Nicholas Taylor

1.2K posts

Nicholas Taylor

Nicholas Taylor

@nicholasstaylor

Katılım Şubat 2009
285 Takip Edilen75 Takipçiler
Nicholas Taylor
Nicholas Taylor@nicholasstaylor·
@Wexboy_Value @DeckoDeck903 Gemini says the key is the substantial shareholding notification change - which is unlikely to change in event of a vesting (as control doesn’t change). This looks like a new interest, and the OTC nature makes it more legal/compliant than open market would ahead of deadline.
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Wexboy
Wexboy@Wexboy_Value·
@nicholasstaylor @DeckoDeck903 Maybe I'll end up asking IR...I'm sure they won't share much more detail, but they really shd confirm if it's open mkt purchase or not/vesting/whatever as it's pretty relevant to investors if they can't ultimate determine for themselves!
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Wexboy
Wexboy@Wexboy_Value·
$TFG.AS $TFG.L #TFG Latest #Tetragon $25M tender offer closes soon, so here's share price AVERAGES from last four tenders: Increase during Tender Period: +1.98% Avg Tender Premium at end of Offer Period: +3.45% Avg Decline 1 Wk Later: (0.04)% Avg Decline 2 Wks Later: (1.16)%
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Nicholas Taylor
Nicholas Taylor@nicholasstaylor·
@Wexboy_Value @DeckoDeck903 One theory. This was the overhang left over from the tender offer (dates roughly match). It was oversubscribed by 1.8m shares. He could well have picked up the majority of these for himself in a side transaction?
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Wexboy
Wexboy@Wexboy_Value·
@nicholasstaylor @DeckoDeck903 I lean twds a mkt purchase, as I'd have thought/expected any restricted stock vesting wd simply be covered by the substantial shareholding filing made on the same day: afm.nl/nl-nl/sector/r… But I will be researching this again in due course.
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Nicholas Taylor
Nicholas Taylor@nicholasstaylor·
@Wexboy_Value @DeckoDeck903 Ouch. We’ve given up all the gains from all the many (genuine) catalysts in the last 18 months - equitix, BGO, ripple etc. And a completely unforced error. Just buy back your fu*king stock - that’s all the market wanted…
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Nicholas Taylor
Nicholas Taylor@nicholasstaylor·
@huntforcatalyst @LowkeyCapitaI Well I suppose that is a matter of timing. I’ve been in for 10-12 years and, although an ok total return, I think it’s fair to say it’s been a bit of a value trap. From this starting point it’s a different equation and hard to see a very poor return. That’s the risk though.
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Nicholas Taylor
Nicholas Taylor@nicholasstaylor·
Dusting off my thoughts on this one. Think the three scenarios still look right, though the chances of ‘aggressive buybacks’ in the bull case has declined. Bull now 20% prob. And 40% disc. Still over 100% 2 year return. Base still 50% >50% return Bear 30% - flatish return
Nicholas Taylor@nicholasstaylor

@LowkeyCapitaI @puppyeh1 @Wexboy_Value Great to see so much thought on this one. My working framework for $TFG.L / $TFG.AS — 2-year total return outlook: Bull / Base / Bear scenarios with weighted probabilities. Be keen to hear your pushback or thoughts? 🧵👇

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Nicholas Taylor
Nicholas Taylor@nicholasstaylor·
@DeckoDeck903 @Wexboy_Value My thoughts entirely. There is a clearly a lot of disappointment with management and fatigue at waiting. This is obviously good for NAV/Share accretion but a slightly worrying statement.
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Nicholas Taylor
Nicholas Taylor@nicholasstaylor·
@Wexboy_Value Yes this latest drawdown has annoyed me too, and hurt as I last added at $19! I would guess it’s mostly a buyers strike given the there’s few new catalysts to await, plus some crypto winter-ishness on Ripple. Looks like we will have to wait a little longer…
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Wexboy
Wexboy@Wexboy_Value·
@nicholasstaylor I've been so disgusted with the share price reaction, I have tweeted an analysis post-Mar call, BGO sale announcement & tender offer - sometimes you just have to let the no's march up & to the right & do the talking...
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Nicholas Taylor
Nicholas Taylor@nicholasstaylor·
@LowkeyCapitaI @Wexboy_Value @dlitten4 @huntforcatalyst So in the last week…$50m tender, $155m windfall from BGO over 31/12 carry value (confirmed to me by sell side who spoke to CFO), ripple buyback at $50bn Val (per @puppyeh1 ) and then yesterday strong drilling results from OBM (Up 21% on the news). $TFG.AS …down 1% 😂
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Lowkey Capital
Lowkey Capital@LowkeyCapitaI·
Still pounding the table on $TFG.AS / $TFG.LN / $TFG . At a 61% discount to a very conservative NAV, it’s hard to justify management inaction. They’ve never cared much, but at what point does the gap become impossible to ignore?
Lowkey Capital tweet media
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Nicholas Taylor
Nicholas Taylor@nicholasstaylor·
@Pulltopar Weak arguments re wider investment trust space. It is unloved, sure, but little else is on 65% disc and even if it were it doesn’t change the buyback maths - it’s a better use of money than anything else.
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Moriarty
Moriarty@Pulltopar·
@nicholasstaylor Well, we were right 475M before taxes. It's crazy they don't tender significantly more than the mere 50M they announced...
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Moriarty
Moriarty@Pulltopar·
$TFG.AS Only a 50M tender after BGO sale? To give some context, the call option was valued at 250M. If I´m understanding the transaction correctly, they should receive 400M+ for the sale while retaining 67M in carry
Moriarty tweet media
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Keşfet

@Wexboy_Value @DeckoDeck903 @huntforcatalyst @LowkeyCapitaI @puppyeh1 @SenMarcoRubio @campbellclaret @grok