Jonathan

@wrightr @NewYorker Your article boils down to “it doesn’t make sense”, with no explanation of Trump’s incentives. UChicago’s Robert Pape explains “why”. Trump is trapped: accept a President Carter/Hoover legacy or try a military solution with low success probability. He’s going for the latter.

Trump is ad-libbing "strategy" on Iran. My latest @NewYorker Yorker piece. Since launching Operation Epic Fury, Trump has proclaimed more than 30 times that the war has been won, is over, or is almost over. Instead, it is escalating. The US has now spent the first quarter century of the 21st century in hapless wars. newyorker.com/news/the-lede/…

@BurggrabenH This section of your article seems lifted verbatim from an article from The Economist. As far as I can tell, there is no attribution. economist.com/europe/2026/07… from The Economist

Russia's fuel crisis has entered a new phase. This is no longer a logistics problem. It is a volume problem. It is the endgame. My latest deep dive examines what Ukraine's refinery campaign is really doing to Russia's economy, military logistics and global energy markets. Over 100 charts, proprietary data and the final conclusion. Free to read until the Investment Section. If you find it valuable, please share. @MFA_Ukraine @khodorkovsky_en @Kasparov63 @ZelenskyyUa @alexstubb @sikorskiradek open.substack.com/pub/alexanders…

@ArmsGarrett The Tobacco story was attractive EPS growth, as price increases continuously offset volume drops. Does this alcohol company have the required pricing power over the next few years?

Alcohol is the new tobacco continues--Cuervo now off 70% over the last five years. What's wild is that it isn't even levered—lost 70% of its enterprise value since 2021.

@thealepalombo Most good schools publish their scores on their website and this page compiles them, so you can get a good feel. ib-schools.com/league-tables/…

@MENA_Mercenary Interesting, can u share more please?

Where to live in Europe with family in 2026, tax-optimised? Almost no European city delivers all six of these together anymore: -Low taxes -Kids who can walk to school safely -International schools that actually exist -Healthcare you'd actually use in an emergency -An airport within 2 hours -A tax regime that won't get killed in the next election The ones that still do are not the ones on most lists. I'm Italian. I've been living in Portugal with my wife for a few years. I've run this spreadsheet across the continent. 12 cities. Part I with the first 6 below. 🧵

@thealepalombo Istanbul schools… I looked at the 3 IB schools and average scores are 32-33 points. For the price tag ($40k/yr) that’s not great. Much better schools in Sing, HK, even UAE.

Istanbul is also the most polarizing pick on this list. Plenty of families will look at Turkey and say no, for reasons that have nothing to do with the math. Language, religion, political climate, geopolitics, EU candidacy uncertainty. The same regime that makes the rate irresistible makes the cultural distance real for families who've built their lives inside EU institutions and Mediterranean culture. Istanbul itself: ~16M across European and Asian shores, the only Turkish metro that supports international families at scale. Schools: Robert College, MEF International, British International School Istanbul, IICS, German School Istanbul, Lycée Saint-Joseph. Family neighborhoods: Bebek, Etiler, Nişantaşı, Levent on the European side; Kadıköy, Moda, Bağdat Caddesi on the Asian side. The catch: lira volatility has been brutal. Political environment requires its own due diligence. The regime is announced but not codified. Whether you take it depends on how you weigh the cultural distance against 20 years of math.

@puppyeh1 $10m in 80s to $6bn in 2000s when the brothers split. A handful of multi baggers with very very high concentration

Thinking more about this. This is almost exactly how the Chandlers (secretive Kiwi multi billionaires) made all their money. No 5 ten baggers in a row per se but 5 multi baggers, in a row, rolling the entire stack forward each time (with leverage. Went from a few hundred k to >$10bn over 25yrs or something like that

@IterIntellectus There’s an extensive literature on altruistic behaviours. But to use a simplified example - why do people tip a cab driver at the end of the ride? You could just keep the cash and you’re likely never to meet them again.

why would anyone even press blue?!?

@ArturRehi What's the source of the 10% NPLs for the Russian banking system? To clarify, are you saying that Sberbank is also evergreening loans and on the verge of collapse? I'm curious as I know this bank very well.

russia’s banking sector is on the verge of collapse. Despite the statement by the director of marketing at the National Bureau of Credit Histories, Alexey Volkov, that the peak of growth in overdue retail loans has already passed, in reality banks are simply hiding 🧵

@lorenz_swen If Deutsche is to be believed, BVPS of $11.18 and you have to strip out $7.72 for YPF. So $3.46 BVPS. At $4.14 closing price Friday that’s 1.2X P/B. Fwiw, Bloomberg consensus ROE going forward is 10-11%. That doesn’t feel like deep value. Missing something?

@LT3000Lyall Interesting article, but the GP only receives carried interest at the time when the cash distribution is made to LPs. I’ve worked in PE and seen this. No carry on paper gains. NAVs are a joke though.

I have just published a new blog article: "Tertiary PE LP buyout funds scale new heights of absurdity" Link in appended tweet below. Cheers LT3000

@pati_marins64 @MJMBlackburn81 Is it too much to hope that oil price ends the war? In 2014 Russia started with Brent oil >$100 and stopped in Feb 2015 at ~$55. In 2022 started at >$100. Still going with Brent in $60s. But in a US recession scenario at $50-55 oil (or lower), it stops again?

Can strikes on Refineries and Sanctions Reverse the Situation? As @MJMBlackburn81 and I have demonstrated in this analysis, the Russians have invested over $1 trillion and still have the stamina for many more years of war: intellinews.com/marins-europe-… But how will the Russian economy fare in light of the recent Ukrainian attacks on their refineries and the new sanctions? Firstly, Ukrainian attacks still lack robust warheads and therefore pose less than a real threat to Russia’s refining capacity. Even if Ukraine manages to reduce Russian refining capacity by 20%, it would impact revenue by around $2-3 billion; with repairs, this could reach up to $5 billion. This is negligible compared to an investment that has already exceeded $1 trillion. I always come back to the same point: the West did not accurately foresee the scale of the conflict. The problem with Ukraine largely stems from the West’s lack of planning in rebuilding its basic industry for a long-term war, with heavier and more sustainable weaponry. I’ve addressed this issue several times, pointing out that the initial errors of Western allies were dismantling Ukraine’s industrial base. Another factor is the new sanctions. The Russians will do what they have been doing for years - evading restrictions in various ways, especially by using intermediaries. Russian sanctioned economy continue to grow more than most of Europe. This answers the question about the effectiveness of this model. Yes, it has a limit, but we believe they can hold it until 2028 with economic growth. The West has missed the window, and I’ve written about this. During the first year of the war, sanctions related to equipment and technology hit Russia hard. Most dual-use factories were shut down, and armored vehicles were left in open yards without components. But the West was overly confident and slow, allowing that opportunity to pass. Today, there is little that can be done.

@harshmadhusudan Coal tax is ~1% of Russian gvt revenues, so comparatively irrelevant and shouldn't be top left in any graphic. Oil & gas is ~30-32% of gvt revenue. Split is 80/20, so if you want to talk about impact on Russia's ability to fund the war, focus on the 80% (oil).

Who buys what and how much from Russia?

@jannibal_ Das ist korrekt, aber du musst auch zugeben: Wenn sich die geopolitischen Umstände radikal ändern, dann muss man die Politik anpassen – manchmal ebenso radikal. Andernfalls hat man als Politiker ebenso versagt.

Ich komme als politisch denkender Mensch immer noch *null* darauf klar, was für eine Woche der Demokratieverachtung hinter uns liegt. Die stärkste Partei, die die Regierung stellen soll, bricht einfach wenige Tage nach der Wahl mit ihrem zentralen Wahlversprechen, der Schuldenbremse, welche sie zuvor wochenlang und mantrahaft in der Öffentlichkeit verteidigte – und als Argument gegen andere Parteien nutzte. Dabei geht es um nicht weniger als die Verschuldung künftiger Generationen in Höhe einer Billion Euro – für Militär und Infrastruktur, was alles und nichts sein kann, aber in jedem Fall eine riesige finanzpolitische Pfadveränderung darstellt und irgendwie legitimiert werden müsste. Eine Billion, das ist eine Eins mit zwölf (!) Nullen, oder anders gesagt: das Ergebnis, wenn man eine Million (1.000.000) mit einer Million (1.000.000) multipliziert. Und um diese neuen Mega-Schulden aufzunehmen, will man im Schweinsgalopp den alten Bundestag zusammenbringen – im Wissen, dass diese Mehrheiten im neuen Bundestag nicht mehr zusammenkommen. Plötzlich sollen dutzende abgewählte Abgeordnete über eine zukunftsträchtige Weichenstellung abstimmen – und SPD und Grüne, die 13,5 Prozentpunkte bei der Wahl verloren haben, werden mit Formelkompromissen gefügig gemacht. Das wiederum führt dazu, dass der Wahlgewinner, die Union, einerseits zur Unkenntlichkeit entkernt wird (weil ihr Kompromisse abverlangt werden) – und andererseits plötzlich brutale Wahlverlierer zu Weichenstellern einer ach-so-staatspolitischen Amokfahrt werden lässt. Man kann das doch alles nicht rekapitulieren und zum Schluss kommen, dass das im Sinne von »Demokratie« ist, welche den Wählerwillen und die Entscheidung des Souveräns achtet. Was für eine Scharade.

@shashj Context, which seems to be missing from BBC piece: most water comes from wells. Source: Bloomberg.

@doomerzoomer Backing out net cash only reasonable if shareholders have some hope to claim it (via buybacks, divis or accretive deals) - Apple was really cheap on PE then did massive buybacks. Chinese techs sitting on tens of billions for many years & buybacks are small.

@Spreeathen1 Wenn du jung, fleißig & ehrgeizig bist, verstehe ich nicht, was du in Deutschland machst. Zieh in ein Land, in dem du mehr von dem behalten kannst, was du verdienst. Für mich war es Karibik und dann Dubai, aber es gibt andere Optionen.

Das traurige Schicksal junger Arbeitnehmer, die morgens brav zur Arbeit schreiten, sieht auch in den nächsten Jahren wie folgt aus: Ich darf die Rentenkasse finanzieren, obwohl ich weiß, dass ich selber nie eine Rente erhalten werde. Ich darf die seit einem Jahrzehnt andauernde illegale Einwanderung finanzieren, während die innere Sicherheit kollabiert und der öffentliche Raum sich islamisiert. Ich darf Radwege in Peru und Maßnahmen zur Energieeffizienz in marokkanischen Moscheen finanzieren, obwohl die Infrastruktur in Deutschland zerbröckelt und ganze Brücken einstürzen. Ich darf „Antirassismus“-Aktivisten finanzieren, die mir eintrichtern wollen, dass der alte weiße Mann die Schuld am Übel der Welt trägt. Ich darf Bürgergeldempfänger finanzieren, von denen fast die Hälfte gar keine Bürger sind. Ich darf ein Bildungssystem finanzieren, das Kindern schon in der Kita einreden will, man könne beliebig sein Geschlecht wechseln. Ich darf eine Politikerkaste finanzieren, die demokratiefeindliche Brandmauern hochzieht, um anschließend vor demokratiefeindlichen Tendenzen zu warnen. Und ich darf einen öffentlich-rechtlichen Rundfunk finanzieren, der seine Zuschauer mit fortlaufender Propaganda beschallt, während er eine zunehmende Radikalisierung in Teilen der Bevölkerung beklagt. Womit sich die Frage stellt: Wie innerlich leer muss man sein, um sich als junger Mensch, der eine Familie gründen und sich etwas aufbauen will, in dieser verzweifelten Lage und angesichts dieses absurd anmutenden Gesellschaftsvertrages nicht zu radikalisieren?

@FrankLuntz Sberbank, the largest bank in Russia with 48% market share, is showing a 16% average interest rate for their retail loan portfolio. That includes mortgages, credit cards, consumer loans. Pretty high but not 28%, so this article is cherry picking data.

Price increases in Russia this year 📈 • Potatoes: +73% • Butter: +30% • Inflation: +64% • Mortgage rates: 28% • Interest rates: 21% express.co.uk/news/world/197…

@FrankLuntz 1) I have some investments in Russia and inflation has definitely spiked, but 64% does not align with what I’ve heard. 2) Food is ~29% of household spend so potatoes & butter don’t tell the full story. 3) High interest rates is a sign of central bank controlling inflation.

@dampedspring You’re talking about short term moves in bonds. Short term moves in Treasuries are driven by Fed policy, not deficits. There isn’t much statistical correlation with deficit numbers as far as I have seen in short term.

How can you buy long term bonds. And for that matter USD. Coupons have to be increased on 7/31

@MebFaber Keep it simple: “You don’t have to swing at everything – you can wait for your pitch.” Taking a position on every opinion you have is a terrible. Must fight that instinct.

It's too long for the quote of the day, but great. One reason we tell people to just go halfsies and just buy (or sell) half the position size.... You diversify your pain!