Lorenzo Termine

After almost 6 years of research, my book on moderate #revisionism and #regionalsecurity orders is finally coming out with @Palgrave! It explores why and how states challenge the regional #statusquo through gradual, calculated adjustments. Details: bit.ly/Termine-Palgra…

#rtsa esprime cordoglio per la scomparsa di Gaspare Nevola, professore ordinario di Scienza politica all’Università di Trento. Coordinatore dell’Area di scienza politica della Rivista, ha contribuito con rigore e apertura interdisciplinare all’analisi dei fenomeni politici.

About half of this platform is making some version of the below argument today. I ain't no Carl von Clausewitz and the super-secret American "strategy" to curtail Chinese power still eludes me but I will say this: If the "true" American strategy is to pivot to Asia to curtail the rise of Chinese power, then picking trade fights with every single ally and partner in Asia, withdrawing from regional standard-setting pacts, taking steps that perversely accelerate Chinese planning and might even shorten Beijing's timelines, canceling a sizable chunk of U.S. foreign assistance to Asia, coercing friends, scaling down diplomatic presence, and loudly asserting "primacy" but withdrawing from providing public goods, all while carving out export control exceptions for China to chips and other technologies and fighting wars in third regions, seems like a rather mysterious way to do it. But as I said, I ain't no Clausewitz.

My initial take for @BulletinAtomic: U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran reflect the culmination of years of Tehran’s strategic choices. Incremental nuclear advances raised threat perceptions without delivering credible deterrence. thebulletin.org/2026/02/israel…

The first hours of the current strikes against #Iran already show important differences from the 12-Day War; in timing, objectives, coordination, and the scale of escalation. What we know so far: 🔹The attacks began with explosions reported across Tehran. Early reports indicated ~30 targets in the first wave, including leadership residences, intelligence facilities, and reportedly even the Supreme Leader’s office. 🔹Unlike the 12-Day War, which began with nighttime strikes, this operation started early in the morning, on the first day of Iran’s calendar week. The timing suggests an attempt to maximize operational disruption and leadership exposure from the outset. 🔹Target selection points to a decapitation strategy. Initial strikes appear aimed at leadership nodes and Iran’s security apparatus rather than purely military infrastructure. 🔹U.S. involvement marks a major shift. This time, Washington appears directly engaged from the beginning, with American officials reportedly describing the campaign as extensive and closely coordinated with Israel. 🔹Donald Trump framed the operation as defending Americans and removing immediate threats, but his remarks supporting the Iranian people against the regime strongly suggest regime change is an underlying objective. 🔹The operational concept appears phased: early missile strikes targeting leadership and air defenses, including sites in southern Iran such as Chabahar, likely intended to clear the way for later air force operations against missile bases and strategic assets. 🔹Iran’s response has been unusually rapid. Missile launches reportedly began within a couple of hours, with reported strikes in Tel Aviv and Haifa. The Iranian statements signaled that no “red lines” remain and that full-force retaliation is underway. 🔹This suggests predelegated response authority: rather than waiting for centralized coordination, Iranian forces appear instructed to maintain continuous firepower against Israel from the outset. 🔹Another key difference: Iran has already expanded the confrontation beyond Israel. Reports of explosions in GCC states indicate strikes targeting U.S. bases, signaling direct confrontation with Washington from the start. 🔹This contrasts sharply with June 2025, when Iran’s strike on Al Udeid in Qatar was largely symbolic and designed to facilitate de-escalation before a ceasefire. 🔹Meanwhile, Yemen’s Houthis have announced renewed attacks in the Red Sea, meaning the conflict has already begun evolving into a multi-front regional confrontation. 🔹Overall, the early pattern suggests a far more coordinated, expansive, and escalatory conflict than the 12-Day War, with regime decapitation, direct U.S. participation, rapid Iranian retaliation, and immediate regional spillover. 🔹The key question now: whether escalation stabilizes into controlled exchanges or whether the removal of previous “red lines” pushes the conflict into a prolonged regional war.

Trump is now the “neocon” that he has ridiculed for all of his public life. Trump has just openly called for regime change in Iran. He is using the American armed forces to facilitate that outcome. This is a complete reversal of what he has been promising his supporters for decades.

New publication on #Italy's potential #IndoPacific strategy! 🌍🌏 🇮🇹 Full access: rdcu.be/eYljX In it, I propose 7 key elements it should include. Hopefully the debate will continue developing! @uComillas @ComillasCHS @Sydney_Uni @IAIonline link.springer.com/article/10.100…

📖 Pubblicato il Report di @Geopoliticainfo “La guerra in Ucraina nel 2025: impatto strategico, economico e geopolitico del conflitto sul sistema europeo”, presentato il 17 dicembre presso il Dipartimento di Scienze Politiche dell'Università La Sapienza. 🇺🇦 Il rapporto, articolato in 3 sezioni, analizza la guerra in Ucraina nel 2025 come fattore di trasformazione per l’Europa, evidenziando le principali sfide geopolitiche. ✒️🇫🇮🇸🇪🇳🇴🇩🇰 Nel mio contributo “Nord Europa e guerra in Ucraina: coerenza strategica e attivismo diplomatico” (pp. 104–122) analizzo la postura adottata dai Paesi nordici rispetto al conflitto, esaminando l'evoluzione dell'approccio strategico regionale nel contesto NATO, il supporto militare e politico-diplomatico fornito a Kyiv e il ruolo svolto nelle dinamiche diplomatiche attorno al conflitto.

✍🏼 La politica industriale cinese nel settore delle terre rare Analisi del dominio cinese sulle terre rare e sui magneti, leva strategica globale. Filippo Fabbri cli.re/de3KpR

🇮🇹 LA POLITICA INTERNAZIONALE DELL'ITALIA ALLA FINE DELLA GUERRA FREDDA 🌏 #FondazioneCraxi @DiSpSapienza 🗓️ 3 DICEMBRE 2025 | ⏰ 14:00 📍 Sapienza Università di Roma, Scienze Politiche (Aula B)

🌏 “Reimagining #Taiwan – Conflict, Connectivity, and Identity” is happening today in #Sapienza, Sala Lauree, from 9:30 AM to 1:00 PM. See you there!

@LorenzoTerm @Palgrave @AncaPusca It was my pleasure and great to see that the present and future of revisionism scholarship is in such great hands!

When the #revisionism mastermind himself @profjwdavidson positively reviews your book on #moderaterevisionism, I guess you must have got something right and you can't be too off base. Thank you Jason! It means much. Read it on #JCES: tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10… @Palgrave @AncaPusca

Documento Programmatico Pluriennale DPP #difesa attesta che #Italia raggiuge obiettivo #NATO 2% #PIL nel 2025 con salto di ben 12,6 miliardi di euro rispetto al 2024 (qui grafico DPP). Ma da dove vengono e dove vanno questi fondi? Ne parliamo su @AffInt: affarinternazionali.it/il-documento-p…

Comincia al @centrostudiusa il panel "Ordine marittimo internazionale basato su regole" con la delegazione filippina. #Diplomacy25 @LorenzoTerm @StefanoPelaggi @JayBatongbacal

"Ho partecipato insieme agli Ambasciatori di Malesia e Australia, alla Vice Direttrice Generale Alessandra Schiavo @ItalyMFA, e la Direttrice Generale @eu_eeas Paola Pampaloni ad un dibattito sull'UE e l'Indo-Pacifico. Ha sottolineato la crescente importanza dell'Indo-Pacifico, il ruolo e l'approccio dell'India, in particolare MAHASAGAR, e ho accolto con favore l'impegno dell'UE nell'Indo-Pacifico. Un ringraziamento all'eccellente moderatore @LorenzoTerm e a @DiplomacyinRome"

Joined Ambassadors of Malaysia, Australia & DDG Alessandra Schiavo @ItalyMFA, Managing Director @eu_eeas Paola Pampaloni to speak about EU & the Indo-Pacific. Highlighted growing significance of Indo-Pacific, India’s role & approach especially MAHASAGAR, and welcomed the EU’s engagement with the Indo-Pacific . Thanks to excellent moderator @LorenzoTerm & @DiplomacyinRome

Big time moderating Excellencies at the @DiplomacyinRome roundtable on #EU and #IndoPacific. Thanks to @VaniRao1 @IndiainItaly, @AusAmbItaly Amb. Zahid Rastam, and Directors Alessandra Schiavo and @PAMPALONIPAOLA. #Diplomacy25

Oggi pomeriggio al Centro Studi Americani in occasione del XVI Festival della Diplomazia! Secondo panel sugli aspetti economici e commerciali con @MarcoOsnato e @BergamiDavide

In corso il dibattito su #relazioni #transatlantiche nella splendida cornice del @centrostudiusa a #Roma, tavolo denso di expertise @Geopoliticainfo @IAIonline @FCoticchia @mazziottidicels @eliocalcagno @g_natalizia @LorenzoTerm @guerini_lorenzo

Termina una mattinata di dibattito colma di spunti sulle #relazioni transatlantiche e i loro sviluppi, dalla #difesa alla sicurezza #internazionale. Grazie a tutti i relatori e ai partecipanti!