Khalid Heba
1.4K posts
Khalid Heba
@KhalidHeba1
Derivatives Trader/Short Vol/Positive Theta Decay. Here to teach and learn. Never advice just opinions and trades
Katılım Haziran 2018
468 Takip Edilen96 Takipçiler
@WarrenPies @VKMacro Remain long the AI trade with the oil hedge?
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@VKMacro I think everyone did. We all have our models for demand elasticity…managed dd circumvents the price signal process…gives the market more time but doesn’t change the destination if we stay closed
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@SantiagoAuFund @ggreenwald @ScubertDubert70 @GoRavens1008 Wtf are you serious Brent? You amplified an obviously false claim. That’s the issue. Turning it into an IRGC comparison is just a strawman to avoid addressing that fact.
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@ggreenwald @ScubertDubert70 @GoRavens1008 Do you believe the same of the IRGC, Hezzbollah and Hamas? And even if you believe the claims “ought to be true”…you should know better than to think they are.
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Imagine turning the release of these women into a negative Trump post. I mean…Jesus. 🤦♂️
Is Trump crazy? Yes. Does he contradict himself? Yes. Does he often shoot himself in the foot? Yes. But is the release of these women a good thing? YES
Murtaza Hussain@MazMHussain
Trump seems to be inventing fake concessions given to him by the Iranians to make it appear that he is building leverage and goodwill for the negotiations that he is still trying to engineer. Whatever the outcome this is very low IQ and mentally-ill behavior which should be considered intolerable for the leader of what is considered to be the most important country in the world:
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SPX at 6666 innit
JH@CRUDEOIL231
I feel like the oil market has already crossed the point of no return, regardless of how this war plays out. At first this wave just swallowed up everything East of Suez. We saw force majeures popping up all over Asia and premiums going through the roof. But now the Atlantic wall has officially crumbled. Only oil nerds like us are checking this stuff lately, but seriously—just look at the North Sea Platts window and the USGC diffs. This is nowhere near normal. I know some ppl are getting all hyped up every time a single Handy tanker or LPG carrier squeaks through Hormuz, even claiming there’s a secret fleet of tankers slipping through. I highly doubt it. If supply was actually fine, Atlantic physical diffs wouldn't be screaming like this. These numbers only happen when you're hitting a massive supply shock. Like some of smart guys have noted, once you pass a certain threshold, it doesn't even matter if Hormuz reopens—the logistical bottlenecks will make it impossible to absorb the shock anytime soon. I’m pretty sure we’ve already crossed that line. #oott #iran
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@pati_marins64 What probability would you assign on them disrupting via Bab el mandeb
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I see the Houthis as still aligned with Iran, but much more focused on their own reconstruction and on a path of avoiding further conflicts.
They haven't continued the attacks on Israel and are honoring the agreement with the Saudis, provided there is no further involvement on their part against Iran.
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I just realized… hit 5,118.02% returns last week.
5000%+ not too bad in <2 years?
Hard to keep up with $5 footlong sandwich inflation even after front running:
-> $MSTR for halving
-> $RKLB and $HOOD for space/fintech rally
-> $GOOGL and $TSM for large cap rally
-> Samsung, SK Hynix, Asian equities for memory
-> $LITE, $AXTI, and $COHR for EML/photonics
-> $SOI, $SIVE, $AEHR, $TSEM, Win for CW/SiPH/CPO.
Some side quests here and there with Venezuelan natural resource companies and drones (that didn’t turn out as well).
But generally market read has been decent so far on what’s coming next.
And I do think scale up photonics is next, especially focusing on CW laser companies, substrates, testing and foundries.
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
Modest +1,124.09% return over the past year. Anon, only a few years left to escape the permanent underclass due to AI? OpenAI raising $122B is enough to fuel the rally for another 2 years. And new supercycles from photonics < $SIVE to $AAOI >, testing with $AEHR, $NBIS DCs, and advanced packing from $AMKR to $POET. Is just getting started.
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What an awful take — NATO expansion wasn’t hypothetical, it was active. Victoria Nuland was literally on tape handpicking Ukraine’s post-coup government in 2014. That’s not paranoia, that’s documented interference on Russia’s doorstep.
Meanwhile Iran hadn’t invaded anyone in 200+ years, was in full JCPOA compliance — verified by the US — until we unilaterally killed the deal. The ‘Iranian threat’ was neocon fiction.
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Apparently Putin was justified in invading Ukraine bc of something “NATO might some day do” even though NATO never threatened to do it…
But the U.S. was not justified in invading Iran bc of something “they might some day do” even though they had specifically threatened to do it.
You don’t have to like war or support this current war to see the hypocrisy above.
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@SantiagoAuFund Why don’t you just be direct and actionable for once Brent?
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This is not in reference to ships arriving in the Strait of Hormuz. This is in reference to the ones that left a month ago…
Santiago Capital@SantiagoAuFund
The last ships arrive this weekend. Then a lot of hard forgotten truths get relearned.
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@tleilax___ Depends on the probability assigned that the ROW can resolve it with Iran relatively quickly.
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Again, this is not good news for the oil market.
First Squawk@FirstSquawk
TRUMP SAYS U.S. DOES NOT REQUIRE A DEAL WITH IRAN IN ORDER TO WITHDRAW
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@SantiagoAuFund @GestaltU Straw man. He’s obviously calling for international order and accountability. Don’t be disingenuous Brent.
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@GestaltU Would you like Trump as the head of this One World Government?
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I see March 2022 circulating around
Le Shrub🌳@agnostoxxx
At which point do we start calling this World War 3? 🥺
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@prettygirl7924 @hammeringhankk Lolololol $67 million on Illini
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Illinois opens up as a 2.5 point favorite.
This line is WAY off😂
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@LynAldenContact Curious if you think this translates into an actionable trade
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My job is to entertain you most of the time, occasionally quell sensationalist headlines, and so forth.
You know, the normal stuff.
But each day the Strait of Hormuz remains closed is a growing global catastrophe that people are sleepwalking into.
That’s the signal.
GIF
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@iv_technicals Seems like destroying energy infrastructure and creating chaos is more of the goal rather than the byproduct
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The more this goes on, the more you question the real reason behind Trump's initial motives
The Spectator Index@spectatorindex
Senior Iranian official tells CNN that Tehran will 'determine when the war ends' and 'we will not stop defending until we teach Trump and Netanyahu a historic lesson'
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Why don’t you add a little nuance. The deep state apparatus has wanted this for decades yes. IE the famous Wesley Clark Memo. That is not the same thing as saying the current leadership in the administration was well prepared and informed on how this would all play out. Hence the considerable amount of dissent going on within the admin.
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For those who think the U.S. does not have a plan with regards to Iran, pls answer this one question:
If the U.S. has no plan, then why did Iran spend the last 40 years preparing to counter the U.S.'s plan...?
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@SantiagoAuFund Would this war be happening without the Israeli lobby? Yes or no.
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For those who think the US involvement in Iran is being driven by a minority elite who benefit from the current conflict while the larger American populace suffers...how exactly would you classify the Theocracy and IRGC in Iran...as it compares to the larger Iranian populace?
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How to win in 2026… simply assume US policy makers will continue operating on full retard mode, and bet accordingly
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Stocks down
Gold up
2y yield down
Moving from the "inflation concern" phase of the crisis into recession concern phase.
Warren Pies@WarrenPies
Reminder…gold also waiting for signs that more easing is on deck…might move before rates
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