Mohamed Mansour 🇪🇬

The Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group (TRCSG) is working up in U.S. 3rd Fleet. There are several notable aspects of the training, including integration with Unmanned Surface Vessel Division (USVDIV) 13 operating medium USV (MDUSV) Seahawk, as well as the potential test of new Raytheon Coyote and Longbow Hellfire launchers. In February, Vice Adm. Brendan McLane told reporters that a medium-sized drone would deploy alongside TRCSG later this year, and Seahawk may be set to assume that role. There's been a flurry of naval drone activity off the California coast, including the NOMARS USX-1 Defiant, based on public AIS data. Roosevelt is at the leading edge of the Navy’s “tailored force pairing” concept - which could include incorporating USVs into CSG operations - and Seahawk appears to be the MDUSV selected to train and potentially deploy with the group. Latest: twz.com/sea/carrier-tr…

Another Israeli Merkava Mk.4 tank equipped with the Trophy active protection system (APS) is struck by a Hezbollah FPV, which hit the autoloader right next to the system's deployed kinetic launcher. The exposed launcher implies that the system was active—and yet it failed.

USS FORD 🇺🇸 spotted YESTERDAY with 2 destroyers in the Red Sea at 25.275, 35.964 DDs utilize active defense for ASW, high-speed "drifts" to evade threats, and alternating rotation tactics to screen capital ships. Efficient, aggressive, and highly agile maneuvering is key.

New high-resolution imagery from Iran, made by Soar Atlas, shows heavy destruction at the Sajid Missile Base, an underground ballistic missile facility, and the nearby Amir al-Momenin Garrison used for personnel, logistics and command operations. 🔥 #IranWar #MiddleEast #Iran #OSINT #SatelliteImagery

Using a mixture of AIS data, general knowledge of trade flows, and multitude of other sources, a complete map of major voyages can be created, showing a clear visualization of the changes within tanker markers. With VLCCs, there is an apparent decrease in AG voyages and an increase in pipeline reroutings like Yanbu and Fujairah with exports heading to the East. However, there have been two interesting changes in routings that are less obvious: - USG>UKC voyages are notably increasing. - West Coast Panama to Asia voyages are increasing. For West Coast Panama voyages, cargoes mostly originate from Guyana. Crude oil is shipped from the FPSOs off of Guyana to the East Coast of Panama via Suezmaxes and Aframaxes. This crude is transported via the Trans-Panama pipeline with a capacity of 860,000 bpd. To support an increase of transits from the West Coast, there’s also been an uptick of voyages to the East Coast of Panama, indicating this pipeline is near or at maximum capacity now. Interestingly enough, these Caribbean to East Coast Panama voyages have decreased for Suezmaxes but have increased for Aframaxes. This is likely due to more Suezmaxes taking long-haul voyages to Asia and to Europe from the Caribbean. With fewer Suezmaxes available, this demand shifted to Aframaxes, which are more suited for short voyages like this. To show how every changing trade flow is interlinked, this change in demand also added to the enormous demand in the Caribbean/USG in March, which led to Aframax rates like TD9 (Carib/USG) pushing near worldscale (ws) 1000 or over $350,000/day. I also saw a reported fixture at ws 1001 at the time in late March. Historically, these exports from West Coast Panama would mostly go to the US West Coast (USWC), West Coast South America (WCSA), and Asia using VLCCs. But recently, these exports have redirected almost exclusively to Asia via VLCCs. This also makes sense as Asian refineries still have an unmet appetite for medium-heavy grades of crude, and the grades out of Guyana with an API of 34-29 (Payara Gold ideally) meet some of this criteria. From a chartering perspective, the impacts are interesting as this gives owners with vessels in East Asia more options than usual. With more cargo opportunities on the West Coast of the Americas, the option to ballast across the Pacific is more prevalent. Although these volumes are not too significant, this does draw some vessel supply away from loading zones in the Atlantic Basin, somewhat contributing to the very tight vessel supply that was seen throughout the first month and a half of the Iran war. To understand why the rest of these voyages have been occurring at a higher volume and have shifted, we need to look at how Suezmax and Aframax routings have changed. With how much the market has changed, looking at only one vessel segment only creates a partial picture that can even be misguiding as export demand has also shifted a lot between VLCCs, Suezmaxes, and Aframaxes…
 *The full article analyzing the shifting trade flows for VLCCs and other crude tankers is available now below: wisdomandboats.substack.com/p/iran-war-imp…

@MSchroeder77 @INTELonIRAN Well noted, thanks a lot for sharing

There 2 notable details in this photo of SA-7 pattern MANPADS displayed during a pro-gvt march in Tehran this month (first flagged by @INTELonIRAN). The 1st is the gripstock on the right, which is marked "SK-7". "SK" is the designator for Chinese gripstocks, but the designator

The locations of the surveillance ships show which locations and military facilities are China’s top intelligence collection priorities in the Indian Ocean region.

Ukraine’s Shahed-killing Antonov An-28 Cash twin-turboprop utility aircraft are now air-launching interceptor drones to provide another means of defeating their targets. This is among the latest developments in Ukraine’s battle against Russian long-range one-way attack drones, one that has seen each side introduce new technologies and countermeasures in what has become one of the fastest-moving aspects of the conflict. @CombatAir 9/10

VLCC and tanker spotted TODAY doing crude STS transfer in Iran 🇮🇷 Jask East Bay at 25.6210, 57.8924 in front of an IRGC naval base. Meanwhile, 2 speedboats approach base.

Imagery reportedly from an rally in Ahvaz, Khuzestan province posted by @INTELonIRAN clearly shows an Igla-S launch tube (!) - a recent generation Russian MANPADS not previously known to be in Iranian arsenals. If the image is authentic, this is big (1/)

To prepare for the possibility of running out of oil storage space at Kharg Island, Iran has brought NASHA (9079107) out of retirement. She's a 30yo VLCC that's been anchored empty for the past few years; currently spending 4 days on a trip that should take 1.5–2 days. #OOTT

So far on our list, there are six tankers which have been interdicted by the US Navy and/or Coast Guard in some form or another; be it a hands-off redirection or a physical boarding. Five of these tankers are Iran-flagged belonging to the National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC) while the non-NITC TIFANI (9273337) is flying an unknown flag, according to the United Nations International Maritime Organization (IMO). Five are VLCC supertankers capable of carrying up to two million barrels each; along with a Suezmax tanker capable of carrying one million barrels. One of these laden Iranian VLCCs is named DIONA (9569695), and she is about to reach Iran after having been presumably interdicted at least a day ago in the Arabian Sea. She had departed Chabahar over the weekend with two sister ships. DIONA has now passed the US Navy blockade line. #OOTT #IranWar #Tankers

ホルムズ海峡をまさに「通過」しつつある，アメリカ軍の無人洋上監視機 MQ-4C トライトン。

FY27 Pacific Deterrence Initiative (PDI) Guess who is the big winner of PDI funds over time? Office of the Secretary of War: FY25 997,048 FY26 2,024,799 FY27 2,541,166 ... It only goes up through FY31, unlike all the rest which fluctuate. 😏 @BDHerzinger @HunterStires

Behind him is the empty 30yo Iranian VLCC supertanker NAROON (9079066). She's not in any new shipping corridor established by the IRGC like he said, but further north, off Hormuz Island. NAROON is the most obvious floating neon sign in the NITC fleet. Boring.

Although we are unsure whether the container ship EUPHORIA (9235828) has been seized today by Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, we have received reports that she has come under fire. Two other container ships, EPAMINONDAS (9153862) and MSC FRANCESCA (9401116), are now considered seized. In any case, we have just tagged all three vessels in today's ESA Sentinel-2 satellite imagery and added them to our public “Lost & Found” page so that the crews' families are aware of the vessels' latest locations. tankertrackers.com/report/lostand… Thanks, /TT

HI Sutton / Covertshores over at Blue Sky with an important note about the fast boats today that people are saying at laying mines, seizing ships, being a menace to south central whilst drinking their juice in the Hormuz

EPAMINONDAS 🇱🇷 and MSC FRANCESCA 🇵🇦 ships seized by Iran spotted TODAY 👇 anchored 13 km off IRGC naval base at 26.4977, 56.9167 Shaheed Rahbari base near Sirik sits on Strait of Hormuz eastern side. Inaugurated 6 years ago to put Iran in full control of strait; their words.

France will name the first of class of their new ballistic missile submarines "FS Invincible", with commissioning currently planned for 2036.