Inside Baseball with Old Chestnut

When you get Lloyd Blankfein of $GS warning "I smell a crash coming" and now Point72 David Rosen saying private credit is a fraudulent bubble... all within 24 hrs of each other... I dunno. Wall Street seems ... nervous.

Last week, Wall Street lost a legend. I never met Morris Sachs (‘MB’) in person. I first came across him when ‘Motown’ was a regular visitor to the comments section of Kevin Muir’s research notes from where he was finally persuaded to make a ‘blockbuster’ debut appearance on The Market Huddle in the depths of the Covid lockdowns of May 2020. MB’s ‘must listen’ appearances on ‘The Huddle’ were the springboard for the launch of his own ‘Inside Baseball with Old Chestnut’ podcast with his friend, cycling buddy and market 'padawan' Liam Allen. The 🐿️ never missed a single one of the show’s 186 episodes (though I do confess to have skipped the Phish intro every week). When someone with MB’s deep experience in markets is prepared to share an hour of his wisdom (almost) every weekend, only a fool would not take advantage. So much learning from what was said (and often from what was not said). I was truly ‘star struck’ when I learned that MB was a regular reader of my own letter and the first time the 🐿️ got a ‘shout out’ on the podcast was a genuine ‘mic drop’ moment. My yelp of excitement at that moment turned every head in the dog park! I am honored and truly grateful that he became a huge supporter of my work. We became regular ‘pen pals’ over the next 3 years. His innate kindness, razor-sharp wit and impish sense of humor sang out of his emails. I often found myself wishing I had had a mentor of MB’s caliber and character helping me grapple with the greasy pole of high finance. Am sure that countless other listeners feel the same way. I used to wonder why, on occasion during an episode of the pod, Liam appeared to sound almost hyper protective of a man who, schooled by the hand-to-hand combat of the futures pits of Chicago, most certainly could fight his own corner. Sometimes a couple of weeks would pass before I got a response to a note or question. I now understand why. He was fighting for his life and yet still generously making the time to educate and to entertain us all. He will be truly missed, and I again send my deepest condolences to Liam, Sheryl, his daughters and the broader Sachs clan. How fitting it was that I learned of his passing during that ‘deep red’ futures open last Sunday night. These are the types of markets that were made for trading legends like MB. I am convinced that he would have been in his ‘alpha long bond trader’ element last week. The rest of us trading mortals are left behind to make sense of the bond markets without his invaluable guidance. And it was quite a week to have to start doing that alone! Rest in peace, Old Chestnut.

Now that $CVNA is finally imploding, everyone should take a look at the sellside price targets for the stock – an absolute joke. Sellside researchers have continued to pour gasoline on a dumpster fire, month after month, ultimately helping push $CVNA into the S&P500 while the Garcia’s kept selling and selling their shares JPM even increased their price target today, despite cutting their estimates. Morgan Stanley recently raised their bull price target to $750 because $CVNA bought a new car dealership location, and the analyst decided to interpret that as Carvana moving into the Robotaxi business. I look forward to reading the notes they put out in response to this and will share as they drop. At the end of the day, it’s sad that CVNA was pushed this far by the sellside and others, especially now that it’s included in the S&P500 and in pension accounts and 401-Ks everywhere, while the Garcia’s have made a killing dumping thousands of shares. I hope there is justice

The old bond market adage is that yields will keep rising until something breaks. In 2022/23, rising U.S. yields "broke" several banks by March 2023 (Silicon Valley Bank). Japanese yields are now at a 27-year high and going vertical. When does something "break" in Japan?