Lowkey Capital

Finally done lurking. Here’s my first post: a deep dive on the TFG–Ripple play, which I first came across thanks to @puppyeh1. He does great work and has been a big influence for me as an analyst. Give him a follow if you haven’t already. @lowkeycapital/note/p-149437616?r=fcdmu" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">substack.com/@lowkeycapital…

@nicholasstaylor Agreed, I think the buyback angle definitely took a hit with how underwhelming the one that just closed was… they can definitely do much better. As for the rest I still believe, patience is our friend here for sure.

Dusting off my thoughts on this one. Think the three scenarios still look right, though the chances of ‘aggressive buybacks’ in the bull case has declined. Bull now 20% prob. And 40% disc. Still over 100% 2 year return. Base still 50% >50% return Bear 30% - flatish return

@nicholasstaylor @Wexboy_Value @dlitten4 @huntforcatalyst @puppyeh1 At this point all you can do is laugh honestly 😭

@LowkeyCapitaI @Wexboy_Value @dlitten4 @huntforcatalyst So in the last week…$50m tender, $155m windfall from BGO over 31/12 carry value (confirmed to me by sell side who spoke to CFO), ripple buyback at $50bn Val (per @puppyeh1 ) and then yesterday strong drilling results from OBM (Up 21% on the news). $TFG.AS …down 1% 😂

Still pounding the table on $TFG.AS / $TFG.LN / $TFG . At a 61% discount to a very conservative NAV, it’s hard to justify management inaction. They’ve never cared much, but at what point does the gap become impossible to ignore?

Wars in the Middle East, crypto meltdowns, no matter - Ripple Inc still doing tender offers, now $300/share 😳 $XRP $TFG.AS

@nicholasstaylor @Wexboy_Value @dlitten4 @huntforcatalyst I can’t believe I’m finally seeing Tetragon and Tender in the same sentence

@Wexboy_Value @dlitten4 @LowkeyCapitaI @huntforcatalyst BGO sold. $50m tender.

@nicholasstaylor @Wexboy_Value @huntforcatalyst 65% discount to NAV as of today’s close, everyday it gets more ridiculous

@LowkeyCapitaI @Wexboy_Value @huntforcatalyst Fairly benign factsheet, except for a reduction in net cash in favour of investments (mostly ‘other equities and credit’). Doesn’t look like a brewing buyback…

@Wexboy_Value @nicholasstaylor @huntforcatalyst 🤣🤣🤣

@LowkeyCapitaI @nicholasstaylor @huntforcatalyst But but, his answers are bullish… …for him & Reade!

@Wexboy_Value @nicholasstaylor @huntforcatalyst I’m hoping some good questions on the call will push him to give a bullish answer, but based on how he avoided the topic last time I doubt it.

@nicholasstaylor @LowkeyCapitaI @huntforcatalyst Question(s) for Paddy are obv: i) WHAT better inv't/use of funds cd there possibly be than a (mega) tender offer at a 60%+ NAV disct (!?!), even one funded with a modest increase in net debt ratio, and ii) what is the current/expected likelihood & timing of a (mid-year) BGO sale?

@nicholasstaylor @Wexboy_Value @huntforcatalyst Damn🥲 I’m indeed a newbie holding for only 1 year, so I guess I’m about find out the hard way lol

@Wexboy_Value @LowkeyCapitaI @huntforcatalyst @Wexboy_Value is a bigger student of TFG history than me (though I am 13 years in) but sadly I don’t think they use these investor calls for major news. They might update on use of cash if it has been used for debt paydown or follow on investment I suppose! Hope I’m wrong

@Wexboy_Value @huntforcatalyst @nicholasstaylor Fingers crossed we get an announcement of some sort on the 6th of March with the H2 2025 call…

@huntforcatalyst @nicholasstaylor @LowkeyCapitaI wexboy.wordpress.com/2026/02/13/202…

What if you invested in every high-conviction insider buy? We built a simulated portfolio following our 95+ score signals since 2020. The result: +200% vs S&P 500's ~110% Explore the full breakdown → insidertracked.com/portfolio #insidertrading #investing

@Noalgos Hahaha oops, thankfully not as cotton is not looking too good right now 😭

@LowkeyCapitaI I thought u talking about cotton 🤣

Haven’t been too vocal about it, but $COTN is now up 26% since I’ve posted my deep dive 5 months ago. With the sector that is currently on fire (see $ASML - $SNDK - $MU) I think it might not be done just yet.

An another 17% for $ALT at open. God bless the scoring system.

It was, indeed, not done just yet. $COTN now up 50% since. Will be taking profit at some point before earnings on March 6th.

Hard to imagine Stephen Prince ( $TFG AM CEO ), who loaded up on shares around $18, is very happy with this.

@2iqresearch Very interesting, however I’m still trying to get into contact with you sales team, seems both numbers on your website are not working. My emails have also gone unanswered. Is there an admin behind this page?

Cluster insider buys at MORELD ASA: CEO Austigard, CFO Rosnes, and CEO Ocean Installer Murphy each acquired 30,000 shares. The news comes as Moreld Apply secures a five-year frame agreement with Equinor and project momentum builds in subsea and modification services.

@2iqresearch Hi @2iqresearch, I’m trying to get into contact with you sales team, seems both numbers on your website are not working. My emails have also gone unanswered.

Zenas BioPharma CEO spent $1.63M buying $ZBIO stock in early January (50K, 30K, and 20K shares). Shares plunged after the INDIGO trial results met primary endpoints but disappointed markets, highlighting the disconnect between clinical and sentiment drivers.

Something to think about…

A bit more on our scoring system, which flagged 6 max score transactions in the past 90 days, the results since then? 1. $DJT - Up 32% ✅ 2. $CATX - Up 33% ✅ 3. $CELH - Up 6% ✅ 4. $PGNY - Up 6% ✅ 5. $CATX - Up 37% ✅ 6. $MDTR - Up 13% ✅ $SPX over the same period? Up only 2%. Pretty big outperformance if you ask us. Source: insidertracked.com/performance