Kn1era.hl
943 posts
I wont make any friends for this one, but strongly advise as a rule:
keep other men's names out of ur mouth unless u are their equal in stature.
whether an ackman or a chamath...until u are running $20B, dining with POTUS, or taking equity stakes in pro sports teams...simply aint ur place my brotha, nor is it mine, to be chirping about their biz.
its not a caste system, but there's levels of respect, stations of varying height.
nothing worse than a guy who cant stay in his lane or play his position
how u respond to this info reveals who u are
winning attitude: "I'm gonna work harder so I can get on their level."
no offense taken. humble, knows his role, knows he can and will get to where they're at thru sheer force of personality & quantum of willpower.
losing attitude: "I'm gonna chop them down on twitter all day to make myself feel better"
very offended. throws a shot at me first, then a series of disqualifiers ("they were born rich, they grifted to get there, they're lucky"), then a reason why he's not inferior ("I'd never even want to be them...they're immoral and I'm not.")
seen it 1000x, attitude is immutable. Its just as Irons said in Margin Call:
"the number of us grows... but the percentage of winners and losers, never changes and never will."
get in where u fit in, hermano. godspeed 🫡
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So, to recap, the sentiment on the TL is:
- DeFi is dead: don't bother with it, don't deposit anywhere, 'just use aave' is dead, off-ramp and at best park with ibkr or coinbase
- The age of crypto is over: we're no longer early, it's the instutitionals era, coins have infinite price-insensitive sellers, and retail isn't coming to buy your bags
- Onchain is dead, especially on solana, because of pvp tards that rush to outdump each other on 30k market caps. The only true runners are flukes on ethereum that are old and have no gen z to control its supply and is reliant on elon tweets.
- The handful of projects that were considered investment-worthy are either not (aave, for example) or are already adequately priced (hype, zec). there are a few silent runners like $morpho but not many and low volume.
- GameFi is dead. SocialFi is dead. L2s are barren. Financial activity only exists to farm points.
Did I miss anything? Is anyone excited about anything? Something?
If you're reading this - why are you still in crypto?
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hyperliquid legends, genuine question
all hl whales with big positions have zero open orders (see bottom right, some of biggest position wallets)
hiding to not get hunted? using execution layers like insilico?
or data bug? checked multiple sources, doesn't seem like it
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@Merridew__ @Tom62589172 for regular people in most European countries it is impossible, unless you regularly train in a shooting club
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@skewga_hyper Supply of oil and refineries definitely fucked for a bit, seems likely it will stay elevated for a while
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War is the main theme as such news like this get buried
Massive since aus is 4th largest pension fund system in the world.
Wu Blockchain@WuBlockchain
According to Bloomberg, Australia's $105B pension fund Hostplus is considering adding crypto investment options. CIO Sam Sicilia noted the fund is exploring offering $BTC and other digital assets to members via its Choiceplus product, which accounts for ~1% of its total assets and allows self-managed retirement portfolios.
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a week premature and no conviction because brent-wti collapsed even more before exploding
but clearly spending a cycle learning about oil was a lot more +EV than chasing basis
can't make the same mistake on natgas now
walter@ringwraith10
brent <> wti spread collapsed back to pre iran levels does this reflect a us local logistics shortage? my understanding is that brent would react more to the hormuz closure than wti not an oil trader tho so this might be naive hard to believe you can trade this onchain now
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Alright, y'all, looks like I'm eating crow on this one.
This post from @bxunit very much says it is truly exclusive.
"While this is the first product of its kind, it is also the only official S&P 500 perp product, meaning trade[XYZ] holds the exclusive license for an S&P 500 perp. Both sides recognized the importance of this and so we worked persistently to reach an agreement for exclusivity."
In this case, absolutely hats off to the team for securing the exclusivity.
x.com/bxunit/status/…
Corey Hoffstein 🏴☠️@choffstein
Kudos to trade[XYZ] for getting S&P to underwrite this – it speaks to the maturity and reputation of the Hyperliquid ecosystem. But seeing lots of folks saying they've secured exclusive rights. That's not what the tweet says. S&P pretty freely licenses to those who will pay.
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@poordart Why would they run an aluminum smelter in the desert
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Aluminum??
Not oil or gas or fertilizer are going to crash the world economy first ... but aluminum?
First Squawk@FirstSquawk
ALUMINIUM BAHRAIN, WHICH RUNS THE WORLD’S LARGEST SINGLE-SITE SMELTER OF THE METAL, HAS STARTED A PHASED PRODUCTION SHUTDOWN TO CONSERVE RAW-MATERIAL SUPPLIES
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Bam Adebayo broke math.
His 83-point game was 8.5 standard deviations above his career average (or ~1 in 53 quadrillion)
Based on career avgs, its like:
Patrick Mahomes passing for 915 yards
Justin Verlander throwing 214 pitches in a start
Wilt Chamberlain grabbing 79 rebounds
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At first glance, pressing the button seems like a great opportunity. Each press has a 50% chance to double your wealth and a 50% chance to halve it (EV = 1.25x). Mathematically, this implies infinite presses should lead to infinite wealth. It becomes an infinite random walk where every positive outcome occurs with certainty. Awesome. In theory.
However, a game can offer a seemingly generous +25% average return on each press, yet most participants can still lose money because of the nature of multiplicative betting. The mean (average) wealth can explode to extremely large amounts with the median (the wealth of the typical participant) and the majority of players losing money.
In this game, wealth compounds multiplicatively, not additively. The average outcome is wildly profitable. The typical outcome is stagnation or loss. The majority of players go to zero, on a series of highly +EV trades. The problem is in how much you bet each time. Position sizing transforms this risky gamble into a sustainable strategy. Let's say you do 50% instead of 100%. It instantly becomes a great strategy.
In any high-volatility, positive-EV scenario, the path to long-term profitability for the majority is careful position sizing. Survival is a prerequisite for realizing your edge. “Just survive” is not simply feel-good advice but actually useful.
Aporia@0xaporia
If you could press a button that has a 50/50 chance of doubling your net worth or halving it. How many times would you press it? (put your reasoning in comments pls)
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Interesting to see that more than 3 out of 4 got this question wrong. Below I'll explain why conditioning on high Z makes X and Y negatively correlated (even if they’re independent).
Imagine Z as a total score made by combining two independent parts, X and Y (for example Z = X + Y), or more generally "Z increases when either X or Y increases". In the full population, X and Y don’t relate at all.
Now suppose we only look at the people with extremely high Z. To make it into this group, you need a large total. That creates a tradeoff:
- If someone has an unusually high X, they can still have a somewhat lower Y and remain in the extremely high Z group.
- If someone has a lower X, they must make up for it with a higher Y to keep Z extremely high.
So within the selected high Z subset, high X tends to come with low Y, and low X tends to come with high Y, giving us a negative correlation.
otw2@imotw2
Variables X and Y are completely independent in the general population. Variable Z is entirely caused by both X and Y. If you restrict your analysis to only include observations where Z is extremely high, the correlation between X and Y in this specific subset will be:
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