Luke

Happy New Year! Happy New Year! Here is every book I read in 2025, ranked, with a selection of memorable quotes. lukeheide.com/writing/year-i…

7:20 am round

Coattail rider. Bad temper. Dirty. That's the story you've heard about Draymond Green. The best in the game tell a different story…

@grok @LandoBulll @WhiteHouse Fed maintains rate is 97% on prediction markets for June, 91% July, 78% September. These numbers didn’t change based on warsh nomination. So what is your 7/10 based on? Next year rate cuts or warsh defying the odds and getting cuts in?

Solid 7/10 bullish for markets. Warsh views AI as a major disinflationary productivity booster, creating room for rate cuts even if inflation lingers. Shrinking the balance sheet brings discipline and less distortion, pairing well with data-driven policy. Certainty + pro-growth alignment beats uncertainty.

✅ CONFIRMED Kevin Warsh has been confirmed as the Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System!

The guy campaigned on lowering prices and then loudly prioritized a core economic policy that's specifically designed to increase prices - and THEN he bragged about the policy (repeatedly) and called the affordability issue a "hoax." Huge mystery why Americans are so upset!

Prediction market haters thought 500k was bad… Markets aren’t the problem.

The government's unfortunate role in killing Spirit Airlines is surely noteworthy, but Spirit is really just the latest in a very long line of atrocious-in-retrospect government claims re: the supposed "threat" that "dominant" private companies present to US consumers:

@PhilWMagness Definitely agree on point 2. On point 1, I think it’s worth explicitly qualifying the vote out: Consumers voted it out through the market, and the market also gave leaders enough time to see it and do something about it, like save jobs and resources, via merger.

1. Spirit was an objectively terrible airline. The market worked & consumers voted it out of business 2. Spirit's sudden collapse was exacerbated by socialist antitrusters like Elizabeth Warren and Lina Khan, who explicitly blocked a less-disruptive solution via merger in 2024

@turribledood @PeterSchiff @ewarren Pressure. She warned for months. Then took a victory lap.

@PeterSchiff @ewarren You know a US District Judge blocked the merger in Federal court, correct?

The Big Four airlines (American, Delta, Southwest, United) control 75% of the U.S. market. Fewer choices = higher prices for you.

Trump and Warren, central planner extraordinaires

shorting $AAPL "because it's just buybacks" is like fighting a grizzly "because it's furry"

The Fed expanded the money supply by nearly $9 trillion under Powell. Inflation has averaged >4% per year over the past 6 years. Powell's explanation? It was nearly all due to rolling “supply shocks" over which the Fed has no control. The truth: this inflation was made in Washington as it always is - from too much government borrowing/spending and too much government creation of money.

Imagining explaining to the Founding Fathers that the president imposed tariffs without an act of Congress and then removed them at the request of the King of England

Trump’s DOJ just filed what may be the most deranged written Motion ever. It reads more like a Truth Social post dictated by Trump himself. What an embarrassment. The Motion is filled with inappropriate personal insults. It literally calls the National Trust for Historic Preservation name “FAKE” and says the group is “very bad for our Country.” It accuses them of suffering from “Trump Derangement Syndrome” and frames their lawyer as “the lawyer for Barack Hussein Obama.” This is an actual line from the filing: “because it is DONALD J. TRUMP, a highly successful real estate developer, who has abilities that others don't, especially those who assume the Office of President, this frivolous and meritless lawsuit was filed.” This is how the Department of Justice is writing now? Then comes the opportunism. The filing leans heavily on the White House Correspondents’ Dinner incident and uses it to push Trump’s long-standing obsession with building a ballroom. Instead of addressing what went wrong, it argues that none of this would have happened if Trump’s project already existed. They claim “bipartisan support” because of support from…John Fetterman. The lawsuit also claims at multiple points the ballroom won’t cost taxpayers anything—something we now know to be false. Every DOJ lawyer who put their name on this should be ashamed. And it should be a major scandal that it appears that Donald Trump is the one who actually wrote this. So much for DOJ independence.

@CremeDeLaCrypto Strip US regulations and this gap would close. US customers on polymarket are similarly restricted. There are some differences in strategy/philosophy, but this large gap is not a choice.

Kalshi and Polymarket were nearly tied on total volume in March at ~$12B each. Strip out sports and it's a different picture. Polymarket did $7.5B in non-sports volume. Kalshi did $1.6B. It's weird that they're even in the same category given very different positioning for what prediction markets become

Are you ready to have your mind blown? Since 1989, money invested when the market is at all-time highs has actually outperformed money invested on any given day. 🤯🤯🤯

There are currently 2,901 players in the men’s basketball transfer portal, opening 14 hours ago. With only 5,607 Division I players total, more than half of the player pool is now in the portal.

Michigan-UConn 1st half betting at @BetMGM 95% of money is on @umichbball -3.5 98% of money is on Michigan -220 87% of money is on OVER 67.5 Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER

Great season. Will miss seniors Kohler and Coop.

Over 600 people were fired or punished for posting about Charlie Kirk's death: theguardian.com/us-news/ng-int…

For the first time in program history the Michigan State Spartans are back-to-back-to-back Big Ten champs!