Kyle Czapski
612 posts
Kyle Czapski
@KyleCzapski
Firefighter/Real Estate Investor/Renovator/Options Trader
Barrie, on Katılım Nisan 2012
399 Takip Edilen175 Takipçiler
Introducing Lauren Hayes, our Semi Conductor, Memory and AI hardware Senior analyst.
In her first video she breaks down the full AI value chain and where we see the highest-conviction opportunities heading into Q2 earnings.
The AI cycle is not slowing. It is broadening.
From memory to power infrastructure to custom silicon, the companies building this ecosystem are signing multi-year contracts, raising capital spending, and telling you supply cannot meet demand through the end of the decade.
Four minutes. Data-driven. No opinions without evidence.
This is Alphatica. We track the data.
$MU $SOXX $NVDA
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@alphaticaio It is wild to see big tech companies crush earnings and then pull 5-10%.
Seems like a coin toss although betting earnings has never been anything but a gamble.
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Here is the number nobody is talking about heading into Q2 earnings.
Bottom-up S&P 500 EPS estimates went UP 3.4% during the quarter.
For context, the 5-year average is a 2.0% decline. The 10-year average is a 2.7% decline. The 20-year average is a 4.2% decline.
Analysts normally cut estimates into a quarter. This time they raised them into the print.
Samsung just reported a 19-fold increase in operating profit and fell 7% because the beat was not big enough.
The bar is not just high. The Street spent three months raising it.
$SPY $QQQ $IWM
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🚨🚨FALLING WEDGE CONFIRMED.🎆🎆
97% historical success rate. $789 target. Detected June 25. Confirmed July 10. Fifteen trading days.
Avg Max Gain: +8.72%,
Avg Drawdown: -5.78%,
Avg Days to Max: 40.5.
On June 25, SPY closed at $734.30. The structure was -$1.56B negative. The engine had reversed five times in four days. Zero magnets existed. $165B of forced pension selling was crushing every rally. The $716 flash crash was hours away. Fintwit was calling for a collapse.
We published the pattern that day. 97% success rate. 34 prior patterns. Target $789. The data was clear. The noise was louder.
Over the next fifteen days:
The rebalancing ended. The structure rebuilt from -$1.56B to +$1.63B. The engine went from reversing every 12 hours to holding positive for 12 consecutive sessions. The correlations held green through every shock. Iran headlines came and went. A NATO confrontation came and went. A flash crash came and went. The data held.
Three approaches. $0.41 short. $0.75 short. $0.08 short. Each one closer. Each one with stronger structure underneath. The fourth approach confirmed.
In February and March, this feed called 7462 on the SPX while fintwit was in shambles. The data was right. The noise was wrong.
Today we are here again. The falling wedge that we tracked for fifteen days through the worst structural conditions of the cycle just confirmed with every metric at all-time highs. The shock absorber at +$1.63B. The engine at +117M. The largest magnet ever recorded at +$567M. IV at cycle lows. Call premium at 80%.
The data doesn't care about headlines. It doesn't care about panic. It doesn't care about tweets. It measures the structure, the flow, and the probabilities. The probabilities said 97%. The market confirmed.
$789 is the target. The structure supports the path. The magnets pull from $755 to $760 to $800. The engine is at maximum power. The floor is at $747.
We published every session. Every level. Every pattern. Every recovery condition. Before the move. On the record. That's the standard. That's the product.
The noise is free. The signal is in the data. We publish the signal.
$SPY $QQQ $IWM
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@alphaticaio I honestly screenshot all your posts now. Gold my man! 🔥
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@KyleCzapski We are going to dumb some of the information down so everyone understands. We are working on it. Thanks and welcome. $SPY
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🚨🚨Educational Post:
This is very important:
The flip sits at 7,489, 55 points below. The cushion rebuilt from 36 points yesterday to 55 today. The regime boundary is separating from spot which is the signature pattern that precedes sustained legs higher.
What does this mean?
Besides a sustained rally to $SPY $789 think of the flip like the edge of a cliff. Spot is where you're standing. The distance between you and the edge is the cushion.
Yesterday you were standing 36 steps from the edge. Today you're 55 steps away. The cliff didn't move much, you walked further inland.
When the edge keeps getting further away, it means the ground under you is getting more stable. You can take bigger steps without worrying about falling off. That's what "separating from spot" means. The danger zone is moving further from where you are.
Every time in the series that the flip pulled away from spot steadily over multiple sessions, the market made a sustained move higher. When the flip sat right next to spot (3-8 points during the oscillation), every small move risked falling off the edge. Now there's room.
$SPY $QQQ $IWM
Alphatica@alphaticaio
SPX GEX LEVELS: Jul 10 (Weekly OPEX) Twenty-four hours after absorbing 4-5x larger Iran strikes with a 21-point drawdown, the structure tripled. Net GEX surged from +$257M to +$844M in a single session. The largest single-session rebuild since the series began. The blanket is now 77% of the way to the $1.1B average that defined the May suppression regime. One more session like today crosses the threshold. Every metric set a new series record. ATM IV hit 13.2%. The sixth time the series low has been broken since the oscillation ended. The vol premium that peaked at 19.5% during the June crisis is fully unwound with interest. The market is pricing less uncertainty than at any point in the 75-session history of this series. Vol P/C dropped to 1.28. The lowest reading ever. The oscillation regime ran at 1.45-1.65. The crisis peaked at 1.69. At 1.28, institutions are buying calls at a pace that exceeds even the May rally. The hedging behavior that defined June is not just absent, it reversed. Flip levels collapsed to 5. From 51 during the Warsh selloff. From 33-43 during the crisis. From 11-17 during the pre-crisis rally. Five is cleaner than anything the series has produced. One flip cluster at 7,489 and two distant ones at 6,910 and 8,000. The fragmentation is resolved. All ten top volume strikes were call buying. Not nine of ten. All ten. The first time in the series. 7,550 absorbed +$114M. 7,600 at +$79M. 7,575 at +$57M. 7,560 at +$53M. 7,540 at +$39M. 7,590 at +$38M. 7,545 at +$36M. 7,580 at +$35M. 7,555 at +$34M. 7,570 at +$34M. Ten strikes. Ten calls. Zero puts. The institutional conviction is unanimous. Spot closed at 7,544, directly on the max magnet at 7,550 (+$107M). The magnet migration that carried the rally from 7,200 to 7,600 in the spring is fully re-engaged: 7,400 pulled to 7,500, 7,500 pulled to 7,550, 7,550 now pulls to 7,600 (+$146M). The COG at 7,608 confirms the direction. The magnet corridor from 7,550 to 7,700 carries $719M: 7,550 (+$181M), 7,575 (+$106M), 7,600 (+$146M), 7,625 (+$96M), 7,650 (+$98M), 7,700 (+$75M). The densest corridor the series has ever produced. There is no resistance between spot and 7,700, every strike is a magnet. The flip sits at 7,489, 55 points below. The cushion rebuilt from 36 points yesterday to 55 today. The regime boundary is separating from spot which is the signature pattern that precedes sustained legs higher. Tomorrow is weekly OPEX. The tenth consecutive weekly drain. The structure enters at +$844M, the strongest pre-OPEX reading in the series. The drain strips near-dated gamma but the magnets above are on longer-dated expirations. The pattern from every OPEX since May: the drain thins the blanket, the magnets survive, the magnet migration continues into the following week. The Iran absorption is complete. Tuesday's strikes produced -21 points at +$431M. Wednesday held. Thursday tripled the blanket. The three-session sequence proves the framework: positive gamma absorbed the headline, the structure stabilized, and the call buying that was paused by the overnight news resumed without missing a beat. Same headline that caused -119 points and -$618M in June produced -21 points and +$844M in July. Tomorrow's expected range: 7,500 – 7,600. The blanket at +$844M compresses. The 7,550 magnet at +$107M pins. OPEX drains near-dated gamma. The flip at 7,489 provides 55 points of cushion. The tightest range since the pre-AVGO suppression regime because the blanket is doing what it did in May: absorbing everything. Structural floor: 7,489 (-0.7%) near / 6,910 (-8.4%) deep. solana:J3NKxxXZcnNiMjKw9hYb2K4LUxgwB6t1FtPtQVsv3KFr $SPY $QQQ
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Kyle Czapski retweetledi
Dark pool alert. Pre-market. 9:06 AM.
| 09:06:32 MU BUY $49,998,763 NASDAQ Car │ │ 09:06:32 META BUY $10,732,022 NASDAQ Car │ │ 09:06:32 MU BUY $49,996,886 NASDAQ Car │ │ 09:06:32 MU BUY $49,998,763 NASDAQ Car │ │ 09:06:32 MU BUY $49,997,825 NASDAQ Car │
Four $MU prints. Same second. Same venue. $50M each. The Block Brigade is back.
$MU BUY $50.0M
$MU BUY $50.0M
$MU BUY $50.0M
$MU BUY $50.0M
$META BUY $10.7M
$200M in $MU dark pool buys. One second. NASDAQ Carteret. Four prints at exactly $50M. One institution splitting a $200M order into $50M chunks.
Yesterday $MU was the most contested name on the board. 3,433 blocks. $1.94B buy vs $1.84B sell. Barely positive at +$100M after three sessions of selling. Now pre-market: $200M dark pool buy in one second.
Watching the tape.
$MU $META $QQQ
Indonesia
Team caught 0dte $TSLA Holy Grail setup today on @blademapai , should I do an in depth breakdown on how we spotted it? I’ve never discussed this setup publicly on X but it is the highest winrate setup in trading existence. A new way to trade, researched by our team and backtested through AI. LMK
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@jtsla4 @blademapai Haters will always hate lol. I went down 5% quick back to Green already. Never had a doubt. Especially for a swing. It's been 1300 😂
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Lmfao $MU went under my entry for a couple mins and y’all bitch asses tried getting smart with me immediately. Now I have even more confidence the bottom is in. I don’t fucking doubt @blademapai
Nolan Premack@npre_02
@jtsla4 Where’s J at now? 🤣
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@DMT_Doctor 99% of the portfolio on 15 second chart. Boss level or disabled? 😂
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You trade the one-minute chart. I trade the hourly. We are not the same. #TradingTips
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@astocks92 I can't remember so sorry for the ignorance if it's the case. Do you have a paid website/education component or just YT?
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More of these posts 👇
Do they help intraday?
Prediction = delivery = boring.
Homework 📄 and delivered.
The Architect@astocks92
Mobile ℹ️ read: mind the typos (in car)~ If nothing changes: $SPX: Burn $7500 🩳, 7515. let $7520 calls + burn out Ideally near $7512-7506 at EOD $QQQ: Burn upside calls (slow) > $743. Burn shorts out at $742. Closer to $742 at EOD, better $SPY: Burn $745 🩳 to 0. All calls >$749/750 so all “1 sided”, Map can change. Not watching today. Read it as a 📕. 💡 if nothing major changes Just an idea.
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@DegenSensei @CredibleCrypto Biggest kesson learned this year and it's paid 10 fold.
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The problem with being too consumed by the timeline is that the most popular accounts here farm engagement by telling you that the "chart looks good" after 20-30% green candles that satisfy your dopamine and cause you to chase
Instead, in order to catch "bottoms", you need to be comfortable buying with the price potentially going lower instead of doomposting
Choose your fighter
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@ripster47 Is that a 10 min timeframe? I swear I don't have the right indicator or it's different.
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$NBIS and $MU both double now. Do we want the new list for June or are we not ready to handle an absolute nuke of free alpha?
j@jtsla4
Institutions loaded up on $AMD $GOOGL $INTC all of April and I told you all early, before the run So far for May it will be $NVDA $NBIS and $MU These 3 stocks should run next month, keep your focus on them and look for opportunities to long them.
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So paid on this. Told y’all institutions were buying in $ORCL at $197, told yall it was going to $250. You need a system to follow and that’s what @blademapai is
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$161.94 achieved 🎯. Who else is giving you these exact precise levels? We are going to be so fucking paid tomorrow @DMT_Doctor @blademapai
j@jtsla4
Alright this is the last setup I post before I go. Institutions buying $PLTR calls one week out, here’s what you need watch “UTL $161.94” I already know all @blademapai spots are going to sell out in 20 seconds tomorrow like it did last time, I wish everyone the goodluck. 🤝
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To piggy back off a tweet from last weekend but to delve into the psychology and thought process side to answer a question I got -
If any of your current self talk or inner thoughts look like this:
“I can’t believe I missed that move”
“I’m under performing”
“I fucked up”
“I need to size heavier next time to try and make up for my underperformance”
Dwelling on losing X amount of dollars
Dwelling on selling for a loss to watch it go without you
Dwelling on not selling the exact top when you still did well
You are not alone, your issues are not unique in a way that something is wrong with you, and it’s easy to feel this way in current environment
STOP and take a breath
The market will still be here tomorrow and the next week and the week after that, opportunities are abundant
Focus on ABUNDANCE in your life, not lack of
The LAST thing you need to do is size up
You need to do the opposite size DOWN
Buy 2 affordable contracts max to where the P&L moving makes you feel as close to nothing as possible, this gives you the ability to scale, give cushion, and let one contract work to prove to you to trust yourself and your analysis
Focus on your “why”, refine your process, move in a way that reflects a logical thought out idea, not on a monetary or percentage based outcome you are chasing from emotion
You need to build confidence in not only yourself but a system. This is why I try so hard to teach and educate because unless you blindly trust someone chasing others alerts will not lead you to a sustainable path
If you buy a push higher intra day with no confidence on the higher time frames or why you’re taking that trade. That move 9/10 times is going to retrace and put you in draw down. A lack of process will let you be shaken out only to watch it move higher
Stocks do not move in a straight line all the time, retracements are normal. You will not make sound logical decisions when you are operating on the emotion that your P&L is making you feel
You are human, you will trip now and then and mess up, progress is rarely linear in any endeavor
Take a step back, you can do this, but you have to walk before you can run. Believe in yourself and put the work in 🫶
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