Olamiemie

@BigpictureBTC Nav per share bro? Your dilution calcs didn't account for it no? Assumed a 543 max dollar value and that's it?

@KeMingYu1 BTC per share is a cool concept and all, but remember you buy and sell at Fiat price per share. Hopefully, that can change one day.

Strategy (MSTR) Preferred Dividend Burn Math. The Bottom Line: At its current growth rate, Strategy will exhaust its $2.25B preferred dividend reserve in 9 to 10 months. If ATM issuance continues compounding at this pace, dividend obligations will hit nearly $700 Billion in 2.5 years. Even if the $MSTR share price skyrockets back to its previous all-time high of $543, the company would still have to dilute common shareholders by nearly 400% just to pay the preferred yields. Here is the exact math using official SEC filings and live corporate dashboards. 1/ The Starting Line Feb 5, 2026: Q4 Earnings 8-K announced a $2.25B USD Reserve (effective Feb 1) to fund "2.5 years" of preferred dividends. Today is April 13, 71 days later. 2/ STRC Variable Burn STRC obligations grow dynamically via ATM issuance. •Feb 1: $3.4B Notional at 11.25% yield = $1,047,945/day. •April 13: $6.357B Notional at 11.50% yield = $2,003,142/day. •71-Day Average Cost: $1,525,543/day. Total STRC burned: $108.31M. 3/ Fixed Preferred Burn Based on Form 424B5 and Q4 filings: •STRE: ~$716.8M USD notional at 10% = $196,383/day. •STRD: $292.4M notional at 10% = $80,109/day. •STRF: $202.6M notional at 10% = $55,506/day. •STRK: $50.0M notional at 8% = $10,958/day. Total Fixed Burn ($342,956/day * 71 days): $24.35M. 4/ Remaining Cash Reserve Starting Reserve: $2,250,000,000 Less STRC Burn: -$108,310,000 Less Fixed Burn: -$24,350,000 Current Reserve: $2,117,340,000 ($2.117B). 5/ Exponential Depletion STRC grew from $3.4B to $6.357B in 71 days (86.9% absolute growth). Compound Monthly Growth Rate (CMGR): (6.357 / 3.4) ^ (30 / 71) - 1 = 30.06% monthly compounding. If 30.06% growth continues, starting with today's $71.36M monthly burn and $2.117B reserve: •Month 1: $71.3M burn ($2.04B left) •Month 4: $144.5M burn ($1.69B left) •Month 7: $305.7M burn ($933M left) •Month 9-10: Reserve exhausted. 6/ Cost to Regain 2.5-Year Runway What is the cost to refill a 30-month reserve? •Static (Stop Issuance): 30 months requires $2.14B. With $2.117B left, the deficit is $23.8M. Requires issuing 183k common shares at $130. •Dynamic (30.06% Growth Continues): The sum of 30 months of compounding dividend obligations is $699.7B ($699.4B STRC + $0.3B Fixed). Deficit: $697.6 Billion. 7/ The Price Target Illusion Strategy bulls will argue that the share price will be much higher by then, making the dilution negligible. Let's run the math on raising that $697.6 Billion deficit against a current float of roughly 333 Million outstanding shares. Here is the exact dilution required to pay the 30-month dividend bill at higher price targets: •At $130/share: 5.36 Billion shares issued (1,609% dilution) •At $200/share: 3.48 Billion shares issued (1,045% dilution) •At $300/share: 2.32 Billion shares issued (696% dilution) •At $400/share: 1.74 Billion shares issued (522% dilution) •At $500/share: 1.39 Billion shares issued (417% dilution) •At $543/share (Previous ATH): 1.28 Billion shares issued (386% dilution) Conclusion: Even in a hyper-bull scenario where MSTR reclaims its previous ATH of $543 per share, maintaining this 30% monthly ATM growth rate requires nearly quadrupling the outstanding share count just to pay the preferred dividends. If ATM issuance halts, Bitcoin accumulation stops. If issuance continues, the math dictates hyper-dilution regardless of the stock price. Unless he starts selling their BTC in which case the narrative and model collapses… It seems a vast majority of MSTR shareholders don’t understand what they’re cheering for. From a common shareholders perspective, $STRC should not be viewed as Digital Credit, but rather Digital Kamikaze….

@SuperBitcoinBro @camelfinance If you EVER spent time looking at camel's video, you know he predicts time not price, the price levels are arbitrary. Chillout and no need to read price levels off his charts.

@camelfinance Hey Barbra Streissand. When you find yourself in a hole, stop digging.

I said in the video don’t take anything too seriously. How you can look at the price between your low and FTX and say that wasn’t a downward move is embarrassing. You are crying because you said ‘the low was in until a new low showed up’ and I laughed at this and said ‘so the low wasn’t in’ because it’s funny that you choose to ignore a low to force your idea to work. It’s business not personal. Get a grip man. You make a bunch of accusations and act all butthurt You said I’m calling 30k and I’m not. You said I’m selling a bottom signal which I’m not. Don’t you see the irony of getting annoyed with alleged lies whilst lying?? All you have is name calling and false accusations. And a chart that clearly moves down for months even though you say it doesn’t. Until a lower low shows up 😂😂 I will admit I said 25% lower off the top of my head and in fact it was more like 12%. Normally my memory is better than that. But your reaction here is way overblown. I’d be embarrassed if I were you.

@automate_archit @stevehou Funny how this is also ai generated

Apparently workers in China have been creating “colleagues.skill” to distill their coworkers hoping to make them redundant hence saving themselves. In response someone has recently invented an “anti-distillation.skill” that has gone viral on GitHub.🤣

@LMAoOooF2 @camelfinance I can see the forking being a very bloody battle to make it (more) quantum resistant

@camelfinance Quantum computers is a problem longer term but with some investment it could be fixed.

Am I the only one that thinks bitcoin is still bitcoin? I entered the bitcoin market in 2018. The way I see it. Each year since then, it’s gotten more certain, it’s stronger, it’s more secure, it’s made macro higher lows, it’s got more institutional backing, clearer regs. It’s gotten easier for me to hold over time. I remember 2018 - late 22 and every time it corrected it was tough. There was always that ‘it could actually die here’ thought. Since then I just think it’s become a real asset class. I see it as a commodity. One with staying power. IMO it’s just waiting on a print late this year. Then it’s going to do bitcoin things again. I see many losing hope. Many giving up. Many saying it’s gonna die or whatever. I dunno, feels a lot like I am one of the few that’s optimistic about it long term. I think most of the problem was unmanaged expectations. Sure the space is gross and many bad players have harmed the reputation. But that’s the beautiful thing about Bitcoin. Bitcoin doesn’t care.

@rationalbiohack @camelfinance Looks like you are quoting recent correlation. It did decouple since last October

@camelfinance Issue is it goes up with the snp, Nasdaq - it seems dependant on the broader stock market. If it’s always dependant on that then what happens when the stock market enters a lost decade? Will it just move sideways for the foreseeable future?

@JoshKale The question is. How is the nav calculated? Is it subject to public markets pricing? If not, then the premium to nav IS the public market pricing, while the NAV is a bullshit measure

The Anthropic mini IPO is unfolding and you already missed a 15x return The stock is named VCX by Fundrise and just went up 1,500% in 5 days on the NYSE It’s a fund holding: - Anthropic = 21% - OpenAI = 10% - SpaceX = 5% - Databricks = 18% - Anduril = 7% $VCX has a NAV of $19 per share. This morning it just traded at $312. That means the market is valuing a $650 million fund at $5.4 billion 🤯 Investors are paying an 8x premium just to touch these companies. Why? Because the most important companies being built right now refuse to go public. And people are so desperate for exposure that they will pay almost anything to get it. The private markets are sitting on trillions in value that public investors have been locked out of and this stampede tells you everything about how much hype there will be around these IPOs. I hope this speeds things up

@lockintrade @WatcherGuru What margin call? Tell me all about the margin terms and liquidation level?

@WatcherGuru marathon discovering liquidity is a thing you need before the margin call

JUST IN: Bitcoin miner Marathon Digital $MARA sells 15,133 BTC worth over $1 billion.

@Michael_Liu93 你特么难道没发现ATM 就是为了monetise cap growth?你用model算一下就知道 new price= old price+change in price-dividend. 用ATM触发change in price相当于dividend

@KeMingYu1 capital growth and cashflow are not equivalent，怎么 他给的利息只记不发吗？

最简单的，如果mstr没钱支付strc的“利息”，需要把利息降为0了，那么strc会直接脱锚。如果mstr已经需要通过降利息去维持strc的存活，strc一定已经开始脱锚。 尊重常识这么难吗？一个无息资产如何去支付长期11.5%的利息？ 你在2017年18000买的btc，现在3.8x 你在2017年1150买的黄金，现在3.8x 快十年了，btc并没有“超额”跑赢黄金，但波动率上大的不止一点半点。 换别的无息资产利息无中生有，你痛骂旁氏骗局，怎么换成btc就：这是历史上最伟大的金融创新了呢？

@GrauGustav @PiusSprenger Saying this during a bear market is poopoo

@PiusSprenger Isn't an asset with power law growth totally alien to the financial industry, where everything has to grow exponentially (with smaller or larger growth rates) just to service debt and overcome inflation? Bitcoin has a few decades left, but has aleady declined to QQQ-level growth.

Nope. Bitcoin won’t go exponential, hyperbolic, or whatever crazy growth people imagine. It just follows a power law with a nice 5.8 exponent. And guess what? That’s good enough for me.

Best of way being wrong is making money while being wrong. Fundamentals allow you to pick the fastest horse, cycles tell you when to buy the horse. Cycles doesn't care about news, news retrofit to explain cycles. Follow this guy, he is wrong for years on end and make 100% CAGR

@aleabitoreddit @darth_kirk You aren't familiar with MSTR?

@darth_kirk Only with $IREN and $AMC have I seen investors try to spin their shares getting diluted to oblivion as a positive thing.

3 days later $IREN is having another $6B ATM, selling almost half their marketcap on the open market. Monetizing 3-4GW capacity sounds good, but not if you’re an existing shareholder. Doesn’t look like their economics cover enough of their capex in the way $NBIS does. My bull case, alongside everyone else’s last year: was for $IREN to do colo and fund GPU related expansion with FCF. This materially changed and added execution uncertainty + endless dilution on top.

@ActuallyClimber You have truly become tiresome. All of your posts about bashing treasuries rather than identifying new opportunities. Unfollowed

No lol. If Strategy is paying a billion people 8% interest, where’s the money come from? The other 7 billion are just buying MSTR and Bitcoin to fund it all? K. It’s funny too because Saylor has said we’d better not call Bitcoin a currency because governments would feel threatened. Then he goes on to produce a product to directly compete with money markets. lol good luck.

@danheld @second_bailout Read the article. The article didn't argue that BTC is fully fungible/private. It argues that there is a tradeoff between privacy/fungibility and auditability. It argues that BTC is private/fungible enough. I don't understand why you use this article as "proof" of fungibility

@second_bailout Educate yourself 👇 theheldreport.com/p/bitcoin-priv…

Retarded boomer FUD. It’s perfectly fungible, there is no pricing differential between coins. If you privacy, use L2s or ETF.

@ZynxBTC Didn't they raise like 7m last week?

It's only been an hour and $STRC has already done $54 million in trading volume above $100. This works out to be ~$21 million in capital raised or roughly 310 Bitcoin. This will be a new record day for the product. Mind-blowing.

@BTCBruce1 链上黄金有counterparty而非bearer asset.

都说黄金实物不好携带，那 $XAUT 呢？ 数字黄金一出来 $BTC 的定位又是什么？ 谁想明白了这个问题

@camelfinance So in effect, they are saying that A LOW WILL FORM (whether within or without the window)? I think not, my guess is that those who claim 4y cycles are dead are claiming that NO LOW WILL FORM.

I’m seeing a lot of 4 year cycle deniers 70-80% of cycle lows fall inside of the expected window (depending on the asset class) Those saying no more 4 year cycle are actually saying the low will form outside the window. Which is to say they are betting on something with a maximum probability of 30% and with most major asset classes, that number is closer to 20%.

@jessezheng @alan97414 链上黄金跟比特币不是一个东西。一个有counterparty risk 另一个没有。链上黄金随时被锁

@alan97414 可以找传统大行，比如新加坡三大行UOB，还是有保障的。 代币化黄金刚刚开始，大家接受的少，但相信会有越来越多人认可，这也是比较快的。

以前我也觉得黄金在战争时期不好搬，直到我自己去UOB买了一百克黄金（12万人民币左右）我觉得说出这话的人可能压根就没有过实物黄金。 可以看图，这收据就一张A4纸大小。大多数人能有的流动储蓄，几块金条直接放裤兜，或者放个盒子就够了🤣 比特币数字黄金只是币圈人一厢情愿的意淫。

@endurancetest @ZynxBTC Tell me about gold

@ZynxBTC No one talks about projects where btc actually makes a difference. It’s all cartoon finance # go up. This only ends badly

Our job is to make sure Saylor's next 1 million Bitcoin is a lot harder to accumulate than the first. So far Strategy have paid $54.5 billion for 717,722 Bitcoin. This is 3.4% of the entire supply of the next Global Reserve Asset. Far too cheap and easy for $MSTR to be honest.