Kevin Cole

2026 NFL Offseason Improvement Index is up and running @Unexpected_Pts Compares end-of-season roster point-differential projections to those reflecting offseason changes, including draft capital effects. It doesn't project this well *every* offseason, but 2025 results were solid: Top-3: Patriots, Bears & Panthers Bottom-3: Chiefs, Jets, Eagles

@Unexpected_Pts Daily update to the @Unexpected_Pts 2026 NFL Improvement Index. Jets still on top, Titans closing in, as both teams have a lot of cap space to spend in free agency. Up to 107 total transactions logged into the model

Why are the Colts so low? Looking thin, as of now, at offensive tackle and a few other positions. Big signings like Daniel Jones and Alec Pierce are viewed as lateral moves, not changes from end-of-season roster to now All the player-level details are available in my write-up: unexpectedpoints.com/p/2026-nfl-off…

2026 NFL Offseason Improvement Index is up and running @Unexpected_Pts Compares end-of-season roster point-differential projections to those reflecting offseason changes, including draft capital effects. It doesn't project this well *every* offseason, but 2025 results were solid: Top-3: Patriots, Bears & Panthers Bottom-3: Chiefs, Jets, Eagles

@realjweiner @Unexpected_Pts Updated. Thanks!

@KevinCole___ @Unexpected_Pts FYI, Calvin Austin went to the Giants

@jessenewell @Unexpected_Pts Update moved the Chiefs down a few slots

@KevinCole___ @Unexpected_Pts Just an FYI- Nick Cross went to Commanders, not Chiefs. Thinking KC will be almost at the bottom after that correction.

@jessenewell @Unexpected_Pts Will update. Thanks!

@Unexpected_Pts All the details on the @Unexpected_Pts 2026 NFL Improvement Index, with player-level breakdowns of value here unexpectedpoints.com/p/2026-nfl-off…

Important note that the Improvement Index views re-signing players as a lateral move with no effect. The Index is a comparison of two 2026 team-level projections: 1) Using the year-end 2025 roster 2) Using the updated roster for 2026 offseason moves The fact that Daniel Jones and Alec Pierce could produce a lot more value this season, but that isn't part of the equation

@Pullthepocket @Unexpected_Pts Haha. The gain would be even bigger if you could project Kyler for close to a full season. He's missed so much time recently that the model still has a decent amount of McCarthy snaps in there

@KevinCole___ @Unexpected_Pts "Let's just say the projection on J.J. McCarthy wasn't great" lol

@MillerTimeSport @Unexpected_Pts Though to pinpoint exactly with all the secondary and tertiary effects of each move, but looking thin at offensive tackle.

@KevinCole___ @Unexpected_Pts Who is hurting the Colts so much?

@KevinCole___ @CodySuek @Unexpected_Pts Hang the banner!!