Josef Fortier
598 posts
Josef Fortier
@JosefFortier
Old man with left politics and eclectic interests https://t.co/BnABGHkTZh
Katılım Nisan 2013
559 Takip Edilen40 Takipçiler
@AlexanderPayton Is gambling addictive?
It's clearly not the same mechanism as cigarettes or alcohol.
Can one be addicted to marijuana? Amphetamines? Both have a lot of similarity to the drugs you define as addictive, but the mechanism is different enough.
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@Noahpinion Seems a deeply flawed take to me.
A lot of folks who ID'ed as "Republican" 3+ years ago now ID as "independent". They're almost certainly lean-republican. This stat almost certainly reflects that rather than broad sentiment.
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Yes. In fact, the GOP currently has higher favorables than the Dems among Independents. And issue polls show that Americans agree with GOP issue stances more than Democratic stances. As long as the Dems stick to 2021-era progressive ideology, the GOP will bounce back quickly.
Bryan H.@X_BryanH
Craziest part about all of this is that Americans will go right back to voting Republican when this is all over.
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@physicsgeek Jeez....
The Tet Offensive was an NVA campaign. And yes it succeeded, it was much more effective than the US expected, and caused many in the US to realize that war could not be easily won. I mean, I know I'm old enough, but it's not that hard to google it...
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They're trying to Tet Offensive the Iran war. For those who don't remember, the Tet Offensive was a military success but Walter Cronkite came on the air and declared it to be a disaster and everyone just believed him.
Noah Rothman@NoahCRothman
The verdict from some quarters is in: The war is “quickly becoming a disaster.” The sooner Washington acknowledges its defeat, the better... That dour outlook seems wholly divorced from an objective appraisal of the war in its fourth week.
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@SeanTrende @lordsutch @MattGlassman312 That's the terminology that the traders use. It's not literal, and it's not about Trump's courage (or lack of). It is about how the market discounts rhetoric and prices in assumptions.
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@lordsutch @MattGlassman312 My post wasn't meant to justify Trump's actions. But TACO just seems really off-key right now given [waves hands around] all this.
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It is relevant right now that Trump's main political superpower is the ability to declare victory about anything at any time. That level of shamelessness makes TACOs/deescalation easier, and right now that's almost certainly a good thing.
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@domineeringDom @DKThomp 5-6 weeks is a very short war. Typical wars are closer 1 1/2 years. So, yes, Trump thought this would be short
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@DKThomp Can you cite sources or is this just vibes? Trump said from the outset this could be a five or six week “operation.”
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It’s amazing to me how many resources must be devoted to geopolitical strategy, intelligence gathering, and war planning in the US and Russia; and yet the two most high-profile wars of the last five years involve a military superpower attempting a blitzkrieg decapitation of an opponent and appearing shocked and stunned and flummoxed when the attacked adversary doesn’t surrender but actually fights back
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@Areezwj17 @glcarlstrom Israel would be in the fallout zone of a nuclear attack on Iran. Maybe not a rational plan?
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@glcarlstrom Then Gregg, what, according to your vast competence and know-how, must be the steps that would ensure the war concludes without Iran facing renewed aggression. If someone ask a novice like me: ‘GOING NUCLEAR’ would do the job.
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This gets at the heart of Iran's post-war dilemma:
1) there's no credible "pledge" that America and Israel won't attack you again, unless perhaps you're willing to make concessions that fundamentally change the character of the regime (which you're not)
2) you cannot directly deter America and Israel from attacking again
3) you can try to build a nuclear weapon as a deterrent, but that may be difficult (though not impossible) in light of 1 and 2
4) the further you go with trying to create deterrence by striking Gulf states/global energy markets, the more you will reinforce a view that your regime is a threat that must be militarily contained and eventually overthrown bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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@FortySacks I'm a Canadian citizen who's lived since childhood in the US. I've long felt that in-betweeness, but more from an internationalist perspective. I've never considered that some of this might be intrinsic to "canadianess" but that seems kinda true.
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Marshall McLuhan, one of the great Canadian minds, argued that Canadians occupy a unique position as outsiders looking in on the United States.
Because Canada is both geographically and culturally closest to the imperial core without being fully part of it, Canadians are close enough to understand the U.S. intimately but distant enough to perceive its underlying assumptions and patterns more clearly than Americans themselves.
McLuhan also describes Canada as a “counter-environment” or “anti-environment” to the United States, meaning that Canada’s position on the edge of American power makes its structure visible.
In a 1965 letter he said “Canada as anti-environment to the U.S.A. is able to perceive many of the ground rules and operational effects of the American environment that are quite imperceptible to the U.S.A.”
The Black Horse@TheBlackHorse65
This is an interesting dynamic; It is necessary for every Canadian who hopes to understand politics to understand American politics. This is not true in reverse. As a result, when Americans comment on colonial politics, there is almost always a very steep learning curve.
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@FortySacks The Irish historically had the same relationship with Britain - outsiders near to the imperial core, dominated by it but recalcitrantly so
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@ip_Guy_ One of the potential outcomes, Israel becomes the major regional power. How does that factor in to your thinking?
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@jaybee484 @bendreyfuss Worth noting that several self professed devout christians have done so here on this thread.
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@bendreyfuss I mean.... the voters of Texas might think Talarico is "the wrong kind of Christian", bc he is not conservative Evangelical.
But I don't think anyone should call him "not devout" - he's in seminary!
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I was raised in Idaho where there are only Christians, and I once hung out with John Paul II, and one thing I’ve gleaned in my time with Christians—of whom I am quite fond—is that they come in many flavors and you probably shouldn’t say “you’re not the right type of Christian”
Bonchie@bonchieredstate
James Talarico is what left-wingers and mainstream journalists think a devout Christian is because they’ve never actually interacted with any devout Christians.
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@DunhamBrennan @dustychub @cowboy_postbop That's exactly the parent posts view, with minor labeling changes. Her peers are educated liberals, and she's just a bit outside of that grouping (whether that's "conservative", or just kind of contrarian)
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@dustychub @cowboy_postbop She’s definitely more libertarian than left economically but culturally I think she’s got more in common with a standard centrist Dem than any other group
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@duane2020a @vincempls There is always a driver....
And that's all there is in most cars, one driver.
From what I can tell, there's really not much difference.
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@vincempls Everyone else should have to stop and wait for an empty bus to drive by.
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The frequency of E-line BRT is every 10 minutes, but due to no signal priority nor dedicated bus lanes in the densest part of the city, that number is just an average.
zophia@visceralscenery
why doesn't the E line have signal priority. my life is constant pain
Minneapolis, MN 🇺🇸 English
@86TheFascists @RealMartyT7 I'm from Minneapolis...
Take that as you will.
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Will they face local authorities and citizens? So far local authorities have been the "loyal opposition." They've been all talk and no actual action on the ground to stop the abuse.
I'm not convinced that the citizens are where they need to be mentally to take the actions needed.
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MAGA Republicans are circulating Trump’s scheme to steal the 2026 election. Trump will declare an “election emergency” and issue executive orders allowing the executive branch to take over elections nationwide. States will no longer run elections. Trump will declare mail in voting illegal and his regime will decide who is qualified to vote. And more importantly who is not.
States will be ordered to turn over all voter rolls for a massive purge of registered voters. The executive branch will count all ballots and declare winners and losers. Folks, this is a democracy ending scheme by panicked Republicans who know they are facing a massive Blue Tsunami this fall.
Mike Johnson has signaled his support for this clearly illegal scheme. This is a 5 alarm fire. We stop the Mad Wannabe King and his immoral minions in the MAGA GOP in their tracks or we become a one party state like Putin‘s Russia or Kim Jong Un’s North Korea.
#DemsUnited #DV1 #USDemocracy
No Lie with Brian Tyler Cohen@NoLieWithBTC
Breaking: MAGA activists say they are coordinating with the White House to get Trump to declare a national emergency that would give him executive power over voting. They believe this would allow him to shut down democracy ahead of the midterms.
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@86TheFascists @RealMartyT7 Elections are handled locally, not by the feds.
Which points to how we handle it.
It's probably smoke and mirrors, but if they actually try to seize ballots they will be stretched very thin and facing local authorities and citizens
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@RealMartyT7 How does we stop it?
Dem leadership in is ineffective at best and collaborators at worst.
Courts won't stop it. Congress won't stop it. Letters, protests, laws, etc. won't stop it.
Americans aren't ready for what it actually takes to stop it.
86thefascists.wordpress.com/2025/10/05/lib…
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@janthonylong @gelliottmorris @jonathanchait @mattyglesias Flip side of this, someone like Newsom is perceived as "strong" but detested by much of the online left. I've no idea where you stand on this, but I think the two pundits would be OK with Newsom
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@gelliottmorris Please read this, @jonathanchait and @mattyglesias and kindly STFU about how we need more "moderate" Dems to win.
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The entire Democratic strategy debate — "moderate" or move left? fight or compromise? — is based on a misreading of data. Voters don't think Dems are too progressive; they think Dems are weak. The actual math on what to do about this isn't even close!
New: gelliottmorris.com/p/new-poll-dem…
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@HausenKS You are describing the pathology of algorithmic social media, not "the left" in general, but how the most visible "left" behaves in this distorted fishbowl.
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Last political post for awhile I hope, but this has to be said.
I’m not a Trump supporter and honestly, a lot of people who aren’t Trump supporters are still completely fed up with the far left right now.
Not because of “progress,” or “fairness,” or any of the values they claim to own. It’s because of the behavior: the purity tests, the tribalism, the reflex to label anyone who disagrees, even slightly, as an enemy. One wrong word, one nuanced opinion, one “I don’t fully agree,” and suddenly you’re a fascist, a bigot, or “part of the problem.” That’s not activism. That’s a cult mindset.
Compromise is treated like betrayal. Questions are treated like violence. And “the science” gets invoked like a religious slogan, right up until the data becomes inconvenient, then it’s ignored, reframed, or shouted down. Meanwhile, the same people who demand empathy have none for anyone outside their in-group.
Normal people are exhausted. We want solutions, not moral grandstanding. We want reality, not ideology. And we’re done pretending this kind of insane extremism is “just being passionate.”
Sincerely,
Normal people everywhere
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@BrynnTannehill @Chris_arnade With you until point 3...
This would be local authority, not national. Trump has nothing to do with it.
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@Chris_arnade 1. Some homeless people are like John. Others are not and would use assistance responsibly.
2. In other times, John would have been institutionalized, true
3. Increased legal authority to institutionalize would mostly be used by Trump to put ALL trans people in camps.
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I met John in Phoenix. He had set himself on fire the day before, freebasing a perc 30, and refused to go to the hospital because he didn't want to lose his favorite spot behind the garbage bin, since it was only a block away from dealers, and perfect to piss in.
He had a government room he didn't use, because catching on fire (something he did every now and then) set off smoke alarms.
He also thought it was cursed and monitored by the same people who had held him captive on an island in the middle of the pacific -- and island he escaped from three months before by swimming the 400 miles. He showed me an arm, covered with burns, that he claimed was where a shark had bit him.
John should not be out on the streets setting himself on fire. If you cannot see that, then I can't help you
Eugene V. D.E.B.S. (2004)@sarahwaters420
the “people are homeless because they refuse housing” line is so infuriating bc ut comes from a real place, but what people are actually refusing is parternalistic control. People do want housing, they just don’t want curfews, bureaucratic bullshit, sobriety requirements, etc.
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@promethurious @hecubian_devil Jeez dude, Cassie is writing from the experience of being stabbed. It's completely "touched her life".
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@hecubian_devil Probably the second it touches your life… I’d wager that you’d care.
And depending on the severity, you’d likely care very quickly and probably quite a bit.
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I see we are once again doing “mental illness can obviously make you kill yourself or drown your own baby, things of that nature, but it definitely can’t make you say bad words, that’s your vile and corrupt soul” discourse again.
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@trash_panda97 I ride (the MSP) rail most every day. My wife and daughter, though they are ideologically in favor of riding do not. I feel like this take, that the issue is "toughing up" seems awful close to telling women that they should "toughen up" and deal with harassment.
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i’ve been on the subway with homeless people that peed, screamed, all sorts of stuff. it was mildly uncomfortable but truly didn’t impact my day in any way. maybe your husband needs to toughen up
daniela@daniela__127
My husband was on a crowded train yesterday when a homeless woman got on, pulled down her pants, and peed all over the train in front of everyone. He hasn’t stopped talking about it for the past 24+ hrs. It is the single most traumatizing thing that’s happened to him in nyc.
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