Daniel Fe

"There is no second best." 🍋 I’ve seen some $LMND OGs starting to divest from $LMND - and I think that’s a huge mistake, for the following reasons (NFA): 1. You can’t put everything into a model. $LMND is doing what no one else has ever done before. You can’t model the unknown unknowns. $LMND will benefit from the AI era like no other business can. We’ll see upsides that can’t be captured in a spreadsheet today - simply because we don’t even know them yet. 2. Risk/Reward. There’s no better R/R ratio in the market right now. $LMND’s success is starting to look inevitable. The “bear case” (with no upside surprises, no hype, no short squeeze) can actually be modeled quite well. Even if all the upside potential doesn’t fully materialize, the “bear” case alone presents already a compelling NPV. 3. Premium for performance. Investors will pay a premium the more upside surprises $LMND keeps delivering. The last two quarters may have just started that pattern. 4. Self-fulfilling prophecy. Once enough people believe $LMND could become the first global automated insurer - one that dominates - it can reach a market cap where that very belief helps make it happen, through potential capital raises at elevated valuations. 5. The illusion of cheaper stocks. Sure, there might be other “undervalued” names in the market that look cheaper on paper. But I still think they’ll underperform $LMND. Why? Because most of those businesses are undervalued for a reason - and flipping a narrative is hard. 6. Don’t forget the short ratio. $LMND is arguably the best story in the market right now - while still being one of the most shorted stocks. I’m not here for a short squeeze, but it could very well happen. @Neil_X10 posted before explaining why and how - and that possibility shouldn’t be dismissed. While I appreciate price targets and models for providing some orientation and a sense of “security,” I also know this: further upside is possible beyond the spreadsheet.

@anthonyisonline Just one more broken promise of Elon Musk

Solar roof has been a massive disappointment 😞

@DividendRising Schau dir mal $LMND an, wenn du Versicherungen verstehst - klassische Versicherer sind dabei disruptiert zu werden.

Ich bespare diesen ETF zweimal im Monat und kaum jemand kennt ihn. iShares STOXX Europe 600 Insurance ETF ISIN: DE000A0H08K7 Europäische Versicherer, gebündelt in einem ETF. Seit 2002 am Markt. Ich hab ihn nicht gekauft, weil er gerade gehypt wird. Ich hab ihn gekauft, weil ich verstehe, wie Versicherungen Geld verdienen und weil mir das gefällt. Versicherer nehmen Prämien ein, bevor sie überhaupt eine Leistung erbringen. Sie investieren dieses Geld in der Zwischenzeit. Steigen die Zinsen, steigen ihre Kapitalerträge. Steigen die Risiken, erhöhen sie einfach die Prämien. Das ist kein sexy Business. Aber es ist ein verdammt stabiles. Die größten Positionen im ETF: • Allianz (~19 %) • Münchner Rück • Zurich Insurance • AXA • Swiss Re • Generali Genau die Namen, über die gerade alle reden, nur dass ich nicht raten muss, wer von denen langfristig vorne liegt. Was mich überzeugt hat: ✅ 3,4 % Dividendenrendite ausschüttend ✅ Physische Replikation ✅ Sektor mit echter Preissetzungsmacht ✅ Stabile Cashflows, die ich als Dividendeninvestor liebe Was ich ehrlich dazusagen muss: ⚠️ Das ist kein diversifizierter ETF, das ist eine Sektorwette ⚠️ Allianz allein macht fast ein Fünftel aus ⚠️ Naturkatastrophen oder ein Zinsrückgang können den Kurs schnell belasten Ich halte das Risiko für überschaubar weil der ETF bei mir Ergänzung ist, nicht Fundament. Mein Core bleibt breit gestreut. Aber zweimal im Monat kaufe ich mir ein Stück von Europas Versicherungsbranche. Leise. Ohne Hype. Genau so, wie ich investiere. Kein Anlageberatung. Nur meine persönliche Meinung und wie ich selbst investiere.

There is some data available for Robinhood users, but it only reflects retail ownership on Robinhood itself, so it can be quite misleading when estimating overall retail ownership. Better data is available through the Bloomberg Terminal, although even that is mostly based on institutional filings and estimates rather than exact retail ownership data. Not sure if anyone in the community has access to it. Maybe @Rebellionaire does.

@Leinad7331 Do you have a view of the retail ownership? My sense is that it spiked in Jan (TSLA partnership announcement) and has been on a steady downtrend since.

Institutions are accumulating $LMND in the $50-$60 range.

@ShadyJosh5 Thank you for this down to earth post. I often forget that not chasing the next dopamine high (e.g. short term highs) is the goal, but continued long term progress

Thoughts on $LMND post Q1 2026 ER from a personal investment perspective. I've been following the Lemonade story since way before the IPO, having come across Daniel Schrieber and the original peer to peer business model in circa 2016. Luckily I missed out on the stock price action post IPO and through 2021, but got very interested in the stock in early 2022 when stock had fallen from peak 183 to around $18, and had a good hard look at whether the company could achieve it's claims. Watched many a @PaperBagInvest video before we ever crossed paths online or invested, he is the OG in the stock. The company suffered through a period of technical challenges in 2022 - 2024, mostly to do with macro inflation increasing claims costs at the same time as the mechanics (and regulatory rate filing limitations) would not allow Lemonade to match risk with rate - i.e. because inflation took off so dramatically in the 2022 period, writing business was simply not profitable. The management team took the very sensible and well signposted approach of taking their foot off the gas until inflation calmed down and regulatory approvals allowed rates to catch up to the cost of future claims. The earnings reports in this period were terrible, with a double whammy of poor topline growth alongside dismal bottom line results and large EBITDA losses. Understandably the stock struggled in the $12 - $18 range. I first invested in early 2022 but sold out a few times, luckily at some local peaks and traded pairs with Tesla in 2022 - 2023/24 which worked well. Then from around Sept 2023 I began to seriously ask the question: what would it look like in 20 years if I just committed to holding this stock from a $1bn market capitalization? What happens if the company does get through the rate change quagmire, and get back to a 30% long term growth rate? What if the claimed tech does result in collapsing loss adjusting expenses? What if there is truth to the claim that AI can literally run the company with limited human oversight? The conclusion I came to was that IF Lemonade could achieve the things laid out so eloquently in the earnings reports, albeit having to see past the near term market and mechanical challenges, the company had a clear path to a $100bn and greater market cap. So logically, all one had to do was hold one's nose and get past inflation/rate/capital adequacy concerns, and hold the stock. My background as a general insurance actuary massively helped here, as I could understand clearly the mechanics of why near term challenges would go away in time, and why Lemonade could have a clear 10% or more loss ratio advantage over the competition once they hit scale. That's a huge differential in a market where many insurers struggle to maintain a 90% combined ratio. Pricing elasticity means a slightly lower price than competitors translates into massive market share gains. Fast forward to early 2024 and the story hit a new trajectory of accelerating growth, increasing gross profit. The stock rapidly re-rated to $50 around the Nov 2024 investor day as investors finally got it. The stock hit a peak of ~$100 in Jan 2026 and has since halved to around $54, leading to frustration among newer investors and people looking for a quick buck. My own perspective is twofold: firstly, if you had invested $100,000 on 10th May 2024 at $16.58 you would now have $329,000 on 8th May 2026, a compound return of 81%. Not too shabby, notwithstanding the recent fall from $100. Secondly, if the thesis still holds, and Lemonade has an understandable, relatively low risk path to $100bn market cap, then all we have to do is hold and the returns will be astronomical from the current $4.2bn market cap. Investors like me with a cost basis around $17 for the bulk of shares held have had a 4x return so far, and I'm in it for the eventual 100x. Everything I read in the last four earnings reports put the trajectory squarely on the original thesis. Almost all of the data points we predicted and were looking for in the thesis that long term bulls agreed upon in late 2023 are in place and being hit consistently. The two areas of concern introduced in Q1 26 ER are: Stock based comp being higher than before (to me this is a non-relevant issue - if the stock goes up, happy for Daniel, Shai etc to create and capture value) The underlying operating expenses minus marketing increasing from around $85m per quarter in 2022 - 2024 to $110m in most recent ER. I give two thoughts to this: firstly, I think from Shai's comments on Q4 earnings call that the team are behind the scenes building infrastructure for future products that we don't know about (same as in 2022 a big amount of opex $ was to build the car product) - and secondly, a decent chunk of it is related to interest payable on the general catalyst programme. Just as Lemonade was using 75% then 55% and now 20% quota share, and the reduction increases revenue and retained profit, so they will in due course close the general catalyst programme and retain the 16% IRR for the company profit account. Capital constraints mean that is some way off, but eventually it will go away and the OPEX line will come down. Overall in my opinion the underlying Lemonade bull thesis is fully intact, and without going overboard on detail I believe the data points in last 3 earnings reports overwhelmingly give evidence that we are exactly on the trajectory we want to be on. The path to $100bn or greater market cap is clear to see if you have a long enough timeframe and patience. A better question than looking at the current stock price is, what kind of investor am I? Am I willing to park a good chunk of capital for 20 years to get an eventual 100x pay off? I asked myself those questions over the past 3 years and am fully committed to seeing the course. I will of course sell some along the way (around $180-$200) but the bulk of my investment is in it for the 20 year win. Hope to see some long term bulls be patient and chill as the story plays out. Not investment advice or influence, my risk tolerance is very high compared to an average investor and I have been relaxed about a large reduction in net worth over past six months. Many investors would sell at the bottom and lose, so if that's you then do diversify and use adequate risk management. Do not buy Lemonade stock if you get nervous about volatility. Good luck!

@rethink15411429 @Neil_X10 @CyberCatX No it wasn't a provocation and you didn't even mention me. I just wanted to correct this statement, so I felt baited.

When or how? I don’t remember but maybe I did… I only say that patting each other on the shoulder doesn’t help. Better take example from guys like Matk, see how he handles “provocative” question. To me it wasn’t provocation at all, but it seems it would be to you, maybe even offensive 👇

$LMND 亏损是个绝对的伪命题，聊个大部分人不知道的鬼故事，假设 $LMND 当下立刻停止增长性获客开支，那么公司已经盈利了，约为18.5 M。Lemonade 现在不是“业务本身不赚钱”，而是它主动把利润重新投入到获客增长里，为的是在未来更好的收获，这就是成长公司的本质。 当下lemonade能够按照 30+%的速度增长，并在q4达到adjusted EBITDA盈利本质上是管理层和股东的选择，赔付率只有60%左右，AI自动化已经实现员工负增长，为什么不获取更多的高质量顾客？要是真的愿意，Lemonade 明天就可以开始盈利。

@Neil_X10 @rethink15411429 @CyberCatX I know and he baited me, nonetheless I wanted to correct it lol

@Leinad7331 @rethink15411429 @CyberCatX I wouldn’t pay too much attention to this guy. He’s convinced the world trades on technicals alone and is looking for reasons to support his head and shoulders technical trading pattern.

He is not doing a proposal for a change in strategy. He didn't say anything about the shareprice. He just explained that $LMND already could be profitable, but deliberately chose not to. And if you are able to model things out, you can see that profitability is coming really soon despite increased growth spend.

Let me break it down what stopping growth oriented customer acquisition would mean for multiple it is trading. It could drop by 80%, together with share price, because it gets the high multiple from growing fast. So that exercise that you propose for $LMND doesn’t work. It would be profitable and could trade at 0.5-1.0 IFP.

@PaperBagInvest Another possible reason for the selloff. The market does not like LMND's increased growth spend right now, they want profitability sooner.

Interting that $LMND growth spend for 2026 was forecast as $225M last quarter, but they are now expecting to spend $235M. It may mean we continue to beat the top line guidance.

🍋 Quick thread on $LMND executive compensation. Some people attributed the sell-off yesterday partly to the increased SBC. But part of that was already known. The big grants for the management were filed on March 18/20 - over a month before earnings. The market barely reacted back then. An Overview: Old 2025 Grants: Normal annual equity compensation. Daniel and Shai each received ~127,780 stock options (strike $59.74, 3-year vesting). Standard yearly package. March 2026 – New Long-Term Plan: Shai and Daniel received 1,000,000 RSUs (1 RSU = 1 full share upon vesting) in one big grant: • 820,000 time-based RSUs that vest quarterly over 8 years • 180,000 performance RSUs that only vest if $LMND trades ≥ $110 for 30 consecutive trading days within the next 24 months. This is a major retention grant, not the regular annual award. Important: This 1 million RSU package is in addition to the normal annual grants. We should still expect another regular-sized grant for 2026 (similar to 2025) later this year. The big 8-year package is extra, not a replacement. Bottom line: Only 18% of this massive new grant is tied to any performance condition ($110 for 30 days). The other 82% vests simply if Daniel and Shai stay at the company for up to 8 years. This is fairly common in tech for big founder/CEO retention packages - the incentive is mostly “don’t leave” rather than hitting operational or strong shareholder-value targets. Shareholders get long-term alignment, but true pay-for-performance on the biggest grant in years is relatively weak. I wish it would be otherwise, but I trust Daniel and Shai to give their everything nonetheless. What do you think? $LMND

@ASchulz888 What do you think about the increased SBC?

I am not afraid to ask hard questions, even though that does not exactly make me Mr. Popular. I have even asked hard questions to $LMND in the past. But without doing it (and hearing smart people's responses), I find it impossible to build conviction. And conviction is what it takes to back up great companies when they get unfairly "thrown under the bus." Unfortunately that is exactly what I feel happened to $LMND this quarter. They really delivered, and yet the stock got crushed. It is hard to pinpoint an exact reason (between the contemporaneous fintech blowup, an oil price spike, and some negative statements by shorts). To be crystal clear, I don't think any of these matter over any extended period of time. $LMND really delivered this quarter, and I feel their outlook is as bright as ever. Good luck to $LMND and fellow shareholders.

@AIStockSavvy So why are they cutting their PT then?

$LMND | 𝐋𝐞𝐦𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐝𝐞: Citizens reiterates 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐎𝐮𝐭𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦, cuts 𝐏𝐓 𝐭𝐨 $𝟖𝟎 Analyst sees strong Q1 outperformance and improving fundamentals, but trims PT while growth, margin expansion, and path to profitability remain intact.

🍋$LMND

@PaperBagInvest @Lemonade_Inc I haven't made any calculations by myself, so please excuse me my maybe dumb question. But why are they posting this image stating 3x LTV / Cac in Q1 26 ?

On a Trailing-12-Month basis, my own estimate for $LMND's LTV/CAC is... *checks notes* ... 4.1 👀

$LMND 🍋 Q1 2026 Earnings are Up! Here is the Letter to Shareholders: lemonade.com/investor-relat… I will be posting analysis here in this thread as well as doing a video this morning on it.

DO NOT show this thread to $LMND bears.

@PaperBagInvest @Lemonade_Inc ... @shai_wininger is @PaperBagInvest confirmed once again..

@Lemonade_Inc By the way, my Q1 prediction for $LMND's gross loss ratio and breakdown (including attritional loss ratio, CAT, LAE and PPD) matched EXACTLY what @Lemonade_Inc reported. There was some luck in hitting that exactly, but I'll take some credit for it nevertheless.

@shai_wininger @kidfrancescoli Hey @shai_wininger – congrats on another great quarter! Calling dibs on Investor Day again 😂 let us know when it’s safe to start booking flights 😅

Lemonade’s Q1 results are 🔥. So much to share, where do I start? First, get into the AI mood, click this, + volume ⏫ open.spotify.com/track/20HCH8XT… (by @kidfrancescoli) 🚀10th consecutive quarter of accelerating IFP growth 🔥 Topline at $1.33 Billion (IFP +32%) 🔥 Revenue grew 71% to $258M 🔥 Gross Profit increased 159% to $100M 🔥 3.14M Customers 🔥 Adj. Free Cash Flow $17M Lemonade Pet exploding! ✅ Surpassed $500M top line early in Q2 ✅ #1 most searched pet insurance brand in the U.S. ✅ @lemonade_inc is now the 4th largest pet carrier in the U.S. ✅ AI-powered automation drives record claim handling efficiency (LAE: ~4%) ✅ Our data + tech edge lets us lower prices while boosting profitability Car picking up speed ✅ Now at 60% YoY growth, $214M IFP ✅ Loss ratio improved to 74% (14 pts better YoY) ✅ Autonomous Car for @Tesla FSD conversion rate 70% higher than standard And more... ↗️ Raising 2026 top & bottom line guidance ↗️ IFP per employee > $1M (3x improvement in 4 years) ↗️ Positive Adj. EBITDA in Q4 ↗️ Investor Day in NYC November 17

@shai_wininger @Neil_X10 @kidfrancescoli

@Neil_X10 @kidfrancescoli In our defense, we've all lost some weight since this video was taken

While I definitely would be paying for it, the community needs to be free to get a good amount of people on it. A community can only thrive when it has the critical mass. And even then I am a bit sceptical if we can reach that. But I hope for the best, because what other alternative do we have?

I’m a solid way through building a new home for the $LMND community (and potential wider financial communities that will be shortly closed down. I just can’t sit back and let it all be lost 😞 There will be a real an unavoidable ongoing infrastructure cost to run. I want to give this the very best chance to work and survive. Debate and knowledge sharing is the best way to learn. I want to get a view from the communities $Root, $Oscr $Hims $tsla What would people be happy to pay each month? If anything… the plan would be to create an X subscription - users that are subscribed don’t just get access to the community but wider financial data for public companies this is NOT a one shot Ai build - it’s taken nearly a year. Let me know 🙏 Ideally the monetisation of the wider data insights platform will keep communities alive and free (where entirely possible) The goal would be to always give users higher quality data than the leading financial data providers and always at a lower cost. How much would you contribute each month to keep communities alive and get richer financial data. It would Launch with Insider and Institutional transactions, rich insights on insiders not found anywhere else, earnings history, short interest, options data and more. Where possible - the plan would be launch with all the historic posts and comments, users can claim their X account handle via a secure two factor verification process to prevent users steeling and presenting to be you. You would then be able to just seamlessly continue the chat where everyone left off. 🤘🙏