MJ33Wx

@MarcWeinbergWX Yes, there is a burn going on down there.

There appears to be a light smoke plume showing up on radar near West Point / Fort Knox. Anyone will eyes on this area?

@Vinceuk01 I'll put in more requests...

@MJ33Wx Today’s weather is absolutely perfect 😎 More of this

I'm not attempting to play down the threat by any means. However, I've been through plenty of these setups over the last 30 years to see failure models that occur often. Given the setup, threat is there for high winds, but the threat does dampen with eastern extent. #kywx

SPC always accounts for spillover in the category areas. If the line becomes elevated, I think we would more likely see widespread 50-55 mph winds with a few 60-70+ reports in there. However, the highest risk of 65-70+ mph winds will likely remain west of I-65. #kywx

With regards to the Sunday night severe, I think the risk levels are appropriately placed. However, things do get a bit murky in the I-65 corridor and points east. #kywx

@wxstorm18 @cpinney998 @MarcWeinbergWX Because day 1 and day 2 outlooks go back to the 50/60s, they existed before the internet. They are still intended for internal NWS guidance and forecast coordination. Same for AFD's from local offices. In the 90s, everything just got ported to the internet.

@cpinney998 @MarcWeinbergWX If it wasn't meant for the public why is the website public where anybody can see the risk on their website

The season is still young and we are getting a lot of people complaining about the new SPC "CIG" system. The hatched really used to have meaning and raise awareness. Now, we are hearing that it is causes a huge amount of confusion and is being "spammed" everywhere. Why change something that was working well? What a mess.

@WX_Marker RRFS exists with a FV3 core, but yes, it is going to MPAS core. Most NCEP models will be moving to MPAS cores for a unified model system. NAM will eventually get retired, but not sure on date.

@MJ33Wx I thought RRFS was based off MPAS? Is the NAM still expected to be discontinued soon?

In reference to the day 3 outlook for 3/11/2026. I have seen an uptick in social media posts utilizing the RRFS for convective forecasting. It's not a model that I would use (1/2) #kywx

I have been involved in evaluating these models in the hazardous weather testbed where we compared them to the MPAS cores. Again, MPAS was way better, but the RRFS initialization is pretty good. Just tends to go off the rails later in the run.

First off, you should never use forecast composite reflectivity for convective forecasting. Second, most people do not realize that the FV3 core overdevelops convection badly. MPAS cores are WAY better. (2/2) #kywx

@2024yesyes Composite reflectivity can be a good indicator of storm mode. However using to to diagnose where convection will fire or its eventual evolution is not recommended.

@MJ33Wx Is there a problem with using composite reflectivity just to get a general idea on where storms could develop and what the storm mode could be, but not using it as what will happen?

@StillwaterMet @spann @MissAshes92 @jamesaydelott @WeatherNation @weatherchannel @foxweather If the calls are numerous enough and affect forecast/warning operations, it would violate federal law. 43 CFR 423.22. Broadly parts A,C, E5.

Asking for some help please from anyone. @spann @MissAshes92 @jamesaydelott @WeatherNation @weatherchannel @foxweather Spread the word that calling (on phone) NWS offices with radar interpretation only adds to the fog of an already dynamic situation. Speaking for myself.

@garrityv_t Yeah, when the PV gets stretched out like a football in an east/west direction, cold isn't coming back for a while.

@MJ33Wx Ouch my god

Looking at the latest MJO forecasts, the orbit from phase 4/5 to phase 6/7 would result in a warm/wet pattern for the Ohio Valley. Dynamical models are on this already. Local river flooding will become a problem. Probably will see some severe wx threats as well. #kywx

@Vinceuk01 We can some nice weather his weekend!

@MJ33Wx I’ve had enough!,75 and sunny, let’s go!

@garrityv_t There is speculation that we may have another strat warm event. This could displace or poke the PV. If comes back over to the western hemisphere, that would be helpful.

@MJ33Wx Polar voterx will help too

Now, despite the MJO going into phase 6/7 in March, while the overall average of temps/precip should be above normal, I still think we'll see a strong flux in temps before and after fronts coming through. Some wintry wx is possible, but time is fading. #kywx

For a colder pattern, you need to be in phase 2/3. If the pulse were to continue through phase 7/8 in late March, and get into phase 1/2/3 in April, that would result in a colder pattern going into April. #kywx