Mambo

Due to China’s capital controls, Chinese hf must use swaps to gain exposure to non-Chinese stocks. However, since early June, the rules governing these swaps have allowed only selling, not buying. More than half non-Chinese semi positions have already been liquidated over the past month.

Holy Shit $NVDA and $SKHY Group on Friday unveiled a more than $500 billion AI initiative spanning large-scale AI data centers and next-generation memory “SK Telecom plans to build a 2-gigawatt AI data center powered by Nvidia's Vera Rubin chips and SK Hynix's HBM4 high-bandwidth memory, with the first facility due to come online in 2027, Nvidia added.” SK Group is the large South Korean conglomerate (chaebol) that owns both companies. SK Hynix is its semiconductor subsidiary focused on memory chips (especially high-bandwidth memory like HBM), while SK Telecom is its telecommunications arm that builds and operates infrastructure such as the planned AI data centers. AI is NOT cyclical

There's a lot of talk out there about Morgan Stanley analyst Shawn Kim. I can confirm there is NOTHING new/no changes in Shawn's views in recent days. His last analyst note on memory was July 6.

pinky promise there's no distillation

Kimi K3 has received far more love than we expected, and our GPUs are feeling it. Over the past 48 hours, demand has pushed close to the limits of our current capacity. To protect the experience of existing subscribers, we're temporarily pausing new subscriptions and prioritizing compute for current members. Existing subscribed users are not affected. We're adding capacity as fast as we can and will reopen new subscription spots in batches. Going forward, we'll also split membership into two more focused plans: Kimi Membership for Kimi Web, App, and Work; and Kimi Code Membership for coding workflows. This will help us match compute more precisely and keep the experience stable. Thank you for your patience and understanding!

If you had invested $10,000 in Apple on June 6, 1983, by April 17, 2003 you would be sitting on $8,400. 20 years. A small loss. In Apple. That’s the part nobody wants to hear. You can pick a legendary company and still sit two decades on zero return, or worse. “But what if you held until today?” That’s fiction, and you know it. 99.999% of investors do not have the patience OR the stomach to hold anything for 20+ years while it goes nowhere. You would have sold by year 3 like everyone else. Anyone who disagrees has never actually held through that kind of pain. It’s easy to backtest diamond hands. It’s another thing to live them. Why bring this up? Because I want everyone to understand what COULD happen with SpaceX and these hyped IPOs. Not what WILL happen. What COULD. The story is never guaranteed. The 20 years of nothing is a real outcome too. Save this post and study it.

Feels bad, -49.4% drawdown this month after the recent crash. My portfolio is mainly AI chokepoints and bottlenecks. In the memory, photonics, robotics, and upstream semis, (on margin) which all tend to be higher beta than others. But reduced leverage recently from the crash. I see a lot of people making fun of the drop or AI names, saying it’s obvious that: - “AI is a bubble” - “memory/kospi is a bubble” - “photonics is a bubble” - “humanoids won’t get anywhere” - “neoclouds will get replaced by hyperscalers like Meta” And a bunch of retail + bots saying “sell everything, it’s never going to recover”. But I have conviction that all these themes are backed by structural revenue growth or technological shifts. And I’ve had similar drawdowns back when there admin threatened global tariffs, before markets pulled off a recovery. I personally have a longer horizon + higher tolerance for volatility than others, to see how this plays out. Especially considering a lot of retail view things on a week to week basis: no, my thesis isn’t wrong yet if I project revenue inflection in H2 2027 and it’s 2026 now. Anyway, feels bad short term just wanted to share anyway for transparency.

META JUST CAME BACK FROM THE DEAD 🤯 Muse Spark 1.1 dropped today and it’s beating Opus 4.8 and GPT-5.5 on the benchmarks that matter for agents: → 88.1 on MCP Atlas — highest tool-use score of ANY model → 54.7 on JobBench — nearest rival sits at 48 → 62.1 on Humanity’s Last Exam (with tools) → 57.2 on Finance Agent v2 — new SOTA for financial agents The catch: → Opus 4.8 still owns coding (69.2 SWE-Bench Pro) → GPT-5.5 still owns terminal work → NOT open-weight — the Llama era is officially over → API is live today at $1.25/$4.25 with 1M context Meta spent a year in silence after the Llama 4 disaster. Then quietly built the cheapest frontier agent model on the market.

Funny how we went from like 3 labs in the race to 5 overnight. Basically 2 days and nearly doubled the models, with all being cheaper. Wild times ahead.