Leading Edge Investing

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Leading Edge Investing

Leading Edge Investing

@LeadingEdgeTLE

I seek to invest in companies that are pioneers in their fields. I share my ideas, because I value your feedback. I do not sell, nor give investment advice.

Katılım Ocak 2025
74 Takip Edilen40 Takipçiler
Sweet Nector
Sweet Nector@sweet_nector1·
People keep guessing, but no one gets it right. Do you know what this is?
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Leading Edge Investing
Leading Edge Investing@LeadingEdgeTLE·
@TKL_Adam @KobeissiLetter WTI prices still peg the price you pay in the US for oil, both domestic and import. And WTI is also trading upwards of $93 a barrel. So no, the US is not ‘shielded’
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Adam Kobeissi
Adam Kobeissi@TKL_Adam·
The US is ironically relatively "shielded" from rising oil prices abroad. Crude oil prices in Oman are trading at a +$70 premium to WTI crude, hitting record highs. Meanwhile, the US gets less than 8% of its oil from the Persian Gulf, at just 500,000 barrels per day. As a result, the US is actually seeing relatively *low* oil prices at home while foreign buyers are paying $150+/barrel in some cases. According to @KobeissiLetter, US oil companies are now set to make an additional $60+ billion this year if oil prices sustain current levels. US oil giants will realize record profits.
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter

Global oil markets are out of control: As the Iran War closes week 3, US oil prices are trading at $97/barrel, up +76% since December. Meanwhile, physical oil prices in Oman are up to a RECORD $167/barrel, a +72% PREMIUM. What is happening? Let us explain. (a thread)

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Market Rebellion
Market Rebellion@RebellioMarket·
Rule of thumb for investment in fundamentally solid stocks: 1. If price drops 10%, just hold 2. If price drops 20%, add 10% 3. If price drops 30%, add 30% 4. If price drops 40%, add 30% 5. If price drops 50%, add 50% 6. If price goes up 10%, just hold 7. If price goes up 20%, still hold 8. If price goes up 30%, sell 10% 9. If price goes up 40%, sell 20% 10. If price goes up 50%, sell 30% 11. If price goes up 60%, sell 40% 12. If price goes up 100%, sell all
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The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter·
BREAKING: Kim Jong Un has won North Korea's parliamentary elections with 99.93% of the vote.
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Leading Edge Investing
Leading Edge Investing@LeadingEdgeTLE·
@Tekeee And when it goes back up to $126k again, you now register profit for the paper loss that you converted to real loss
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Tekee
Tekee@Tekeee·
If you purchase Bitcoin at $126,000 and it drops to $68,000 you can sell it and buy it back 5 seconds later you still have the same one Bitcoin But you can realize a capital loss of $58,000 for tax purposes
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Evan | Investments
Evan | Investments@NotA_Bull·
You have to put your entire portfolio into one: $NVDA, $AAPL, or $MSFT. You can’t trade for 3 years. Which one is the safest bet for growth?
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Martin A. Armstrong
Martin A. Armstrong@ArmstrongEcon·
There is absolutely NO EVIDENCE that CO2 changes the climate. The ice core sample demonstrates that there have been periods of significantly higher levels of CO2 before civilization. There is a natural cycle of everything.
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Vivek Sen
Vivek Sen@Vivek4real_·
🇺🇸 ERIC TRUMP: “YOU COULD SEND ME A MILLION DOLLARS IN BITCOIN RN AND IT’D HIT MY WALLET IN 3 SECONDS” “AND YOU PRACTICALLY PAY ZERO FEES.” “TELL ME EVERY FINANCIAL INSTITUTION IN THE WORLD ISN’T PISSED OFF ABOUT THAT.”
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Cole Grinde
Cole Grinde@GrindeOptions·
If $TSLA is going to be a $2,600/share stock one day, why aren’t you buying more at $390? 🤔
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Leading Edge Investing
Leading Edge Investing@LeadingEdgeTLE·
@QualityInvest5 This analysis would be much more useful if you include the tax implications of your portfolio shift. A 15% Capital Gains tax on long term holding vs a 35% federal tax on short term holding sale is a major factor
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Aria Radnia 🇮🇷
Aria Radnia 🇮🇷@QualityInvest5·
So it's been about 4 months since I sold $GOOGL to buy $ADBE and got cussed out by all of FinTwit for it Couple observations: I was completely right in selling $GOOGL at 40x real earnings (ex investment gains). The stock is roughly flat and I suspect won't be that good of a performer in the call it next handful of quarters (this is just a hunch as the valuation resets with Mag7 peers, not some crazy voodoo TA or anything) On the $ADBE side, I'm perfectly happy to admit that I built the position to hastily. I still believe $ADBE at $335 average will outperform $GOOGL at my average sell price of $295 But a lesson for the future: Slower trims and even slower DCAs into new positions. Especially those that seem to just be in a long term downtrend like $ADBE ––> you likely have more time than you think to accumulate, no rush to buy the full thing right away
Aria Radnia 🇮🇷 tweet media
Aria Radnia 🇮🇷@QualityInvest5

Portfolio Update | Nov 6, 2025 Sold 26 shares of $GOOGL to fund a purchase in $ADBE at $329. Cost basis is now $335 and I own just under 60 shares of it Let's see what happens over the next 1-2 years. But I believe the AI risks SUPER overblown, and it will in fact be a tailwind for Adobe in pretty sure order. The market needs to realize Adobe is a professional / enterprise business with 90%+ revenues coming from people (or employees) who can't live without it Competition is also largely irrelevant because Adobe benefits from network effects, is the standard and at the end of the day the most comprehensive tool for most designers Another thing, since the business is mostly professionals, Pepsi for example, will not be generating AI images and posting them as their Super Bowl commercial ––> and if they do use anything AI-generated, they will likely generate it on top of footage they already recorded. Eg: an AI puddle to a video of a cat walking I believe in due time, sentiment will change, and it will become apparent that Adobe was an AI winner due to the sheer amount of distribution they had this whole time. At this time, I do not have any plans to trim anything more to fund the purchases of Adobe. But I am HYPER bullish on the stock. PS: The $FI LEAPs are not included in this image, but theyre worth about 0.7% of the portfolio. Cheers, and happy investing

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Documenting Saylor
Documenting Saylor@saylordocs·
I bought my home in March 2023. The price was $495,000, which was 22.5 BTC. Today, the value is $560,000, which is ~6.2 BTC. In a little under two years, my home’s value is up 13% in dollars. But it has lost ~72% of its value in Bitcoin. Real estate is collapsing in front of us
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Leading Edge Investing
Leading Edge Investing@LeadingEdgeTLE·
@ecommerceshares why would you want to exclude Informatica? If it contributes to revenue, then it should be included in the modelling.
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Leading Edge Investing
Leading Edge Investing@LeadingEdgeTLE·
@DrewCohenMoney We can debate SBC until the cows come home. Bottom line is it is an expense that can be turned off if needed. But unearned revenue? That is totally sustainable for subscription services companies. They have charged for a service that they have not yet delivered.
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Drew Cohen
Drew Cohen@DrewCohenMoney·
Wait... $CRM trades at 12x free cash flow? But then you back out SBC and its 16x. And then you might want to back out unearned revenues as a source of cash flow (since it isn't a sustainable source) and you are at 21x. And then growth deceled to 7% ex-Informatica acq...
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Riley Drake
Riley Drake@RileyIsBuilding·
@johncrickett Anthropic's demo likely used clean legacy code. Production COBOL often has undocumented business rules embedded in decades of patches and workarounds that no AI can reverse engineer from syntax alone. It's impressive but it will take a lot of hand holding.
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John Crickett
John Crickett@johncrickett·
Anthropic dropped a blog post claiming AI can finally break the cost barrier to COBOL modernisation. The markets panicked and dumped IBM. I think that's a dumb move. Anthropic claims that understanding legacy code always cost more than rewriting it. Now AI flips that equation. I see two problems with this. First, IBM already has a tool that does this. It's called Watsonx Code Assistant for Z. Purpose-built to modernise mainframe applications faster, with lower risk and lower cost. Second, "No one ever got fired for buying IBM." That old saying explains why banks still run on COBOL. They don't buy the newest and the best. They buy the lowest risk. And the lowest risk is leaving the estimated 800 billion lines of COBOL code in daily production use well alone. Rewrites fail far too often.
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Shay Boloor
Shay Boloor@StockSavvyShay·
$IBM down over 10% after Anthropic launches an AI tool that converts old COBOL code to modern languages. AI code translation directly competes with IBM's legacy modernization consulting.
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Leading Edge Investing
Leading Edge Investing@LeadingEdgeTLE·
@Orlandopirate01 @StockSavvyShay Nonsense. IBM has been promoting COBOL migration for years and even has its own generative AI tools to support this. Watsonx Code Assistant. Now maybe that component is disrupted, but you still need the HW to run your new application on, which is what IBM is trying to push.
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Adex_crypt
Adex_crypt@Orlandopirate01·
@StockSavvyShay Anthropic’s tool pressures IBM’s legacy consulting model, but enterprise trust, scale, and long-term contracts still give IBM strategic resilience.
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Stephan Ferraro
Stephan Ferraro@StephanFerraro·
@StockSavvyShay As someone who's built COBOL migration tools — this was inevitable. The dirty secret: most COBOL modernization projects fail not because of technical complexity, but because of institutional fear. AI removes the fear factor by making iterations cheap and reversible.
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