Lee Root

@ColinTCrypto It's not a bear market; it was merely a bearish correction within a long term bull market. We're going parabolic soon

To put it in perspective: The Feb 5th low ($60k) would be only 4 months into the bear market, which would be *extremely* premature for a cycle bottom. Top-to-bottom they typically last 12 months. Maybe we can get a briefer bear market this time, but 8 months shorter? Doubtful imo. Good to keep a zoomed-out perspective. $BTC

@RonSwanonson They were about 2.5% of btc volume today. That doesn’t move markets much, but when they double to 5% of daily volume, their otc buys will absolutely move the mkt.

Engagement accounts talking about how the Bitcoin price “isn’t moving” while $MSTR is buying so much are basically saying: “I have no clue how this works” Unfollow them if you care about understanding the Bitcoin market Strategy’s entire model is buying over-the-counter so that they can purchase at low prices for as long as possible The inevitability is that low price prices will not be around in the future so jacking them up prematurely would go against accumulating as much as possible while they still can

@Mgly1992 @saylor Simply to buy a btc-backed pension for retirement paying monthly tax free income and an 11.5% annual raise (provided you re-invest the dividends)

$STRC traded ~$297M today with 30-day volatility of ~4%.

@LukeMikic21 He's exceeding triple btc supply today. strc atm was ~42% of last week's trading volume. Therefore he's bought 1,452 btc with today's volume thus far which is 3.2X daily supply.

🚨 JUST IN: Michael Saylor's Strategy is on pace to buy over 1,000 Bitcoin TODAY ⚡ Miners produce roughly 450 Bitcoin per day. Saylor is buying over DOUBLE that. In a single day. How long before there's simply no Bitcoin left to buy? 👀

@BitPaine There ma be a one month period they add 100k btc. I’m hoping they’re in the process of adding 20k this week alone/

Prediction: there will be a three month period this year where $MSTR adds >100,000 $BTC.

@critterdude @ZynxBTC Even if it carries no premium forevermore, you accrue (a lot) more btc per share over time in mstr common. Whereas you lose 25 bps per year of btc in ibit.

The entire thesis for $MSTR is that they are betting on the CAGR of Bitcoin being higher than their cost of capital which is ~11%. They are executing a carry trade on Bitcoin. If you're bullish on Bitcoin, you should be bullish on Strategy. It really is that simple.

That's $2 billion in 2025 btc that they need to pay $200 million (10%) in equity atm to service forevermore which =$1.8 billion first year performance. 10 years from now that's ~$20 billion that they've collectively paid $2 billion to service for an $18 billion gain for common. All because saylor was atm'ing prefs for nothing way back in 2025. And that does not account for what the other $75 billion of btc they currently own is worth 10 years from now.

Impressive! 390 bitcoin a week from prefs would equate to about 3.2% btc/share yield annualized. That’s if you count it as pure and immediate “profit” for common share holders.

@AnalogKid70 @BitPaine @DavidKamnitzer The investment would be taxed as a long term capital gain or loss (depending on the outcome) with zero cost basis.

@LeeRoot8 @BitPaine @DavidKamnitzer What if you sell your shares in year 11 - after your cost basis has been reduced to zero?

If you have a paid off house, explain to me why you wouldn’t take out a mortgage on the full value of the house at 6%, park it in $STRC at 10.25% and capture a free 4.25% annually. On a $1M house that is $42,500 per year. Alternatively if you took out a $1,000,000 mortgage you could park $585,500 in $STRC to cover the monthly mortgage payment and buy 3.75 $BTC with the remainder.

@BitPaine @DavidKamnitzer Once your cost basis has been reduced to zero from dividends, every subsequent distribution is taxed as short term gains. Therefore this arb works on ~10 year paper or less given the 10.25% dividend.

@DavidKamnitzer Incorrect. Return of capital. Also mortgage interest is tax deductible which contributes to spread.

@dotkrueger mstr mnav will return to that range post supply crunch with a large scarcity premium assigned to it and any discussion of mnav valuation will be rear view mirror.

The idea that Bitcoin treasury companies should trade at mnavs of 3-10 was insane.

@TheBTCTherapist That it continuously launches then consolidates, launches even higher then consolidates. Looks to me like our current consolidation is getting long in the tooth

What do you notice about this chart?

broken in the sense that net of this short term sentiment correction, mstr is up 1122% (plus whatever one has paid themselves in options) to btc's 463% in just 2 years. I'd argue we needed to consolidate that outperformance in the short term before returning to our regularly scheduled program

@JoshMandell6 Looks like $MSTR has all the negative and no positives of a 2x Leveraged ETF. It has the negative of Leverage Decay, which would be fine on the up days, but on up days it struggles to even rise at 1x the percent rise of $BTC. $MSTR is Broken. $MTPLF take notes on what not to do

MSTR down 7.5% BTC down 2.5% This is all about MSTR imo. As mNAV weakens, it eventually pulls Bitcoin off its highs. Blame the short selling Twitter bots. Yeah, that's a good strategy.

And btc has nearly tripled since beginning the of 2022. 5x increase in stack with 3x increase in value of underlying btc is much different math. But that math overlooks dilution and better to state that market cap is up 26-fold since start of '22. I think we are very close to another break out, not further breakdown but just me.

@vincelindy At the beginning of 2022, Strategy owned 125,000 BTC. Since then the bitcoin hodlings have over 5x’d. MSTR was ~ $40. Price has over 8x’d since then.

On the left is MSTR stock price in 2021-2022 and on the right is MSTR stock price right now. What do you notice?

I'm increasingly bullish on mstr. BSE 5-year mnav/sentiment range is 1.59 to 3.96 and we're currently at 1.63. 1.59/oversold was jan '24 at $45/share and 10 months later it was up 10-fold and closed 11/20/24 overbought at $473 at 3.96 mnav. Now 9 months later and we're oversold once more at $347. Sentiment is screaming buy and even with 16.4% more shares, if you held from jan '24 through today from oversold to overbought back to oversold you'e up 771% and primed for next run to overbought.

I'm getting increasingly bearish on a lot of these Bitcoin Treasury Companies. If you're a CEO or Head of Bitcoin Strategy, you need to be making battle-plans on how to defend your mNAV. If it goes below 1, what are you going to do? Sitting and praying that the market is going to give you a mNAV premium is extremely worrying. That day may never come. Now, that's not to say we can't have tactical pauses, but unless you've built up that goodwill, you're going to need to have a back up plan. I'd be extremely cautious about the companies sitting below a 1 mNAV right now. We aren't even in a bear market yet. We've got companies that cost millions of dollars to run every year that aren't even profitable... what are they going to do? It's becoming increasingly evident to me that the winners are going to win big, but they will be few. Your risk increases exponentially beyond Strategy and Metaplanet, and then even more beyond Smarter Web and Capital B. Stay safe out there folks.

That would be exceedingly rare and to date has never happened and even then they only need raise ~$600 million a year. Less than 1 mnav matters not if that btc is worth double or triple the $6.2B '25 acquisition cost. I dismiss the mnav valuations because I'm looking long term post the supply crunch which arrives somewhere in the next 3 years. After which mstr enjoys the largest scarcity premium of any btc treasury because of the size of their horde. Mnav in that world will be exponentially higher than the 1.5-4x range mstr has traded within since BSE began.

Why can’t @Strategy sell Preferred’s ATM, particularly when ramped up, to pay dividends? Why does it have to be a binary choice of a spectrum for selling either $BTC treasury or $MSTR ATM to cover dividends. Seems like this would be a useful lever to pull! @JoshMandell6 @BitPaine

The preferred offerings permitted saylor to buy $6.3 billion of btc for the common to own forevermore. In exchange the common agrees to atm ~$600 million in proceeds per year. Saylor can atm the common equity and twap about 15% of one average trading day to pay an entire years dividends. It's immaterial now, just wait until $150, 200k, $500k btc.

A note to all the Microstrategy bag holders:

@chooserich No one rings a bell at the bottom, but this very close. peak fud = time to buy

These two crypto Ponzi schemes are about to collapse…

@TheBTCTherapist That it's up 3400% in 5 years.

What do you notice about this stock?

The long term money maker is btc dividend to the common without share dilution capturing the pivot from usd bonds to mstr btc bonds. That is slow drip now but will become a flood in years to come. The only way to win that future pivot is to grab as much btc right now as humanely possible, short term equity price be damned. I'm here for the long term

Even in this continuing bull market, with BTC making ATHs, long positions in MSTR can best be seen as a license to sell calls with impunity. Strategy's strategy seems to be to count on us to buy dips while they relentlessly sell the rips. They only way I can figure to make money out of this situation is to earn yield on the preferred shares and the short covered-call positions. We can survive this way during the move up to 444K on Bitcoin, even if they continue to flood the market with shares, but the bear market is going to wipe out the dip buyers. Fo Fo Fo - stay four steps ahead! In the ground, don't put your head. Remember to stay inside the boxing ring. And BPS is not a thing.