stack owl

An annotated timeline of some markets

REPORTER: You mentioned that, staying on as Fed governor, you intend to keep a low profile. Could you give us a little more detail on what that looks like? JEROME POWELL: *ducks down*

@John_Hempton We have quite some overlap on the long names. Strange day 🤷‍♂️

Markets are strange. My biggest long is -5% on results I thought good. My third biggest long is +8% on results I thought average One of my biggest shorts is up hard on results I think are air. Many of my shorts are down hard, also on air. There is far less logic to it than you would care to admit.

@Jesse_Livermore This last line is essence. Pathetic desperation. And the other side can sense it. Weekend warrior with one eye on oil and memecoin prices vs regime looking at survival-or-not. 🤦‍♂️

Trump would obviously have a better chance of selling the deal if the Iranians took him seriously. But his pathetic desperation to get out of this fight (that he thought would be all glory and no guts) has significantly undermined that.

The deal that comes closest to making sense for both sides IMO would be removal of all sanctions in exchange for free SoH passage plus a (weak, unenforced) commitment against further nuclear expansion.

@QuantifiedStrat What strategy number would this be? Tks

@Jesse_Livermore It’s only humiliating if you feel shame and if those around you point it out - neither seems the case here 😒

@orrdavid It’s traded like that since end of Feb 🤔

It's sure trading like someone knows something...

It's weird oil is staying so low while the ceasefire doesn't seem to be working. I don't get it.

@CRUDEOIL231 Sounds reasonable. But what explains the front contract just not rising beyond early March highs ? Brent or WTI

I feel like the oil market has already crossed the point of no return, regardless of how this war plays out. At first this wave just swallowed up everything East of Suez. We saw force majeures popping up all over Asia and premiums going through the roof. But now the Atlantic wall has officially crumbled. Only oil nerds like us are checking this stuff lately, but seriously—just look at the North Sea Platts window and the USGC diffs. This is nowhere near normal. I know some ppl are getting all hyped up every time a single Handy tanker or LPG carrier squeaks through Hormuz, even claiming there’s a secret fleet of tankers slipping through. I highly doubt it. If supply was actually fine, Atlantic physical diffs wouldn't be screaming like this. These numbers only happen when you're hitting a massive supply shock. Like some of smart guys have noted, once you pass a certain threshold, it doesn't even matter if Hormuz reopens—the logistical bottlenecks will make it impossible to absorb the shock anytime soon. I’m pretty sure we’ve already crossed that line. #oott #iran

@amgrant78 @xMcQuaidx Here market is extremely reflexive. The price is changing reality (TACO) and fundamentals tick by tick.

@amgrant78 @xMcQuaidx ‘08 was easier to trade

One of the strangest markets of our lifetime. Any other time in my life, with these headlines floating around, $SPY would be down 3-4% today.

@thoheck @agnostoxxx Yeah. But 100 to 80 via 150 will just stop everyone out :)

@agnostoxxx Right? Even when we get the inevitable TACO, it doesn’t change the energy problem

Monkeys don't understand that time is not on our side🥹

This tweet was funnier nine years ago

This is v good

@PauloMacro Spare a thought for us Brits 🇬🇧 who were paying that in peacetime 😬

A month ago in the first days of the Iran War, I wrote the note “Tom Hanks Has Covid” describing the realization moment in March 2020 when everybody knew that everybody knew Covid was a severe risk-off market event. The market crashed because everyone now knew someone who had covid (because everybody knows Tom Hanks). I have been asked many times what the coming Tom Hanks Moment could be, and now I am thinking the most absurd and perfect moment would be if Tom Hanks tweets that he just paid $8/gallon to fill up his gas tank. Man that would be perfect… 🫢 @tomhanks

@factor_members @inhibitedtrader Wondering where a level for full nq take-out would be. 2DSTR perhaps? Tks

@Jesse_Livermore That’s even worse because the West often takes the lead on social mores from the United States

Trump's ultimate impact may be that he pushes our country into full-fledged socialism. The movement was already popular w/ Gen Z, then add in the shameless corruption, repeated supply shocks, not looking good at all.

@sweinand Probably the highest duration bond in the world. So kuch convexity :))

The Other 100-year Austria Bond 5.95bb issue 0.85% coupon Issued on 06/30/2020, 100-year maturity! Issued at $98.01, currently trading at ~$31

@marketplunger1 @RUSI_org There is something else that’ll get used then 😬 ☢️

Great chart from @RUSI_org showing Days Till Depletion for various US, Israel, and Allied munitions. According to Perplexity, it would require 547 metric tons of tungsten to get back to a ~90 day supply for the following munitions. Current tungsten burn rate is 6t/day.

@factor_members The reflexivity is off the charts 📈 The price is altering geopolitics and fundamentals as much as the underlying geopolitics is driving price.

@orrdavid EURPLN 🤔

Is there some way to bet on the Ukraine war ending soon? I don't see how it can go on now that Ukraine is able to kill Russian soldiers faster than Russia can replace them.

The reflexivity in markets is off the charts compared to 2022… making this a very difficult market to trade. The price of assets is altering the course of geopolitical decisions which are driving said prices then. An explosively volatile but still dampened price series