cultured boar

SpaceX cannot pay a reasonable premium for the breakout that a lot of investors are holding Tesla for I'm not holding a stock this volatile for a measly 30% premium, I hold it because I think it can reach $1000 (3T valuation) or more in a reasonable timeframe In the merge scenario, we get a single entity at ~3T+ and it pushes back the "breakout" date by at least 5y because SpaceX will take at least that long to be worth the IPO valuation let alone more than that, and any cashflows Tesla generates get drowned in the infinite money abyss that is xAI and space-based datacenters

@PresMcCormack @Teslaconomics this is the sensible way to go

@Teslaconomics The stock price is wildly expensive for a company that has the potential to be the most impactful over the next 30 years. I am going to wait till the lock up periods are all done to buy. I will set a monthly allocation and dollar cost average into it for 3-4 years.

Just curious… do you think SpaceX is overvalued at $2T?

@Teslaconomics obviously will grow into the valuation in time, in 5y there may be room to go even higher short term? lol

The more I sit with the SpaceX IPO and the reality of broader AI megacap companies delaying decisions to go public, the more I'm reminded the game really is rigged against the smaller, everyday retail investor I totally understand why these companies wait to go public, but that's part of why the system is broken. Back in the 1990s, the average company was 5 years old at IPO. Fast forward to today, and the average company age is ~12 years at IPO The explosive growth at these companies happens while the company is private, and only accredited investors, VCs, employees and institutions participate in these moves This doesn't even touch on the fact that the private markets now represent ~8% of the S&P 500 market cap, which is up from just 2.2% in 2015. The number of publicly listed companies is down 50% over the past few decades, shutting retail out even further This isn't an indictment on SpaceX or any other company, but rather a reminder that if you want to play the game at the highest level, you need to understand the rules of the game

@West_Granthc Are you assuming I already am long? Because I wouldn't assume a rallye at the start, and going long at IPO is exactly what I won't do, you can't trim the top if you went in at the top? Or do a short? I'm not getting it sorry🥲

@wiseboar7 If your goal is to buy SpaceX at a 50% discount, trimming on strength is your best friend. Force yourself to shave 10% off the top whenever your long positions get hyper-extended. When the macro cliff comes, you'll have pure, un-leveraged cash ready to scoop up the wreckage.

Not that interested in $SPCX. I don’t know of any $2T market cap companies that trade at 300x EBiTDA. Given all the hype, likely to be way overpriced. Will be more interested after it falls by 50%.

... and now, right now, we have morons screaming to merge into something where every single revenue driver that gets then to at least a hundred billion a year (i.e. what Tesla is doing even BEFORE robotaxi) is 3-5 years out so thank you but no thank you I don't need IPO shares where lockups expire timed to index inclusions to make damn sure the little man cannot trick the system again after the Tesla S&P500 institutional disaster, with a senseless unsupported random squeeze. You think institutions haven't learned? That they are stupid boomers who just "buy the local bank's fund"? Everything is lined up to make this smooth for institutions to grab what they require, a stable environment where they won't get screwed, then the lockups expire and all of sudden there's financials and the explosion that everyone used to laugh at because the local paper just printed "SpaceX Rocket blew up lol" without even mentioning it being a test article. But you will care now, because the stock took a nosedive because of those news, the average NPC is part of the trade now. And people gotta consume their news no matter how often blatant lies are told on these shows. But they will influence those NPC behaviors into volatile stock fun where these people are milked for their emotional weakness and kept in the permanent underclass Have fun people, I might finally decide to follow this in the other direction for a bit

How is getting the IPO price ... the same everyone else is paying ... with a TWO TRILLION valuation, the largest in history, our "shot" at anything but being the dumping ground for a 10x-in-a-year private stock The upside is 5-10y out at this valuation, you people should really learn about Elon Time. Orbital Datacenters - absolutely, makes a ton of sense. Launch cost have to be reasonable though (if there is something like a reasonable price in the AI money apocalypse). Starship has to fly hundreds of times to make financial sense. That's achievable but it will take time. The direction is awesome but I just don't believe there'll be a SORA AI cluster in space before 2029 at the earliest - and SOTA cluster size is trending up. It's a 2030 story Starlink is growing very nicely and will surely capture very large markets but I don't care about the notion of having "the whole world as TAM" if there have been REPEATET STATEMENTS that Starlink with it's spot size will not compete in urban environments as it's plain easier and cheaper to set up a couple of transmitters on the ground and you're done. So high revenue for sure, just not "omg Trillions" AI is a beast and will eat through loads of stuff, but as high as the aspirations are, there's a real world aspect to getting it into companies and being productive in between humans. Full AI companies will happen in time, but there's an in between state where integrations happen ... and that will take time (speaking from my professional experience). So xAI will make loads of money but even AI will not eat everything within a few months, it'll be another decade of integrations. And at the end of that process (another decade?) the end result will make money mostly obsolete so both really something I want to wait for Terrafab, already a JV with Tesla, is a cool project to push the chip industry along, and I'm very much reminded of battery day and 200GWh single like battery machines. And while this project is up and running, those production goals turned out to be very aspirational and also guided other battery makers to be a bit more aggressive about building out new supply. So yeah Terrafab, large investment, let's eat the world"s chip industry. Cool, will produce chips, will be real and a competitor. And I bet it'll turn out to take a bit longer, and produce a bit less than targeted and it's a good business but not transformational Starship will unlock loads of stuff, but as we've all been watching, building large infrastrukture just to build them, vs what needs to be built up to unlock things like asteroid mining and space tourism ... yes that stuff is coming but not in 5 years, more like 15 all of these things are really cool and awesome, really, but currently revenues and non-existent profits (*couph xAI money pit*), even with an insane IPO cash grab, I don't see the stock doing much for the next 3-5 years and I'm already stretched thin on a 6y Tesla Investment that seems to finally shift into the gear I saw in 2019, the robotaxi gear with an existing market that's so absolutely poised to explode with an INSANE difficulty curve for developing it, yes that kind. But who knows with these things, when they launched last year and certainly wasn't expecting 39 unsupervised robotaxis after a damn year. After a decade of Elon's promises we are now finally very close indeed

BREAKING: We’ve heard something highly unusual about how the SpaceX IPO allocation may work. Retail investors may get something Wall Street almost never gives them: A real shot. @bradsferguson breaks it down. 👇

@JonathanGuito Perfect summary💯

Lower than it would on its own for a long time!

@West_Granthc Could you elaborate on those strategies? Sounds interesting (I so feel like a bot right now🙈)

@wiseboar7 Exact same issue with high IV you end up funding the option sellers. If a 50% drawdown is on the table, trimming on strength or scaling into inverse ETFs is a much cleaner hedge.

I may buy SPCX puts (even though I love the company) but I expect the premiums will be insane so it might be too risky - depends in market I'm sticking with my Tesla strategy (hold for another 3-4y) Main shift from start of this year is just that I won't participate in the SpaceX IPO. If there's a significant selloff over the next year (myself I'm expecting a 50% drawdown), then yes I'll probably buy some shares then

@wiseboar7 Are you planning to keep adjusting your views with the market, or stick to your original strategy?

@unusual_whales 5y+ of massive growth completely priced in, 10y if timelines slip (which they probably will) typical 2026 IPO retail is a dumping ground nowadays

BREAKING: SpaceX targets June 12 IPO on Nasdaq under $SPCX at $1.75T valuation. Musk holds 85.1% voting power as CEO, CTO, and Chairman. Q1 revenue hits $4.69B with $4.28B net loss

@B3nL1pman @BoringBiz_ Amazon didn't IPO at TWO TRILLION DOLLARS BRO

@BoringBiz_ Their cash flow is all going into capex so that’s not really fair. They could stop launching satellites or building AI and have great earnings but less growth. Amazon was also misunderstood for a long period of time until they took online retail and cloud computing over.

SpaceX IPO valuation implies a 93x revenue multiple and you don’t even have a P/E ratio because the company has negative earnings

Propellant load is now underway

@teslayoda Which is a 10+ year endeavor.

Someone with OVER 50K followers who is against the SpaceX/TSLA "merge now" movement?? whhaaa??? There may be hope for us yet

@Macronacci @garyblack00 this 💯 the permabears think an overpriced IPO means it'll just crash and burn I'm actually quite sure it'll grow into this valuation and well beyond ... in time I'm staying the hell away from the IPO though

@garyblack00 The public markets aren’t built to price SpaceX. And pre IPO: honeymoon, hype, almost no float - recipe for an extreme valuation. Guessing, down to ~$1T around year end. $20–30T eventually, likely a 10+ year ride. Not selling any TSLA.

@mrfundman @SawyerMerritt @SpaceX If they offer it to $TSLA retail then you risk selling pressure on the stock. The gift to Tesla holders is the inability to buy this overpriced IPO.

@SawyerMerritt @SpaceX Wow great preference for long-term shareholders, getting the same deal as everyone else, amazing /s

Great news, retail investors will officially be offered @SpaceX IPO shares! SpaceX shares will be offered to retail investors through the brokerages of Charles Schwab, Fidelity, Robinhood, SoFi and E*Trade. "Any purchase of our Class A common stock in this offering through these platforms will be at the same IPO price, and at the same time, as any other purchases in this offering, including purchases by institutions and other large investors." - SpaceX

@New_Dimension10 @heyJohnEe @elonmusk if only the ridiculous "let's merge now" crowd would STFU already Why is there any urgency behind this? Because SpaceX is hyped up now? Worst time possible let's see where SPCX trades at in 2-3y. Traded up? Fine. I don't need to chase another stock after holding Tesla for years

@heyJohnEe @elonmusk We are getting the opposite. Instead of being prioritized for space x ipo, we are being forced into space x hyped up ipo price merge with tsla, which is about to change it’s business model. What a middle finger to tsla investors.

It’s still so frustrating for long term $TSLA shareholders not getting a clear answer going into this IPO. Idc about these other details about how much BTC they own or Class A/B shares etc etc. ARE WE (LONG TERM TSLA HOLDERS) GETTING PRIORITY OR NOT?? @elonmusk bro