As time goes on, and perhaps expectations change and utility curve evolves, the more I believe that buying a sick house / home base and getting it fully paid off then doing whatever you want is the key.
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MaldenDriveCap
58 posts
MaldenDriveCap
@MaldenDriveCap
Not investment advice. Views are my own.
United States Katılım Aralık 2018
740 Takip Edilen2.3K Takipçiler
@HYBondLover Yes, see #2 - that is my point. Tough to get done ex-junior capital.
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@MaldenDriveCap Transcom managed to refi? I think there is a playbook.
x.com/HYBondLover/st…
Yield Junkie@HYBondLover
Best roadmap for refinancing tricky SAAS deals is the call centre space which was first impacted by AI in 2023. How can it be done? 🧵 1. Biz performs okay (yoy growth) 2. PE is willing/able to support portco (LT equity value) 3. Creditors see path to repay w/FCF (amortise debt)
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Thoma et al in a tough spot because (along other reasons) basically no matter what happens, given time horizon of disruption concerns none of ‘27-‘30 maturities are refinanceable even if underlying numbers hold up (which they might near-term irrespective of how AI plays out).
Have to use equity bullets wisely and pick horses.
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Feels timely to ask again - HF guys, more or less worried about getting replaced by AI versus six months ago?
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@OutSkied @DonutShorts What did they do that was illegal? Shareholder lawsuits?
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@MaldenDriveCap @DonutShorts I think there is a real chance of lawsuits which further erode enterprise value.
Lending is a business built upon trust, I think they will have real problems rolling their debt which could trigger a death spiral. I would find it interesting at equity like returns >15% yields
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The #GetMeOut bond of the day
$GSYCN 9 1/4% of 28
Who knew subprime auto could be a problem?????
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@DonutShorts Not cheap enough yet… or am I missing something? I feel like this should be shorted down to 0.70, but realize the carry is expensive
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Performance of our ideas vs. the S&P 500 since we started publishing in 2021 - before today's 60% meltdown in $GSY.TO, obviously
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you know who a slow down in orders/deliveries is good for? 😉
Negligible Capital@negligible_cap
Airlines are reviewing their growth plans as a result of increased fuel costs In other words less plane purchases from $BA. Also bad for $GE, $HON, and other aircraft part suppliers and related
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@TomLoughrey_LFE @CP2Close @mailboxmoney6 Can you please share more of these anecdotes from the glory days
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@mailboxmoney6 In a Gastar breakout session an older PM very politely asked, “Can you tell me about a time where you created positive shareholder value?”
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Here's my jam:
If you have been CEO for 11 years and TSR is -28% in that time, maybe give someone else a try
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In a post-AI world, how much capital do you need to be “wealthy”
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@MaldenDriveCap Pretty broad. You want banks, consumer fin, P&C, something else?
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@ValueEric How do you value the company after the restatement?
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@shortbus_ace FIG must be the most AI-able sector for getting leverage on coverage...
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AI couldn't write an email 6 months ago that was sendable. Now it can model a bank's income statement in 5 minutes from scratch
But sure, you're right anon, it really will only disrupt tech because most other business are too antiquated and on legacy systems
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If you work in special sits / distressed investing, how long until AI takes your job (now with show results):
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@liensofnewyork Think this is a bad take. Shit inventory in south and springs, maybe. Inventory in good spots very low (particularly for anything decent).
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Every house in the Hamptons is for sale, and they all have price cuts.
Carrying cost is huge for people trying to make a living renting bedrooms to people who like waiting in line at talkhouse.
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Cracks all over Timberland. VFC 37s tanked ~20 points this month trading <80. This Van headed south.
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Take my hand. We're off to Timberland. Dividend cut to $140M. Credit double notch downgraded to BB. 2037 notes just below par. Exit junk $VFC
Corp Credit Chronicle@corpbonds
You have to trim your $800M/year dividend when your ttm ocf -$650M. The stock lost ~75% of its value, so divvy can be cut further. Debt reduction ought to be top of mind. $VFC
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