Mustansar Ali

Zero reform: Over the past four years, Pakistan’s debt and liabilities have grown from Rs55 trillion to Rs85 trillion. That’s Rs7.5 trillion a year, Rs625 billion a month and Rs20 billion a day – a 55 per cent increase in four years. Imagine: every day, the government adds the cost of the Islamabad-Peshawar Motorway – without building one. Hard truth: Debt is rising. Assets are not. That is not economics. That is zero reform. Over the past four years, the power sector’s circular debt has grown from Rs2.2 trillion to Rs3.2 trillion. That’s Rs250 billion a year, Rs20 billion a month and Rs700 million a day – a 45 per cent increase in four years. Imagine: every day, the system generates liabilities without generating efficiency. Losses are not reduced. Recoveries are not improved. Theft is not contained. Capacity is paid for, but not utilised. This is not a power sector. This is a debt factory. Plain fact: Electricity is being produced. Debt is being accumulated. Zero reform. Over the past four years, Pakistan has carried over 110 state-owned enterprises on its balance sheet. Together, they hold liabilities exceeding Rs30 trillion. Every year, they lose roughly Rs800 billion to Rs1 trillion. Every year, the government injects cash, issues guarantees, or absorbs losses. Pakistan Railways runs, but does not recover. Steel Mills does not produce, but still consumes. The reality: Assets exist. Cashflows do not. This is not ownership. This is accumulation of loss. Zero reform. Pakistan’s federal and four provincial governments together operate a fleet of 85,500 vehicles. The UK government runs on 86. The Government of Pakistan spends roughly Rs114 billion a year on fuel. That’s Rs9.5 billion a month, Rs30 crore per day. Engines run. Costs accumulate. No productivity is created. This is not mobility. Imagine: The state burns Rs30 crore a day to move itself – not the economy. Zero reform. Four years ago, exports were $32 billion. They are under $30 billion now. No new sector has emerged. No value chain has been upgraded. The same textiles. The same markets. The same constraints. Plain fact: The world is moving up the value chain. Pakistan is not. This is not trade policy. This is drift. Zero reform. Over the past four years, Pakistan’s interest payments have surged from around Rs3 trillion to over Rs7-8 trillion a year. That’s over Rs600 billion a month. More than half of federal revenue is now consumed by debt servicing. Development shrinks. Fiscal space disappears. Cold truth: Revenue is collected. Interest is paid. Growth is deferred. This is not budgeting. This is entrapment. Zero reform. Over the past four years, Pakistan’s pension liabilities have grown from Rs450 billion to Rs900 billion. That’s Rs112 billion a year, Rs9 billion a month and Rs300 million a day – a 100 per cent increase in four years. Red alert: The pension bill has doubled. The system has not changed. That is not sustainability. That is drift. Zero reform. National debt, the power sector, SOEs, the state carpool, interest payments, the pension bill – multiple sectors, one pattern. Costs rise. Output stalls. Liabilities compound. The meter keeps running. Zero reform.

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