Martin Kramer

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Martin Kramer

Martin Kramer

@Martin_Kramer

Historian @TelAvivUni & Walter P. Stern fellow @WashInstitute. Past 1st president @ShalemCollege J’lem. History & politics of Middle East & Israel.

the archives Katılım Nisan 2009
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Martin Kramer
Martin Kramer@Martin_Kramer·
I’ve made a critique of the remarkable and much-discussed essay by @HusseinAboubak on the genesis of Arab radicalism and Islamism. Looking forward to his reply!
Hussein Aboubakr Mansour@HusseinAboubak

Today in @mosaicmag, distinguished ME scholar Martin Kramer wrote a critical and erudite response to my "Enchantment" essay and rejected my entire understanding of modern Arab history. My final response will come later, but for now, enjoy the debate! ideas.tikvah.org/mosaic/essays/…

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Martin Kramer
Martin Kramer@Martin_Kramer·
I first made the case in 2006, twenty years ago at link). The above is a more detailed account published a decade ago. But some crazed theories never die. martinkramer.org/2006/04/12/isr…
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Martin Kramer
Martin Kramer@Martin_Kramer·
“Iran has not experienced a military victory against a foreign enemy since the 18th century. As a result, its leaders are skilled at presenting defeats as draws, and draws (like the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s) as victories.”blogs.timesofisrael.com/in-iran-surviv…
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Martin Kramer
Martin Kramer@Martin_Kramer·
“Whoever leads the regime will declare victory for Iran, regardless of how much damage the U.S. and Israel inflict. In that respect, the Islamic Republic is no different from Saddam’s Iraq.” blogs.timesofisrael.com/in-iran-surviv…
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בר שם-אור Bar Shem-Ur
בר שם-אור Bar Shem-Ur@Bar_ShemUr·
למרות אינסוף ניתוחים שלא מתיישרים עם המציאות והערכות שגויות התקשורת הישראלית מתקשה להשתחרר מההתמכרות לגנרלים בדימוס באולפנים. אספנו את מיטב התחזיות הביטחוניות שלא התגשמו במלחמה הנוכחית. הכתבה המלאה מהצינור
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Martin Kramer
Martin Kramer@Martin_Kramer·
@ceba7o @ElliotKaufman6 And don’t forget that North Vietnam was backed massively by the Soviet Union and Communist China. Iran is on its own.
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Martin Kramer
Martin Kramer@Martin_Kramer·
@ceba7o @ElliotKaufman6 The Viet Minh under Ho and Giap defeated the French in an eight-year war in 1954. Iran failed to defeat Saddam in eight years in the 1980s, even when Khomeini led them.
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Martin Kramer
Martin Kramer@Martin_Kramer·
@akoz33 Iran hasn’t won a state-to-state war outright since the 18th century.
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Andrzej Kozlowski
Andrzej Kozlowski@akoz33·
With the Ottomans winning most of the times, the exception being the campaigns of Nader Shah 1730-35, 1743-46.
Martin Kramer@Martin_Kramer

@Osint613 During the past 1,000 years, Turkey (Ottoman) and Persia (Iran) fought 11 to 12 major wars; countless smaller border skirmishes and "campaigns" occurred between.

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Martin Kramer
Martin Kramer@Martin_Kramer·
@Osint613 During the past 1,000 years, Turkey (Ottoman) and Persia (Iran) fought 11 to 12 major wars; countless smaller border skirmishes and "campaigns" occurred between.
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Open Source Intel
Open Source Intel@Osint613·
Erdogan warns Iran: “Despite our repeated warnings, provocative steps are continued to be taken against Turkey No action should be taken that casts a shadow over our thousand-year-old neighborly and brotherly bond with [Iran].”
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Martin Kramer
Martin Kramer@Martin_Kramer·
@AmitSegal On Oct 7, it dawned on him that he’d been wrong all along, that stoking internal divisions while enemies proliferated on the borders was madness. To his credit, he swung into action, but his place in history will be owed to an accident: the improbable return of Donald Trump.
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Martin Kramer
Martin Kramer@Martin_Kramer·
@AmitSegal Iran built its capabilities on his long watch. Decade after decade, he talked about Iran and its proxies, but refused to pull the trigger while they metastisized. Were it not for Oct 7 and the unlikely return of Trump, he would have left Israel more vulnerable than he found it.
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Amit Segal
Amit Segal@AmitSegal·
“Now we turn our eyes to the next twenty-five years, which will bring us to the centennial of Israel’s rebirth,” said Prime Minister-elect Benjamin Netanyahu when presenting his government in the Knesset on the final debate day of 2022. “In the next four years we will act so that by our hundredth year of independence Israel will be a thriving global power, strong and no longer questioned in its existence. To achieve this there are three major missions: the first is to thwart Iran’s efforts to develop an arsenal of nuclear bombs that threaten us and the entire world.” “And what about the damage to the Supreme Court?” shouted MK Yorai Lahav-Hertzanu of Yesh Atid. His colleague Naor Shiri continued: “We also have limits. You can’t come here and make these lies.” “These members are shouting that Iran will not destroy us with nuclear bombs—that it’s not important, that it’s minor,” Netanyahu replied. Then the protocol recorded the rhythmic chants of the incoming opposition: “Weak. Weak. Weak. Weak. Weak. Weak. Weak. Weak.” Netanyahu was not the first to talk about Iran, and certainly not the only one. But he was the most consistent leader in Israel—and arguably in the world—in focusing attention on the threat. He did so while facing torrents of ridicule and accusations that Iran was merely a political spin. And above all, he was the one who led the IDF together with the United States—twice in one year—to eliminate the gravest existential threat to the State of Israel. For that reason he justly deserves full credit for the historic alliance. All the opposition leaders’ statements this week, which carefully praised the security establishment while ignoring him, were a model of pettiness—and above all a political mistake. When credit is due, it is due. What will Netanyahu do with the public credit he accumulates? In theory, if his life’s mission is nearing completion, perhaps he will not run again—finish his trial and retire. After all, elections do not reward completed missions, only future problems. “A nice thesis,” says a Netanyahu associate, “but the prime minister’s car has only one gear: forward.” Trump is there until 2029, and Netanyahu intends to make the most of every day of the great alliance. In other words: he has no plans to start looking for a lecture circuit. To read the rest of today's newsletter click here. newsletter.amitsegal.net/p/its-noon-in-…
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Martin Kramer
Martin Kramer@Martin_Kramer·
Interesting: According to SIPRI's latest comparable figures for 2024, the US spent $997bn on defense and Israel $46.5bn, for a combined total of roughly $1.04 trillion, while Iran spent about $7.9bn. In other words, the US and Israel together outspent Iran by roughly 132 to 1.
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Martin Kramer
Martin Kramer@Martin_Kramer·
@yaakovkatz @netanyahu Netanyahu took his time about it: 30 years. Had a few votes gone differently, or had Trump not returned, we’d be worse off than when Netanyahu started. October 7 changed everyone, him included.
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Yaakov Katz
Yaakov Katz@yaakovkatz·
It is no secret that Israelis have very strong opinions about Benjamin @netanyahu. Roughly half the country is in the “only Bibi” camp, and roughly half is in the “anyone but Bibi” one. After the last two-and-a-half years – and especially after the last week – no matter what camp one is in, however, there is no denying the historic role Netanyahu has played in helping shape a safer and more secure Israel. I am aware that this sentence makes some people uncomfortable. But it should not, because acknowledging strategic achievement is not the granting of absolution for mistakes and failures. Israel’s problem over the last two-and-a-half years has been the insistence by too many – on both sides – that Netanyahu must be judged per one dimension alone: either as the exclusive source of every disaster or as the sole author of every success. This perspective is wrong. Leadership is not a buffet where one only chooses the dishes one likes. The new security reality we are seeing being created right now would have been hard to imagine back on October 7, when 1,200 people were murdered, and 251 more were kidnapped. It would have been almost impossible to predict that, two-and-a-half years later, the region would look so different and that Israel would be in a stronger strategic position. And Netanyahu deserves credit for this – the strategic changes in the region and the victories over Israel’s enemies that unfolded on his watch. But in the same breath, he is also responsible for the policies that led to October 7. And this is the challenge. October 7 has long been a coin with two sides. Yet, Netanyahu and his followers want to take credit for only one side. They want nothing to do with taking responsibility for the failures. But here is the truth – it is a mixed bag. Netanyahu deserves credit for the good and should be held accountable for the bad. That is leadership, and that is the nuance Israelis will need to hold onto as elections approach. Latest in @Jerusalem_Post. jpost.com/opinion/articl…
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Robert Satloff
Robert Satloff@robsatloff·
Powerful words from one of the #MiddleEast's most thoughtful political observers: "Silence [in response to #Iran's attacks on multiple #Arab countries] is considered one of the worst positions the Arab League has known in its history."
عبدالرحمن الراشد@aalrashed

معاليك، نحبك ونحترمك لكن لابد الصراحة .. الحديث عن أن ما يجري مجرد مغامرة إسرائيلية او أمريكية لتغيير الشرق الأوسط قد يكون صحيحا لكنه في نفس الوقت يتجاهل حقيقة أساسية: التهديد الإيراني لم يكن موجهاً لإسرائيل وحدها، بل طال ٨ دول عربية على الأقل عبر الصواريخ والمسيّرات وعبر الميليشيات البروكسي التابعة لها. من الخليج إلى العراق ولبنان واليمن وسوريا، عاشت دول عربية لعقود تحت تهديد وتخريب مشروع إيراني توسعي استخدم الوكلاء المسلحين والصواريخ كأدوات هيمنة وارهاب. لذلك لا يمكن اختزال المسألة في صراع إسرائيلي-إيراني، وكأن العرب الضحايا مجرد متفرجين. الحقيقة إيران هي من هاجمت دول عربية وعلى مدى سنين طويلة: •عبر الحوثيين في اليمن ضد السعودية والإمارات. •عبر الميليشيات في العراق •عبر حزب الله ودمرت لبنان. •عبر شبكات بشار في سوريا مهما كان العداء لم نرَ إسرائيل أو امريكا تطلقان صواريخ على عواصم الخليج أو تستهدفان منشآتها النفطية. إيران هي من فعلت ذلك. لهذا فإن اعتبار تدمير القدرات العسكرية الإيرانية عمل خاطئ يتجاهل أن هذه القدرات نفسها استُخدمت ضد نصف إللدول العربية. تقليص قوة إيران يعني عملياً تقليص الخطر الذي يهدد نصف العالم العربي منذ أربعين عاماً. التنافس الإيراني-الإسرائيلي كان مرشحاً طبيعياً لأن ينتهي إلى حالة الحرب. لكن ليس من مصلحة العرب أن يُطلب منهم تلقائياً الاصطفاف مع المعسكر الإيراني فقط لأنه يرفع شعار العداء لإسرائيل. العكس هو الصحيح . المتوقع من الحكومات العربية الصامتة شجب إيران على هجماتها على شقيقاتها العربية.. وصمتها يعتبر من اسوأ المواقف التي عرفتها الجامعة العربية في تاريخها. حتى عندما احتل صدام الكويت كل الدول العربية استنكرت بما فيها التي كانت ضد الحرب عليه!! المواقف المختبئة وراء معاداة اسرائيل شيء، والعدوان على الدول العربية شيء آخر. مشروع البروكسي الإيراني في المنطقة من حزب الله إلى الحوثيين لم يجلب للعالم العربي سوى الحروب وتآكل سيادة الدول. ومع انهيار هذا المعسكر أو تراجعه، يتقلص أحد أكبر مصادر عدم الاستقرار الإقليمي. لهذا، فإن المنتظر من الحكومات العربية والجامعة العربية ألا تختزل النقاش هذه المرة في زاوية الصراع مع إسرائيل فقط، بل أن تنظر أيضاً إلى أمن الدول العربية التي كانت تحت تهديد مباشر من إيران وتتعرض اليوم الى تدمير واسع . والدول التي لم يمسها التهديد الإيراني مباشرة بحكم الجغرافيا السياسية، يجب ألا تتغافل عن حقيقة أن نصف العالم العربي تقريباً عاش تحت تهديد المشروع الإيراني لعقود وتستخف بأمن هذه الدول. أما الدفاع عن إيران فقط لأنها ترفع شعار فلسطين، مع تجاهل ما فعلته في العراق وسوريا ولبنان واليمن والخليج، فهو إساءة بالغة للدول العربية التي تحملت كلفة هذا المشروع طوال أربعة عقود. معاليكم ، القضية ليست مشروع تغيير الشرق الأوسط، فالمنطقة دائما في مخاضات لم تنقطع.. القضية إنهاء مرحلة من التهديدات الميليشيات والإيرانية حتى لو صادف ذلك بيد قوة نحن على خلاف معها

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Elliot Kaufman
Elliot Kaufman@ElliotKaufman6·
My WSJ Weekend Interview with the great historian Ali Ansari discusses: -the regime's crisis -the nation's 120-year tradition of fighting to establish the rule of law -the failure of so much Western analysis Is Iran on the Brink of Another Revolution? wsj.com/opinion/is-ira…
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Elliot Kaufman
Elliot Kaufman@ElliotKaufman6·
Everywhere you look, there’s another expert to tell you what won’t happen—what can’t happen—in Iran. Ali Ansari has a different view. “I’m a firm believer in what Hannah Arendt says: Revolutions are impossible before they happen and inevitable after they happen.” For the WSJ:
Elliot Kaufman tweet media
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Martin Kramer
Martin Kramer@Martin_Kramer·
@aarondmiller2 This was a war that was bound to happen. The US waited for half a century for the regime to collapse from within. If it were Cuba, it wouldn’t have mattered. But unlike Cuba, it had grandiose ambitions and missiles. No reason not to exploit its weakness now.
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Aaron David Miller
Aaron David Miller@aarondmiller2·
Six American families are grieving tonight their lives changed forever because an American President without Congressional approval against wishes of the majority of the American people launched a war of his choice based on false and unproven justifications.
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