total seed to $34M. This extension round was led by @Lux capital, with participation from @8vc, Nova Global, Belief Capital, @SilentVentures, Tofino Capital, @R17_Ventures, and angels like US actor @JaredLeto & @jordsnel In the next few days, we will begin the rapid construction of a 2nd defense megafactory in Africa and grow our engineering workforce. This new capital accelerates our goal to give Africa the technological edge needed for counterterrorism & infrastructure security.
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Nathan Nwachuku@_KingNath
@terraindustries raises additional $22M bringing our total seed to $34M. This extension round was led by @Lux capital, with participation from @8vc, Nova Global, Belief Capital, @SilentVentures, Tofino Capital, @R17_Ventures, and angels like US actor @JaredLeto & @jordsnel In the next few days, we will begin the rapid construction of a 2nd defense megafactory in Africa and grow our engineering workforce. This new capital accelerates our goal to give Africa the technological edge needed for counterterrorism & infrastructure security.
ZXX
All things are downstream of courage. If you're cracked & care about Africa, you should work with @_KingNath and @Max_Sengu on securing our continent.
Nathan Nwachuku@_KingNath
@terraindustries raises additional $22M bringing our total seed to $34M. This extension round was led by @Lux capital, with participation from @8vc, Nova Global, Belief Capital, @SilentVentures, Tofino Capital, @R17_Ventures, and angels like US actor @JaredLeto & @jordsnel In the next few days, we will begin the rapid construction of a 2nd defense megafactory in Africa and grow our engineering workforce. This new capital accelerates our goal to give Africa the technological edge needed for counterterrorism & infrastructure security.
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I get sent a lot of venture firm fundraising decks and every single one of them claims that they have top decile returns.
I'm not a mathematician, but it doesn't seem possible for every fund to be top decile, right?
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Jordan retweetledi
Across Sub-Saharan Africa, security & governance vacuums have let bad actors move freely: terrorists, corrupt officials, and foreign countries expropriating resources.
Islamist terrorists in Nigeria have declared all Christians to be targets, killing and kidnapping with impunity.
Our @8VC team and I felt it’s time the bad guys had targets on their own backs.
Two of Nigeria’s boldest entrepreneurs, including a physics Olympiad winner and a top exited technical founder, have stepped up to build what’s needed: a modern defense prime that protects Africa’s citizens & infrastructure, allies with top US defense cos, and attracts top tech talent with the mission of a lifetime. They’re already manufacturing in multiple locations in Africa, and closing 8-figure USD deals.
Meet @terraindustries.
8VC@8vc
Today, @terraindustries is out of stealth. Proud to be lead investors and partner closely with @_KingNath & @Max_Sengu as they build Africa’s first modern defense prime to fight terror, foreign resource theft, and corruption across the continent. Full story below.
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Jordan retweetledi
.@terraindustries CEO @_KingNath says defense contracting in the US is much more bureaucratic than in Africa:
"No one is expecting you to write dozens of proposals and come to their office and present PowerPoints. They're expecting you to already have a solution to the problem."
"The defense contracting model in Africa is fundamentally very different from how it's done in the West. In the West, it's quite bureaucratic. It could take you one to two years before you get to a program of record. In Africa, it's very network-based and very solution-first."
"The Anduril approach of taking R&D head-on and having the actual products to then go carry out live demos in the field works perfectly for the model of defense contracting on the continent, and that has allowed us to scale very rapidly."
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Jordan retweetledi
Palantir co-founder Joe Lonsdale led investors betting on a little-known Nigerian defense startup that’s expanding drone manufacturing bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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Jordan retweetledi
We @novaholdings search the globe for out-of-distribution potential future world-historic individuals, and found exactly that in @_KingNath when we led the preseed. A deep bench of American defense investors now join @terraindustries mission to protect Africa.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Nathan Nwachuku@_KingNath
Announcing @terraindustries $11.7M round led by 8VC, the VC by Palantir founder @JTLonsdale Alex Moore, Board Director at Palantir, also joins Terra’s board @Max_Sengu & I started Terra to give Africa the technological edge needed for resource protection & counterterrorism (1/3)
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Generational opportunity for anyone on the continent!
Nathan Nwachuku@_KingNath
Announcing @terraindustries $11.7M round led by 8VC, the VC by Palantir founder @JTLonsdale Alex Moore, Board Director at Palantir, also joins Terra’s board @Max_Sengu & I started Terra to give Africa the technological edge needed for resource protection & counterterrorism (1/3)
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in short
early stage seed investing = buying far OTM calls, trading pure tails/kurtosis, bet on 0.1% chance moonshots that can 50x the fund, zero delta, doesn't care about current price, just needs massive inflection before time decay (theta) kills it
growth stage breakouts = trading ATM calls, higher vol, bigger jumps more likely, still asymmetric but pay-to-play, need big checks and access, delta rising, starts moving with market/AI hype/etc
late stage compounders = just buying the stock, trading mean expectation, Buffett-style hold forever, bet that your scenarios beat consensus
spray-and-pray access plays = trading beliefs, write small checks everywhere to stay in the network, win by access flywheel (SV Angel, Kima, and FJ Labs)
different funds do different things:
- Ribbit went tails (crypto) → vol (nubank) → mean ('fintech is dead')
- USV keeps resetting to new tails forever
obscenely rare that one investor (or a group) can articulate all three trades well
@yavuzyilanci
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of the last 11 uncapped podcasts, 7 were growth stage GPs. 3 of the last 5 for ILTB. most of them are variants of the idea that the big get bigger and being a part of cursor, mercor, major labs or some such is all that matters.
LPs (particularly agents) love this, because it's largely a momentum game and so benefits from more frequent markups and sellable stories (to principals). it's a trope now to say the big funds see seed as an option pool, but options are one way LPs think of it too:
tinyurl.com/highermoments
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Jordan retweetledi
Congrats to @VitalLyfe for emerging from stealth + announcing $24M in funding!
@TheSpaceVC invested at pre-seed alongside Cantos, Also Capital & Generation Partners
@VitalLyfe is building modular, desalination tech to solve the world's water crisis 🚿
axios.com/pro/climate-de…
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great essay by @ashleevance
you should read it! because tomorrow morning, i will release a two hour long podcast discussing the economics, prior failed approaches, and science of how tissue engineering works at Polyphron, filmed with the founders @thematthewosman and @FabioZB_I
i first talked to matt almost a year back via an intro by one of their investors (s/o to @shelbynewsad!), and it remains one of the most interesting conversations i have ever had
but even so, the thesis for the company was difficult to stomach. everyone knows complex tissue engineering doesnt work well! it’s too hard! so, when matt and fabio got on a call with me to discuss a podcast, i expressed every ounce of skepticism i had about how this couldnt possibly be viable
after several meetings between us, dozens of questions exchanged, and several hours of them patiently listening to me ramble, i have updated my beliefs. yes, complex tissue engineering is hard, maybe one of the hardest things you *can* do in biology.
but the philosophical/scientific manner by which Polyphron is going about it, alongside how deeply they are considering the very real market problems that come alongside new modalities, make me believe that if anybody will solve it, it will be them
all this and more discussed tomorrow!
Ashlee Vance@ashleevance
Mind-blowing scoop this morning on Polyphron. They're building human tissue - ie parts of organs - to replace diseased and damaged parts of the body. @eryney_ok delivered the goods on this one corememory.com/p/exclusive-cr…
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Are there any hedge funds focused on prediction markets? Or is anyone working on one?
Even simple between-exchange arbs seem very basic here
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@bwertz @kevinakwok came across this cheeky piece from 2010 - seems you’ve been facing these “basically a boomer” allegations for a while!
bcbusiness.ca/people/general…
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@jordsnel @kevinakwok "started at 39" - basically a boomer in emerging-manager land (at least by today's standards)!
Thanks for the write-up, Jordan - fun to look back at almost 14 years of investing through the lens of someone that has seen hundreds of VC funds...
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in 2020 @kevinakwok wrote a post on sutter hill with this graph and it's been stuck in my head since.
version one is one of these funds more people should study.
- first two funds are 10x, 8x on $15m, $27m
- built the firm from Vancouver of all places
- boris was 39 when he started it, no real track record
tinyurl.com/earlyversionone
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Which seed fund is absolutely crushing it right now and why?
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Version One
x.com/jordsnel/statu…
Jordan@jordsnel
in 2020 @kevinakwok wrote a post on sutter hill with this graph and it's been stuck in my head since. version one is one of these funds more people should study. - first two funds are 10x, 8x on $15m, $27m - built the firm from Vancouver of all places - boris was 39 when he started it, no real track record tinyurl.com/earlyversionone
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