Mac Naab
191 posts
Mac Naab
@MacNaab24601
I am a business owner, I invest mostly in adtech companies and AI because I use it myself to run my business.
Katılım Aralık 2024
65 Takip Edilen25 Takipçiler
That decline in $ZETA did not last very long, even though most of SaaS is still down big on the $IBM earnings collapse.
Is the market finally starting to differentiate AI winners and AI losers in software?
x.com/ASchulz888/sta…
Andreas Schulz@ASchulz888
Call me crazy, but $ZETA should be up on the $IBM news, not down. Dollars flowing from legacy tech to AI is a good and necessary thing for AI winners. And $ZETA is one of the clearest AI winners in the whole stock market.
English
@wealthmatica $ZETA : 33%
$MELI : 17%
$NBIS : 13%
$AXON : 11%
Really wonder why nobody was talking about $AXON below 400$.
English
Portfolio:
1. $ZETA: 38%
2. $NBIS: 16%
3. $META: 11%
4. $APP: 8%
These are my top four positions.
English
@mvcinvesting I like to look at the stock price it's like reading a newspaper. It tells a lot about what people are thinking
Just today $ZETA was -5% and went back up to +2-3%.
$NOW was down 7% and is still down 4%.
The market is starting to sort software stock out
English
Too many people call themselves long-term investors, yet spend their days glued to minute-by-minute price action.
English
@wealthmatica With a price to sale of 6 that would be a 100$ stock
English
Compounder.
I'm modelling a 27.2% CAGR through 2030.
$ZETA
English
@wealthmatica I use Google for ads and performance max as a similar CAPI with partial attribution etc... .
And I don't know anyone that uses google ads that likes the performance max CAPI.
So I wouldn't bet too much on Netflix's if even google's is bad.
English
On $NFLX
I’m very curious to hear managements comments on how their ad business is performing.
Last quarter, they rolled out their conversion API (CAPI).
This allowed for third-party DSPs to accurately attribute conversions coming from $NFLX programmatic placement.
Management seems quite happy with the growth rate prior to the integration…
“We’ve doubled our ads revenue year-over-year last year. We expect to double it again this year, so that should give you a sense of the slope of monetization growth that we’re on.” (Q425 call)
– Greg Peters, CEO, $NFLX
As I modelled below previously…
With a 40% CAGR plotted out to 2030, $NFLX ad revenues surpass that of $DIS’s current forecast.
I expect bullish sentiment from management on the performance of the ad platform since the deployment of the CAPI.
Wealthmatica@wealthmatica
Netflix Ads v. Disney Ads This is actually quite easy for $NFLX to do… I plotted out their Ad revenues with a 40% CAGR. Impressive! $NFLX
English
@ariaradnia It's not an underated bear thesis. That's one of the many reasons I didn't invest in $ADBE.
I can see the push by $META and $GOOG to have the creative in house.
Anyone that runs ads online is seeing it.
English
Underrated bear thesis for $ADBE
$APP / $META making 1-click campaigns with AI, immediately rendering a subset of advertisers to never even touch the creative
That said, this does skew SMB so I'm not particularly worried
English
@fivepointscap I think people underestimate the fact it's a centralized media business compared to decentralized Media business like Instagram or YouTube.
Centralized business overtime become less and less efficient at catering to their customers, as they grow larger and larger.
English
For the record, I don’t think $NFLX is an amazing buy or deep value or anything like that. I also have some concerns about their moat and younger generations not watching movies, etc.
All I’m saying is that it shouldn’t be valued like a cyclical, which it clearly is right now based on the growth, quality, etc. High quality defensives growing 15% don’t trade at 20x earnings
Five Points Capital@fivepointscap
I think $NFLX should be viewed as a high quality staple. People pay their Netflix bill regardless of their financial situation. There’s an old saying that people pay their cable bill before their mortgage. That $20/mo isn’t gonna make a big difference financially but it gives you something to look forward to. They shouldn’t need to be growing 15% to sustain a 20x multiple. Many high quality staples trade at 25x+ with basically no growth. High margin, high ROIC, decent moat, defensive cash flows, growing 15% should be trading 30x+ and if that 15% drops to 5-10% it’s still undervalued imo
English
@profpicsou @AxelPariss Faire rouler (Roll) : Si tu veux garder l'argent plus longtemps, tu passes un nouvel ordre combiné juste avant l'échéance. Tu rachètes ta boîte actuelle (ce qui rembourse le prêt) et tu en vends simultanément une nouvelle avec une échéance plus lointaine.
Français
@profpicsou @AxelPariss À la date de fin, tu as deux options simples :
Rembourser : Le règlement du SPX se fait en cash. Les options expirent, la chambre de compensation (OCC) prélève automatiquement les 10 000 $ sur ton compte pour clôturer la position. Ton prêt est soldé.
Français
Je repose la question :
Crédits Lombard : à partir de quel montant et quel patrimoine ça devient vraiment intéressant ?
Pour ceux qui en ont déjà souscrit un ou qui, comme moi, sont en train de se renseigner : je cherche à comprendre les seuils concrets.
À partir de quel montant de patrimoine (actions, ETF, obligations…) les banques privées ou les gestionnaires de fortune accordent-ils un crédit Lombard ?
Et surtout, à partir de quelle taille ça devient réellement intéressant (frais, taux, LTV, rentabilité du levier) ?
Personnellement, je ne suis pas encore éligible. Je pense ne pas avoir le montant nécessaire pour l’instant, mais je me renseigne pour anticiper et mieux préparer la suite.
Si vous avez déjà franchi le cap ou si vous êtes en pleine étude : vos retours concrets m’intéressent énormément.
Français
@AxelPariss @profpicsou C'est compliqué pour ceux qui n'ont jamais utilisé des options mais sinon ce n'est pas si difficile à faire.
Français
@MacNaab24601 @profpicsou +1 le box spread est très smart mais reste un mecasnime financier avancé 😅
Français
@profpicsou Le box spread ce fait en général sur le SPX. Ça permet de créer un prêt synthétique, en vendant simultanément 4 options (2 puts et 2 calls) qui s'annulent entre eux. On obtient du cash immédiatement et a l'échéance on rembourse avec un spread équivalent à des intérêts très bas.
Français
@Kaneshiro1960 It's at sea and hanging. Of course it's going to shake with the waves.
English
@EndicottInvests Why do you hold $NVDA stock? I would think that $NBIS is by itself a bet on $NVDA already.
At least it's my humble opinion.
English