Macronacci
1.3K posts
@Macronacci @garyblack00 this 💯
the permabears think an overpriced IPO means it'll just crash and burn
I'm actually quite sure it'll grow into this valuation and well beyond ... in time
I'm staying the hell away from the IPO though
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Not that interested in $SPCX. I don’t know of any $2T market cap companies that trade at 300x EBiTDA. Given all the hype, likely to be way overpriced. Will be more interested after it falls by 50%.
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“I think space will be the new AI by 2027,” says @WalterIsaacson as @SpaceX prepares its IPO.
cnb.cx/4dzw20C
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Walter Isaacson in new interview: "Space will be the new AI by 2027; SpaceX has huge amounts of revenues, including $1.25B a month from Anthropic. I've got Starlink on my phone. The potential for near to medium term revenue is much higher than you made it sound like in your question."
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@TeslaBoomerMama The public markets aren’t built to price SpaceX. Pre IPO: honeymoon, hype, almost no float - recipe for an extreme valuation. Guessing ~$1T around year-end. $20–30T eventually, likely a 10+ year ride. Not selling any TSLA…
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🚀
SpaceX - Governance #12
Caution: I’m going very wild here — lots of speculation ahead.
This builds directly on my earlier article: x.com/TeslaBoomerMam…
In post #11 I laid out the lock-up schedule for early SpaceX investors and why it suddenly matters a lot for index funds. The structure is clearly designed to give passive funds a smoother on-ramp while protecting the company from an immediate share flood.
Key dates when “fresh stock” can hit the market (assuming IPO priced June 11 → first trade June 12, 2026)
- Late July 2026 (after Q2 earnings) → up to 30% can unlock (20% base + possible extra 10% if stock trades ≥30% above IPO price)
- Aug 21 → +7%
- Sep 10 → +7%
- Sep 25 → +7%
- Oct 12 → +7%
- After Q3 2026 earnings → up to additional 28%
- Oct 25 → +7%
- Dec 9 → all remaining Early Release Eligible Shares
At the rumored $1.75 trillion market cap and only $75 billion offered, the initial public float is just ~4.3%.
During the first ~15 trading days (until around July 6–7), there is no additional liquidity beyond the IPO shares themselves. That is exactly when SpaceX becomes eligible for Nasdaq-100, FTSE Russell, and CRSP inclusion.
The first meaningful increase in “fresh stock” from early investors does not arrive until late July 2026 (after Q2 earnings). Even then, the three major indices (Nasdaq-100, FTSE Russell, CRSP) only adjust their float weights at the next quarterly rebalance in September 2026.
So index funds will start buying in in June up to early July with an extremely low ~4.3% float, and the full benefit of the extra liquidity will only show up weeks later in September.
S&P 500 inclusion is even further out but potentially the major event:
On April 30, 2026, S&P Dow Jones Indices launched a consultation on special rules for MegaCap companies (SpaceX qualifies at $1.75 tn). The proposal would shorten the seasoning period from 12 months to 6 months, waive the minimum 10% public float (IWF) requirement, and drop the profitability test.
If approved (consultation closes May 28 and could take effect as early as June 8), SpaceX could become eligible for S&P 500 consideration around December 2026 — by which time the public float will have increased substantially thanks to the July 30% release, the multiple 7% staged releases, the Q3 earnings release, and the final December 9 release of all remaining Early Release Eligible Shares.
Bottom line on timing:
The passive buying impact would likely be spread over three distinct moments in 2026:
- End of June / early July → Nasdaq-100, FTSE Russell, and CRSP inclusion (limited by the tiny initial float)
- September → rebalance with the now-higher float for those three indices
- December → potential S&P 500 inclusion with much larger available float
And don’t forget the wildcard: if a hypothetical Merger of Equals with Tesla happens, S&P would simply "overwrite" Tesla and add the surviving combined entity at deal close. Index funds wouldn’t have to sell Tesla and wait — they would mechanically buy the additional SpaceX shares issued to Tesla shareholders. The transition would be seamless and bring meaningful passive buying support much earlier.
In my article (link above) I quantified the float impact as follows:
AleXandra Merz 🇺🇲@TeslaBoomerMama
🚀 SpaceX - Governance #11 Lock Up periods for early investors Exact Lock-Up Terms from the May 20, 2026 S-1 The lock-up conditions are described in the Underwriting section and cross-referenced in “Shares Eligible for Future Sale.” 1. Standard 180-Day Lock-Up Who: The Company, all directors, and all executive officers. Duration: 180 days after the date of the prospectus. What is restricted: They cannot sell, transfer, pledge, hedge, or enter into any transaction that transfers the economic ownership of any shares of Class A common stock (or securities convertible into/exercisable for Class A common stock). 2. Extended 366-Day Lock-Up (Founder + Major Investors) Who: Elon — 100% of his shares. And certain significant pre-IPO investors. Duration: 366 days after the date of the prospectus. Scope: Covers a very large block of shares (the S-1 leaves the exact number blank but states it represents a substantial percentage of outstanding shares). Only these "certain pre-IPO investors" do have this Early Release Provision, all that follows only applies to them: A portion of the shares subject to the 366-day lock-up can be released automatically on the following schedule (these do NOT apply to Elon's shares): The exact staged schedule, trying to put it in chronological order, but take it with a grain of salt: - After Q2 2026 earnings release → up to 20% (plus possible extra 10% if stock price is ≥30% above IPO price) (second half of July?) - 70 days after offering → up to 7% (Aug 21?) - 90 days → up to 7% (Sep 10?) - 105 days → up to 7% (Sep 25?) - 120 days → up to 7% (Oct 12?) - After Q3 2026 earnings release → up to additional 28% - 135 days → up to 7% (Oct 26?) - At 180 days → all remaining Early Release Eligible Shares (Dec 9?) Important note: Elon is explicitly not subject to any of these early-release provisions. 4. General Exceptions and Other Details The lock-up agreements contain customary exceptions (e.g., gifts to family, transfers to trusts, etc.), but any transferee must usually agree to be bound by the same restrictions. The underwriters (led by Goldman Sachs) can waive or release any portion of the lock-up at their discretion. Any early release or waiver must generally be applied pro-rata across holders. These lock-up terms are the standard protective mechanism used in almost every IPO to prevent a flood of shares hitting the market immediately after listing. Will TRY to address what this means for the index inclusions in post #11 Page 222+ (pdf) of the S-1 filing: sec.gov/Archives/edgar…
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@stevenmarkryan Wall Street isn’t built to price SpaceX. Honeymoon, hype, almost no float - recipe for an extreme valuation. Guessing ~$1T around year end. $20–30T eventually, but that’s a 10+ year ride… Not selling a single TSLA.
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If you want an indication of how big the SpaceX IPO is in terms of impact & significance, it can be directly measured by the level of unhinged and deranged haters in the comments.
Spoiler: there are many, and they are losing it.
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S & X will forever be in my heart
Tesla@Tesla
The legacy of Model S & X will live on in our vision for autonomy
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After nearly 18 years I can stop working on Model S and X. We put so much love into these products, but will continue to pour that into the future products. Thanks to everyone who believed in and supported these cars through the years. We strived for the best and will never stop. Saying goodbye to something great and making room for something even greater!
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My SpaceX-Tesla Strategy
I will not sell a single share of Tesla stock to acquire shares of SpaceX during its Initial Public Offering (IPO).
Based on fundamental data, SpaceX is currently significantly overvalued; and although the company appears highly attractive from a long-term perspective, it will take years for it to grow into its current valuation.
Mayor revenue and profit income is years away and while I have no doubt in the success its a question of opportunity costs.
It is also highly probable that SpaceX stock will prove to be extremely volatile like Tesla and that excellent buying opportunities will arise further down the road so there is no reason to rush.
Tesla, on the other hand, is currently significantly undervalued. In the short to medium term, I anticipate an appreciation in the stock price as massive cash flow and profit levers are about to unlock.
My strategy, therefore, is not to sell a single share of Tesla, as doing so at this moment and time would be a bad deal. $tsla $SPCX
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It's time to pass the CLARITY Act, to ensure US technology dominance for decades to come. 🇺🇸
Chris Dixon@cdixon
The Senate Banking Committee released the latest draft of the CLARITY Act last night. The draft has significantly improved since January and reflects years of bipartisan negotiations. It’s time to get this passed. This bill safeguards consumers, includes important developer protections, and gives crypto entrepreneurs the regulatory clarity they need to build here in the U.S. We’re thankful for the hard work of the Senate Banking Committee and their staff. We urge Senators on both sides to move quickly to advance it out of Committee, to the Senate floor, and ultimately be signed into law by the President.
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Since $TSLA bottomed in 2023, every break above the downtrend has led to higher highs.
Consolidation is likely over.
Any questions?
$TSLA
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Rather than buying $TSLA low now, i’m going to wait until they have thousands of Robotaxis and are scaling quickly. Then I will buy at the top.
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@BuschEbba @vonderleyen_epp Please stop the Swedish unions blockade of EV charger build out. This is madness and it should not be allowed to happen.
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In the largest disruption to global energy supplies in modern history, Sweden stands stronger than most. 🇸🇪 🇪🇺
When Ursula von der Leyen points to Sweden, Europe should listen.
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$TSLA sold off on the increased capex comments. It should have traded up because it supports the company’s long-term vision:
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$TSLA just exploded!
+5% after absolutely crushing Q1 2026 earnings expectations!
@Tesla is cooking on another level, AGAIN!
When will you learn? Never bet against @elonmusk
Source: TheTradingView
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal
Tesla turned your phone into a mechanic. A diagnostic tool. Just take a pic. Tesla Assist looks at it and gives you the answer. Real next steps. Not generic… your actual car, your actual problem. It even tells you what to do next. All inside the app. That’s smart. @Tesla
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