Masters of Fintwit

@egr_investor @OptimizedPort AVGE would be better. You can just own the profitable ones and remove the unprofitable ones.

@OptimizedPort You sure VT isn’t Virginia Tech or Vermont?

$VT is the Vanguard Total World Stock ETF. It covers: • all countries • all sectors • all cap sizes • all styles ...and only costs 0.06%.

@EconomPic Note that other investors impact your returns in public markets too.

@MFintwit the fact other investors impact your returns makes the structure the problem

The current premium of private credit over public market equivalents is what created this problem given quarterly redemptions are capped. It incentives all investors to max withdrawal regardless of their long-term outlook or fundamentals. I figure there are 3 options 1) gate the funds 2) convert to a Closed-End Fund 3) sell their holdings to what actually transacts so can provide liquidity. Once the highest quality stuff is sold, guessing no way they pursue #3.

Just in case any one was wondering- this is exactly where he wants it. Balanced

@BullandBaird And…people will be dumber

@BullandBaird Tech workers think AI is going to take everyone’s job. Five years from now we will have full employment and slightly more productivity and more profitable companies.

But Silicon Valley told me we wont need lawyers anymore?

@wealthMAinsider I raised fees on all my clients. Everyone signed. No objections or even a hint of a problem.

Advisor fees are not going down

@EconomPic If there’s less money coming into the space, supply shrinks, spreads widen. Honestly- I hope the tourists leave, the sooner the better

@EconomPic This is evident in BREIT as they were not able to deploy new capital during liquidation, where there were other private REITs with new new assets able to buy, which should have impacted future returns. Clearly, though, it has not

@EconomPic If I was an existing shareholder I’d be pissed they gave 11%. The problem isn’t even the structure per se, it’s the other investors you are with.

@MFintwit x.com/LeylaKuni/stat…

@DanielLDavis1 No troops. Drones with facial recognition and guns

Why is it so hard for US politicians to "rule anything in or out" when it comes to US troops on the ground in the Iran War? It's not that hard, folks. The answer is 100% 'no.' Look at the topographical map below and note the virtually impregnable *series* of mountain ranges along the entire Western side of the country. Note, too, the green, level terrain of Iraq to the west, and realize that when I was part of the US invasion force into Iraq in 1991 (and the US coalition in 2003), we were able to drive into Iraq from friendly countries, over level terrain, where the defending force had nowhere to hide or defend from. Iran, in contrast, is built for defense. We simply do not have the number of troops in our entire ground forces that could be mustered to make such an attack, and even if we foolishly did order them in, they would be defeated in the many mountainous ridges and valleys that give decisive advantage to the defending force. In short, yes, reject any idea of a ground invasion of Iran. It would be suicidal, and on par with Hitler's fatal decision to invade the USSR in September 1941. It would result in the destruction of the American empire.

@EconomPic What’s funny is that neither of those companies were Private credit

Did we learn anything from the GFC other than lenders are more than happy to make loans if it will earn them a larger bonus? wsj.com/finance/the-bl…

@jonfavs It is when it’s illegal.

This billionaire thinks that asking people who make over a million dollars to pay an income tax is a "dystopian and malevolent scheme."

Have to the weigh the difference between aspirational risk and market risks. For tech workers, you only leave what is excess in RSU’s where you don’t jeopardize your other goals. I make people sell up to a certain amount. If the employee has a high conviction- I let them take the risk if they want. But, it’s a lot to tie up both your human capital and financial capital in the same company. Has probably failed more people than helped.

I practice what I preach. I’ve sold all at vest for every single RSU that I’ve received and re-allocated to a diversified equity portfolio.

Imagine ignoring the rational default for most people, sell at vest, because you think you know better than the market, then choosing to concentrate your financial capital in the exact same company that already determines your human capital. Elite diversification strategy. Also, vested RSUs usually aren’t “locked up.” Once they vest, they’re just stock in your brokerage account. And if you already paid tax at vest, any decline after that can generally be realized as a capital loss when you sell. #Investing #Finance #Tech #PersonalFinance #FinancialLiteracy

@cullenroche Sequencing risk in an LDI portfolio is reduced to almost nothing. You also don’t have to use a constant proportion portfolio, rebalance for risk, and therefore save money on taxes and allow for compounding at a higher rate.

I created a tool to visualize your sequence risk in a portfolio. We talk a lot about the "efficient frontier", but the EF turns investing into a performance chasing and alpha optimization problem. The average investor doesn't care about this (and most active managers can't find it in the first place). The average investor wants to know their TEMPORAL risks across the portfolio. "When can I pay for X?" The Defined Duration Frontier flips the conversation from one about portfolio optimization to sequence risk mitigation thereby helping people understand how their asset allocation actually helps them understand the temporal risks within the portfolio.

Sequencing risk in an LDI portfolio is reduced to almost nothing. You also don’t have to use a constant proportion portfolio, rebalance for risk, and therefore save money on taxes and allow for compounding at a higher rate.

😂…for all the talk of BX redemptions….no one is talking about the 2 billion + in capital raised for private credit Do people only get famous by having negative takes?

@kshaughnessy2 @SpecialSitsNews Stress and redemptions are too different things. Loan losses are below historic averages. The job of the asset manager is to provide limited liquidity and protect the shareholders that want to be in the fund long term

@SpecialSitsNews But it’s “isolated”

5 EXAMPLES OF RECENT PRIVATE CREDIT REDEMPTIONS What we are seeing now is the very beginning of the forced selling acceleration in private credit. As the 5 cases below show, most investors and allocators never expected fire sales from the largest private credit funds in the world, like Cliffwater ( $CCLFX manages $33 billion). $BLK BlackRock Inc. capped withdrawals from its $26 billion HPS Corporate Lending Fund at 5% after investors sought to cash in nearly double that amount. Last quarter, an $Ares Management Corp. fund met redemptions of about 5.6%, in one of the first examples of how a firm would address requests that slightly exceed a tender offer. According to BBG, the move by BlackRock may give others cover to do the same, as some executives argue that accommodating every redemption request could have deeper risks, including diverting capital from new deals and burdening longer-term investors. Michael Paulus, the founder of PCM Encore, a private wealth manager that invests in private markets funds, called Blackstone’s decision a “highly strategic” long-term one for the firm in this time of heightened anxiety. Recent “redemption stress” examples this quarter: 1) Cliffwater Corporate Lending Fund (CCLFX) – interval fund (~$33bn AUM): press reports indicate redemption requests >7% vs the typical 5% quarterly repurchase feature, implying proration / gating risk and/or asset sales to fund liquidity. This caused $1 billion of forced sales. 2) Blackstone BCRED $BX (~$82bn): investors requested 7.9% of shares (above the typical 5% quarterly cap). Reporting indicates Blackstone increased the repurchase to 7% and used additional capital to satisfy the remainder. 3) BlackRock / HPS Corporate Lending Fund (HLEND, ~$26bn): investors requested ~9.3%, but the fund limited repurchases to its 5% quarterly cap (about $620m), a textbook demonstration of “semi-liquid” gating. 4) Blue Owl $OBDC II: $OWL the firm ended quarterly redemptions and instead shifted to return-of-capital distributions funded by asset sales/repayments, alongside a disclosed $1.4bn asset sale across funds. 5) $OBDC II secondary tender dynamics: outside investors launched a discounted tender offer for OBDC II shares, highlighting the emergence of a secondary “exit price” materially below reported NAV.

Interval funds seem like a better option because there are no sub docs, but I’d rather have an operations hurdle to redeem

@negligible_cap @MonocleMan1 300 software loans….1 default. Brought the negative earning company public and made money on the equity. Terrible underwriting standards 😂

This is a real slide from Blue Owl’s marketing materials. While it reads like satire, it sadly isn’t. The strategy? Lend to growing SAAS companies with some degree of ARR even if they have negative cash flow or EBITDA And people wonder why $OWL is down 40% YTD. Their underwriting standards are total garbage.