Joshua Schremp

@ckleene I feel like the bears have been taking it on the chin since February. Big level here though for SX

Bean bulls taking it on the chin today. . .

PRESIDENT TRUMP: “IF GAS PRICES KEEP RISING, LET THEM RISE. I’M NOT BOTHERED.”

IRAN REJECTS U.S. STRAIT OF HORMUZ DEAL AS ‘UNREALISTIC’ Senior Iranian official Mohsen Rezaei said Tehran will not accept a U.S. plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz unless it includes reparations for war damage. He rejected Washington’s proposed framework, saying Iran will not accept symbolic concessions and insists on “tangible benefits” in any agreement. Rezaei added that Iran will continue its “resistance,” signaling no softening in its stance despite ongoing negotiations.

SHELL CEO STATED THEY HAVE CREATED A SIGNIFICANT SHORTAGE OF NEARLY A BILLION BARRELS OF CRUDE OIL, AND THE SITUATION IS GETTING WORSE DAILY.

@JasonBohlke Bears still scratching their heads… fundamentals just don’t support these grain prices. lol

Been awhile since we hit 5 on Dec #corn futures. Let’s go!

Bull market in U.S. grain prices???? This is composite of Beans, Wheat and Corn Massive base has been completed

If a farmer in Mato Grosso started to buy beans and corn inputs right now for 2026-27, that would be the profit per hectare, based on current prices for NC - only R$ 700/ha combining S+C (the avrg is R$ 3023/ha).

US Drought Monitor - Latest Update 🌽 CORN BELT 🔹IA largely D0–D1 across much of the state; dryness present but not alarming yet at planting time 🔹IL mostly D0–D1, some pockets of D2 in the south; subsoil moisture likely below average in some areas 🔹IN/OH D0–D1 fringe, eastern Corn Belt in relatively better shape 🔹MN D1–D2 across a good portion; northern extent of concern 🚨NE significant D2–D3 coverage, especially central &western; this is a red flag going into May planting 🔹MO D2–D3 widespread; southern Corn Belt under real stress, pockets of too much recent rain ⚠️ Key Concern: The western Corn Belt (NE, KS border) is already in D3 territory before stress window. A dry May would accelerate deterioration rapidly. 🌾 WINTER WHEAT BELT 🚨Kansas D3–D4 covering a large swath, particularly central and western KS, this is the epicenter 🔸Oklahoma D2–D3 dominant, major crop stress 🔸Texas Panhandle D3–D4 dryland wheat in serious trouble 🔸Colorado eastern plains D2–D3, another significant hard red winter wheat growing area under pressure 🚨 Critical Takeaway: This is the worst possible time for D3–D4 drought + freeze damage. Yield losses have already being baked in for HRW. This is bullish fundamental story for KC wheat. 💡 Bottom Line for Markets 🐂 Bullish for HRW wheat crop stress at the worst timing 🐂 Corn Belt dryness warrants a premium in new crop Dec corn if May stays dry 🐂 Southern Plains pasture deterioration adds further support to tight cattle supply story 👀 Watch the 6–14 day precip forecasts closely relief rains could flip the narrative fast​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ IMO especially for the western belt.

Using #cmdtyView to gauge just how bad HRW is and it's bad... really bad. 🚨 U.S. WINTER WHEAT IN CRISIS and the chart below shows just how ugly it really is. 🌾 Current G/E rating just 30%, below EVERY historical benchmark going back 30 years 👇 📉14% below 5yr avg (44%) 👀 25% below 30yr norm (55%) 🌵 OK, TX & CO: 50%+ rated Poor/VP 🔥 Worst spring rating since 2022 🐂 Bullish for KC HRW but global grain glut could cap rally 📊 Watch May USDA reports closely.

@jasonlbritt What have the grain bears been missing and still are? The macro environment is key…higher energy prices which look more sustainable by the day and inflation rising.. It’s astonishing how many say prices shouldn’t be here. Does that mean not to manage risk, no..

Crude going higher, commodities going higher, interest rates going higher and equities still holding their own for now......almost feels like a rigged game.......

China has booked more vessels this season for the Jan-Aug window, with more coming out of the US and less from Brazil. Some would say this is no surprise: political beans — China buying beans it does not really need. The surprising is: Brazil has sold 2.5 Mi t more to non-China destinations, while the US is arnd +2 Mi t YoY.

Three ways to play the ongoing bull market in U.S. grain prices peterlbrandt.com/massive-bull-m… Corn $ZC_F Soybeans $ZS_F Rapeseed $RS_F

@jasonlbritt This is the fastest I ever seen so many completely done in SE IL and SE MO

The planting delays are starting to become a little more of a reality at this point for some areas. Not that we matter, but Missouri is a no go.

IRAN HAS CUT OFF DIRECT COMMUNICATIONS WITH THE U.S. OVER PRESIDENT TRUMP’S THREAT TO DESTROY IRAN’S “WHOLE CIVILIZATION” MONDAY MORNING, THOUGH TALKS WITH CEASE-FIRE MEDIATORS CONTINUE, MIDDLE EASTERN OFFICIALS SAID. THE MOVE HAS TEMPORARILY COMPLICATED EFFORTS TO MAKE A DEAL BY TRUMP’S 8 P.M. DEADLINE TUESDAY BUT HASN’T ENDED THE TALKS, THE OFFICIALS SAID. - WSJ

IRAN'S PRESIDENT, IN LETTER TO AMERICAN PEOPLE: ATTACKING IRAN’S VITAL INFRASTRUCTURE TARGETS THE IRANIAN PEOPLE AND SUCH ACTIONS CARRY CONSEQUENCES THAT EXTEND FAR BEYOND IRAN’S BORDERS

PENTAGON DOUBLING FLEET OF A-10 ATTACK PLANES IN MIDDLE EAST EVEN AS TRUMP SAYS HE WANTS TO END IRAN WAR IN 2-3 WEEKS – NYT

Deescalation at its finest.

@JasonBohlke @cb_catt Well off the lows in corn and beans. I think they’re already frustrated

@JoshuaSchremp @cb_catt If corn and beans go green today bears will be more frustrated than Mike Tyson at a spelling bee.

Who is still bullish corn and soybeans?

@JasonBohlke @cb_catt Bingo!

@JoshuaSchremp @cb_catt Bears are ignoring macros. Funds are not dumb they see the fundamentals. Have to ask why they are doing what they are doing. It’s not because of carry outs or acres.