KG

@TradetheMatrix1 @NorthumbriaTG Look at SMCI 2024-02-14 / UAMY 2025-10-14. Final days are trading into price discovery. Candle lows aren't even testing PHOD. CAR trades a lot inside prior days' ranges. It's a form or price acceptance imho. @TheOneLanceB explains it best

@NorthumbriaTG @KG__trading Not strongly enough in my view, bit too linear.

Even if it drops by 100 points the thing has spread of 1/4th of that. How can that qualify as amazing trade? There is 5 trades I have taken in last 7 days that outdo it on random tickers without fundamental reasons behind the trade. Sometimes traders get too much conviction on low liquid assets that mathematically dont make sense yet. If it goes to 800 or 1000 then yes, the ratio starts to make sense. Plus we just kicked into risk-on two days ago, short squeezes can have legs in that kind of risk profile shift (temporarily). This aint good short unless much higher. $CAR

@Valckrie Great callout on software Thursday, forgot to thank you!

$XLK gained 4.5% this week But there is huge dispersion within the sector - many stocks are seeing 10-25% moves either direction Losers: $AKAM -23% $NOW -19% $INTU -17% Winners: $INTC +24% $SNDK +21% $MPWR +21% It's still a stock picker's market

@TheShortSniper Follow the installation steps, it's a 2 min process and has never failed me (yet)

@TheShortSniper OldTweetDeck, I had to use the github repo back then ~ github.com/dimdenGD/OldTw…

We can't use Tweet Deck anymore unless I pay $600/year??? WTH This is crazy.

@The_Avg_Bear Yes, only 9% free float relative to SO (per finviz, would have to double check in filings). Massive's data isn't very reliable for fundamentals, but it's not that hard to extract it from filings using Python!

@KG__trading Thanks, that's a very interesting point you're making: Wasn't $GLE like that too?

💣 Reflexiva 💣 El reciente cisne negro de $PLYX me ha dejado una estela de preocupación y reflexión. Creo que muchos no se percatan de la magnitud, ha sido el más brutal, por lejos. Comparto un análisis descriptivo introductorio sobre el tema. Aclaro, no es concluyente, es descriptivo. Cito a @vitalesiak que me ha pedido que lo mantenga al tanto, y a @sergidown porque es Messi. (🧵)

@The_Avg_Bear Hope I am not too late :) $PLYX was a locked float (float/shares outstanding = 8.6%). So was $TCGL. Great study, would be curious to see it done excluding tickers with more than 70% of shares locked.

Sin más, me despido. Espero haber aportado valor con todo esto. Estoy abierto a cualquier DM para seguir conversando, cualquier crítica bienvenida sea, no pretendo tener razón, solo aportar un análisis. Seguiré compartiendo reflexiones en el futuro sobre éste tema, porque esto modelará mi trading en el futuro. A partir de ahora mi foco está en "profesionalizar" lo más que pueda, y adoptar un enfoque de supervivencia extremo, asumiendo que tarde o temprano un cisne negro de estos me afectará de lleno. Si te parece que he aportado valor, por favor, re-tweet. Es importante trasmitir lo PELIGROSO que es este tipo de trading. NOTA: Esto es exploratorio y puede tener ruido (splits/outliers). Aun así, el patrón de cola es claro.

@Valckrie thank you very much!

@KG__trading maybe so but the recent 3-5 day move gold hasn't had a pullback but GDX did and was sideways

Short $GLD $GC looks like potential top

@TheShortBear Excited! Been working on a similar tool after your CWT podcast.

Big news coming soon I have been working on during the summer. I hope it will allow you all to build out and backtest edges easily! 🚨

@TradetheMatrix1 100% agreed. @smbcapital’s content is especially great imo! Rewatching the 10 years of archive brought me great value.

The issue about educational YouTube content for trading (from point of someone who early on consumed more of it than most that you know): If someone has been in market for two or three years they can't make 30min video on "valuable content" every single day. Not unless you fill 90% of that with distraction and nonsense. Experience and your value output does not scale 1:1 but rather 10:1. Someone with 10X years in markets only has 1X amount of something to say before he starts talking just all nonsense. The point about value: It should be rare. Many YouTubers wake up with goal to make one long video every day (because that's what builds revenue or exposure). Thats not how actual value output works if you have honest aim of providing truthful content. If you want to say something with impact you don't know when you will be ready for that and it might take days or weeks or years to master one concept. Therefore the goal of consistent content especially when not backed with tons of experience makes little sense. And to highlight most content creators are traders with under 5 years of experience. Creating content on daily basis is mostly about skeeming topics. Because if you do care about output quality there is just a lot that shouldn't be said. A lot of ideas that should just stay ideas and not see the light of day in video form. If you do proper research in markets you'll notice often ideas get debunked by your own testing and certain strategies make no sense when placed in bigger multi-year context. So over time you learn to be more careful about quickly assuming which strategy should or shouldn't work. That carefulness is something that a lot content creators do not have. This means you have to discount a lot of topics unworthy of making content on. It's also the type of content that's the issue. If all this excess content was just statistical research and observations of market behaviors it wouldn't be a problem. It's that many videos package the content as "whole solutions and strategies". "This is the only video you will ever need to become...." If you spend time reading medial research data on experimental drugs (which shares certain qualities with markets and trading) one thing you'll never see in publications is a guarantees or words used to summarize wholistic addressing. In fact company / researchers can get in trouble quickly by doing that. Funny enough in smallcaps there isn't much video content at all. Meanwhile in FX markets or crypto it's about 1000 times more video content. It's huge distraction in FX and crypto especially. The highest leveraged markets thats where this phenomena gets ballooned.

@TheShortBear @ssmcapital Mastering one is hard enough, switching endlessly makes the game impossible, 100% agreed

I have been trading with this approach for years now. I made money each year since. If I can be green during a market crash using it, I think that’s good enough. The truth is adjusting to quick regime shifts would mean you thinking you can predict them accurately. In reality what often happens is that people shift their approach after substained periods of underperformance, just in time to underperform while the original approach would have outperformed. The key is to find an approach that minimizes losses during bad times and outperforms in good ones. Most try to outperform in each market by using completely different trading philosophies and end up trailing behind good markets with their performance. Same goes for strategies. An ideal strategy scales with markets but keeps its core skew across all markets. In good markets you just get more expected range and more hits, but the core trade/trading approach remains the same.

Effective pyramiding and maximizing only works once an edge is already in place. It is the art of trade between win rate and an exponential trade outcome distribution on the right side(profit). It is the art of letting go from being right to making the biggest money. It is the art of letting go of extremely consistent profits to consistent outperforming over time. You can not successfully apply this needed technique if you have no edge to begin with. It is the decision that takes you from the 1% to the 0.01%, not one that will change unprofitable trading into profitable. This concludes this topic about which I reflected these past days. If anything is unclear reach out below this tweet 👇🏼

@TheShortBear I’m still trying to refine agendas on mid-large caps, especially on the stats/quant side (not sure you use it as much for higher stocks). Would love more details on it in future posts !

“My best trader makes money only 63% of the time. Most traders make money only in the 50 to 55% range. That means you’re going to be wrong a lot. If that’s the case, you better make sure your losses are as small as they can be, and that your winners are bigger.” - Steve Cohen __ Key lesson: •Maximizing wins is the key to outperformance, not being right. •Top traders are right 50% of the time ->Your job is to create a positive skew within your outcome probability. Extremely important: A high win rate strategy, in some cases, can be made into a more profitable strategy by aiming for more pyramiding and expanded RR. -> Accepting being wrong more often can increase the profitability and scalability of your approach. 1. Size base on setup grade for quant/trading strategies. 2. Creating pyramiding opportunities requires range combined with high RR. 3. Allowing yourself to pyramid requires you to take more breakeven trades that would have been wins. You need to allow yourself to take less wins. Overall it is by doing the uncomfortable that you truly outperform. The result: The best odds trades are taken with size, the best performing of the best odds opportunities are pyramided and maximized through it. It creates an exponential curve in the profit expectancy curve, while the losses stay put. The difference: • noob: increasing risk to increase reward • pro: decrease win rate to increase reward exponentially

@muninn Yep! Excited to see it

Only 5-15% finish online courses Expected elease date for the earnings gapper study is Oct/Nov It's not a course, but I intend to design it so that as many as possible learn and takes action from it To make it so I need some test pilots Interested?

@TheOneLanceB Hi Lance! Comparing your views to @TheShortBear's, who thought of TOP & WAL as black swans (staying away), what makes you like these two so much? Specifically, why do you see an outsized EV in these? Thanks ! (ref: twitter.com/TheShortBear/s…)

MAY ‘23 TOP OPPS Very opportunistic month, worth deep review. ATLX 5/3 5/4 WAL / PACW / Banks 5/4 AMD / NVDA 5/4 GLD/USO 5/4 TOP 5/4 IEP FSLR 5/12 MBOT 5/22 NVDA 5/24 AH Semis, AVGO SDA 5/31 *Intentionally left without comment*

@muninn Interested, excited to see it!

If you're interested in being among the first to get access: comment or dm me 👇 Quick update: worked all night on this More quirks than expected to work out in order to take this from a locally ran thing to public app Doing a few back-end optimizations to increase speed 🔥

@TheShortBear Impressed! Do you remember the reasoning for not taking a partial at 1650 / LOD? Pure conviction and trailing stop never hit? Thanks!

This costly first mistake got me to not be as aggresive as I wanted and got me to trade more conservatively as I covered it all rather than the 3/5 split I would usually do on my most conservative shorts. This is the similar to the $TSLA setup from 2020 for $500,000

$AVGO +31,858 What a costly mistake. I entered very small with 2k and added to 4k at 850. That breakout of 855 should have been the exit but the spread was so wide that you couldn't truly determine if we went through it or not. We pushed higher immediately.

@Matthew1trades @TheShortBear You need money to buy bonds. This money will be stacked by the US gov as cash reserves -> effectively "pulled out" of the financial system -> reducing liquidity (total money supply).

The QT might end soon and here is why👇🏼 The debt ceiling poses a bigger risk than we realize. Today's circumstances are unique, and the real problem lies in the aftermath of reaching an agreement. When the debt ceiling is extended, the Treasury's cash balance for daily operations becomes extremely low, as it is now. After an agreement, the government must issue debt quickly to sustain its functions due to the ongoing fiscal deficit. The market has absorbed growing debt before, but the current adverse macro environment demands greater attention. The US Treasury market is the foundation of our financial system. Positive developments on the debt ceiling coincide with higher long-term interest rates. The true risk lies in the escalating and concerning nature of the debt problem, not only in a failing to reach an agreement. Despite substantial issuances, foreign investors are not buying US Treasuries and the FED as a buyer has disappeared to make room for QT. In essence, we could see 800b of issuance take place once the new debt limit deal passes and the QT will compete with the insurance of bonds to fund the treasury cash balance. The lack of demand may force the Fed to step in as the buyer of last resort, similar to the UK BOE's intervention. __ BOE intervention: 1. The recent BOE intervention is a crucial reminder of the potential consequences of escalating debt. 2. It was triggered by a tax cut announcement that posed a significant risk to the UK's financial stability. 3. As a response, the BOE decided to become a buyer of UK bonds, stepping in to ensure stability amidst the potential crisis. 4. This emphasizes the need for central banks to act as buyers of last resort during times of heightened risk. __ We have two consequences through this dynamic. The first is that the insurance of bonds to replenish cash reserves will tighten liquidity. Some FED members are expecting the equivalent of >25bps tightening to unfold. The second one is the somewhat equivalent effect of QT, which creates a double tightening effect. While these dynamics will likely make further dramatic stock market gains harder, it also creates yet another element that puts pressure on the FED to pause or at least think about a QT reduction. This comes just weeks after the banking crisis which will be impacted as the bonds issuance will put pressure on exactly the asset class that put pressure on lending. In short, this new positive debt ceiling increase hides a lot more behind it through the specific current tightening situation (rates and QT) which we didn’t have in the past. Something that isn’t talked about enough currently.