Jedediah

“We should do all that, but it is [instrumentally] insufficient.” That is the correct way to read Wolfe’s statement, and it’s obviously correct. Anyone who isn’t trying to pick a fight knows that. Do you have a better way of expressing that God has positively given civil magistracy to society for purpose of civil ordering? If it is necessary, then a model of social change that ignores it is indeed “insufficient”.

@LexRexEst "nations do not change because of gospel-changed hearts" "it is insufficient" You're making presumptions here that couch what Wolfe is actually saying.

Remember kids, nations ARE people. They are not a creed or an idea, they ARE people. But you don't change them with the Gospel or the body of Christ. You change them via institutions. The body of Christ and the Gospel itself "isn't sufficient" to transform people.

@DeepValueBagger @Sandeman52 How much further do you think $NBIS has to go? It’s crazy to watch.

Big FatOG @Sandeman52 was up $1.6M yesterday (just for 1 day gains) on his 65000 shares of $NBIS. He's not even active today, so I'm assuming he is celebrating. Congrats all the $NBIS out there. $232.

You’re just willfully misunderstanding the sense of what Wolfe is saying. The gospel in application is not insufficient, but the preaching ministry of the gospel alone is insufficient to rightly rule a nation. That’s why we have a civil magistrate ordained of God for civil order. The homeless people on the parking lot outside my church are willful and hard hearted drug addicts. They need to be changed by the gospel, but instrumentally the need of the hour is forced rehab, detox, and labor camp. In that context, the preaching of the gospel may take root. Ordinarily, one whose reasoning faculties are impaired by drugs is not in a capacity to even consider the truths of the gospel.

@LexRexEst "gospel-changed hearts" is what repairs/reforms institutions. I reject the idea that the gospel in insufficient to change nations.

@_BikiniBottoms @WWUTTcom @LizzieMarbach That’s just not true?

@LexRexEst @WWUTTcom @LizzieMarbach It's a major mistake. Contradicts Genesis, Jeremiah, and just history/ archeology in general

Roman Catholics: “The apocrypha is Scripture!” The Apocrypha: “In the twelfth year of the reign of Nebuchadnezzar, who ruled over the Assyrians in the great city of Nineveh…” Nope. Not Scripture.

It’s a fake rebuttal. Wolfe is pointing out that the *way* the gospel transforms nations is not by transforming a base layer, but by transforming the leadership of a nation. It’s not a denigration of the gospel. It’s pointing out the instrument by which the gospel actually does make its public mark.

@targenerate If nations are people and the gospel is sufficient to transform people it follows that the gospel is sufficient to transform nations

@_BikiniBottoms @WWUTTcom @LizzieMarbach Please connect the dots for us?

@WWUTTcom @LizzieMarbach Ok. Then Acts isn't Scripture either

@ArtemisConsort One man actually believed in a creedal nation and they never forgave him for it.

@mattyglesias As a centrist Democrat, I’m calling on all Democrats to stay home this year in protest to a rigged system. We’re not gonna show up if our voice isn’t heard.

“America is a creedal nation.” “Okay. So is Liberia. Why did the creed work in America and not in Liberia?” “….”

“America is a creedal nation.” “Cool. Deport all the communists and Muslims since they explicitly reject the American creed.” “No we can’t do that!” “Right. You’d never do that. Because America is not a creedal nation.”

"America is a creedal nation!" "Okay, can we test people to see if they believe in the creed before letting them in?" "No, that's racist." "Then can we kick them out if they don't believe in the creed?" "No, that's denying them due process and their constitutional rights." "Can I see a copy of this creed?" "Nope, no one can agree on exactly what it is. We think it has something to do with the declaration of independence, though." "Okay, so what you're saying is that this creed defines the nation, but it isn't defined, that it forms the basis of the law, but has no effect on the law, that we owe allegiance to it, but that allegiance cannot be tested or demanded?" "Yep!" "So the creed could be anything, couldn't it? It could be 'horsies are pretty', or 'eat at Joe's', and it wouldn't make the slightest difference?" "I suppose so. I never really thought about it. What's important is that judges decide who is an American, and what America's future will be." "Say, aren't you a judge?" "Yes, what's your point?"

Inference got a hundred times cheaper this year. The compute bill went up anyway. If you understand why those two sentences are both true at the same time, you understand the most important thing happening in AI right now. I work on inference for a living, at @nebiustf, where we run open-source managed inference at scale. Most of what follows is what I'm seeing from inside the bill. 12 months ago, the cost of 1M tokens of frontier-class reasoning was somewhere on the order of $60. Today, an equivalent quality of output costs roughly $0.50. Price /token of o1-level intelligence has dropped about a 128x in a year. Price of GPT-4-level output has dropped roughly 100x since the original GPT-4 shipped. By any normal reading of a technology cost curve, this should be deflationary. It should be saving customers money. The opposite has happened. The total compute bill at every hyperscaler is going up, not down. Anthropic just signed multi-year capacity deals with both XAI and Amazon. Microsoft's Azure capex guide for 2026 starts with an eight. OpenAI is reportedly spending more on compute every quarter than it did in all of 2023. Nvidia paid roughly twenty billion dollars to acquire Groq, an inference-specialist company that did not exist as a serious commercial entity three years ago. The cost curve and the demand curve crossed, and then the demand curve lapped the cost curve. Here is what happened underneath. A reasoning model burns roughly 10x the output tokens of a non-reasoning model on the same task, because it spends most of its tokens thinking out loud before answering. An agentic workflow chains roughly twenty times the requests of a single-shot completion, because it loops, calls tools, plans, retries, and synthesizes. A modern deep-research query (the kind a research analyst can fire off in fifteen seconds and then walk away from for ten minutes) costs more compute than 10 original GPT-4 queries combined. We made every individual token a hundred times cheaper, and then we built a generation of products that consume ten thousand times more tokens. This is the Jevons paradox playing out at trillion-dollar scale, in compressed time, in front of everyone. Jevons noticed in 1865 that making coal-burning more efficient did not reduce coal consumption. It increased it, because efficiency unlocked uses that were previously uneconomic. Steam engines became more practical at smaller scales. Whole industries that could not afford coal at the old price suddenly could. Britain's coal consumption rose sharply, not despite the efficiency gains, but because of them. The same thing is happening to AI compute right now and it is happening faster than any analogous historical cycle. Falling token prices did not contract demand. They unlocked agents, deep research, code-writing systems, multi-step reasoning, persistent memory, the entire next layer of AI products. Every product in that next layer consumes orders of magnitude more compute than the chat interfaces it is replacing. The math at the aggregate level is brutal: 100x cheaper tokens times 10 000 more tokens equals a 100x larger total bill. The implications stack quickly. If you are running a hyperscaler, your 2026 capex guide is not a peak. It is a step on a curve. Inference is structurally always-on, twenty-four hours a day, in a way that training never was. Training is bursty. You spin up a cluster, run for weeks or months, and stop. Inference runs continuously, scales with usage, and the usage curve is exponential. Your power bill, your cooling bill, your transceiver count, your storage footprint, all of these were sized for a workload mix that no longer exists. If you are running an AI software company built on top of someone else's closed API, you have a problem that did not exist a year ago. Your gross margins get worse as your customers get more value out of your product, because the more they use it, the more compute you pay for. The companies that win this are the ones that figured out vertical integration before the math caught them. If you are watching this from a distance and trying to understand where the next bottlenecks form, the answer is everywhere downstream of "more inference compute, always-on, with massive memory state per session." The KV cache, the running memory state of a long conversation or an agent loop, is the silent monster of the inference era. It does not scale linearly with parameters. It scales linearly with context length and number of agent steps. A long agent session can hold tens of gigabytes of state per user, per session. Multiply that by every concurrent user of every product, and you understand why $MU, $SNDK, $TOWCF, and the entire memory and packaging layer have re-rated the way they have. The CPU-to-GPU ratio is evolving. Training is 1:8. Basic chat inference is 1:4. Agentic inference is 1:1, sometimes CPU-heavy. Google has split its TPU line in two, with a dedicated inference chip carrying tripled SRAM for KV cache. $INTC and $AMD just spent two earnings calls explaining that this shift is structural, not cyclical. The hardware map is redrawing in real time and the financial press is mostly still writing about training clusters. The right framing of where we are right now is not that AI is hitting a wall. The framing a year ago that scaling was hitting a wall was the most expensive bad take of the cycle. The right framing is that AI got dramatically cheaper, dramatically more capable, and dramatically more useful, and the cost of running it at the new equilibrium of demand is much higher than the cost at the old equilibrium of demand, because the new equilibrium is enormous. A meaningful share of what we actually do at Token Factory, day to day, is help customers stop their bills from running away from them. KV-cache management. Speculative decoding. Quantization. Routing. The kind of vertical integration that, eighteen months ago, every product team was happy to leave abstracted away behind a closed API. The reason this stack matters now is the same reason this whole essay matters: at the new equilibrium of inference demand, the cost of treating compute as a commodity is no longer survivable. The companies that figure out the layer beneath the API are the ones who keep their margins. Cheaper tokens. More tokens. Same coal as 1865.

Excellent indicator that pure online attention and even a massive negative campaign against Vivek which I was happy to participate in does not translate to actual results. Had his opponent simply run a normal campaign, with the line of “I’m a normal White Ohioan man and I care about Ohio.” It would’ve been vastly closer, possibly even succeeded. Instead it was an absolute freak show and a disaster meant to launch a rumble podcast at best, without any real desire to actually win the campaign itself. If anything, this largely helped Vivek. Much to actually learn from this in how to actually accomplish anything you actually claim you want to.

@Billionaire_33 @MattWalshBlog troonie christian? That's offensive. God has appointed civil rulers to make civil punishments. The gospel does not deny civil punishments in this life. This man should be preached to, offered the gospel, and hanged the next day.

I am challenging any death penalty opponent — there are millions of them, allegedly — to step up to the plate right now and explain why this guy should not be executed. His guilt is established beyond any doubt whatsoever. His crime is utterly savage and heinous. Tell us why he doesn’t deserve to die. Go ahead.

@whisperingcandl @DeepValueBagger Missing memory, especially SNDK, stings wild right now lol. Just watching from the sidelines.

@DeepValueBagger "Memory shortage stocks have to go to a higher place," Cramer declared...It's very difficult to imagine it, but stocks do gallop to where they should be… WDC, SNDK, STX, will be overheated until they get to where they have to go." - Jim Cramer. PHEW.

I view my investments within the entire market (sector, and cross sector). I have high conviction commentary that comes from my depth of knowledge and experience. You won't hear me say: - Neutral: $META earning is good, but price is down -- market does not get it. - Neutral: $DUOL is 5 times its sales, it's so undervalued and market is scared. - This stock could 10x. - Twist every bad news into a good news. Every post is a bit of insight even if you may disagree with it. Sometimes commentary may sound bearish, but it just means I like another company more given the news. I know people like posts that empathize with you "your stock is down, the market doesn't get it". I'm not here for that. I'm a realist. It's probably very unusual for people to hear. Things can change on the dime. This level alertness allow me to do 900% in 3 short years.

@PaulaCoyscot @Jonathan_Hinder Yes. And the UK needs a lot more of it.

@Jonathan_Hinder Are you suggesting that a kick in the head was deserved as it was revenge. I understand all the billy bog bollocks will yell *Hed have got worse if it was up to me!* but remember you’re an MP. Are police to be allowed to use violence out of revenge?