Matthew Lay
70 posts
@MattLay Honestly extremely surprised by those two, not going up another 50% yet.
I think it’s because nothing CPO has scaled up yet so it’s not reflected in their balance sheets.
But I have pretty high conviction in Foci, MSScorp is a lottery ticket for inspection monopoly.
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Good times with $AEHR, it’s now ~$3.5B MC.
Haven’t mentioned it as much since there’s nothing too new.
Just waiting on volume orders for these types of players like $LPK, and others.
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
$AEHR looks extremely promising at ~$1.1B MC. Aehr is starting to remind me of an early $TER, mixed with pre-earnings $AAOI. If we look at the timeline and speculated customers: Feb 11th: Sonoma production win for Hyperscaler's AI ASIC processors. (likely $GOOGL, $AMZN, $META). - Probably Google? Aehr bought Incal, who was speculated to be used by Google for their TPUs. Feb 26th: $14 million from AI lead customer (likely $AMD, $NVDA) - Probably $AMD here for Instinct MI300/MI400. March 3rd: Lead silicon photonics customer for one FOX-XP system (likely $INTC siph) - Very likely $INTC has been their lead customer. March 31st: Initial order from major new silicon photonics customer (likely $AVGO, $MRVL, $CSCO ) - New customer (rules out Intel), prob one of these transitioning to 800G/1.6T silicon photonics transceivers (All speculative, very confidential BOM) Regardless. This timeline is just bottling up for $AEHR. Could be next earnings. Or two quarters from now. But feels like a matter of time before we see mass orders.
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Serenity vs Kevin Xu
Kevin Xu:
- $200 Subscription ❌
- $BOT was a loss ❌
- $QS was a loss ❌
- $HIMS was a loss ❌
- Gave up on $IREN❌
Serenity:
- $1 Subscription✅
- $AXTI called at $15 (+1,000%)✅
- $SIVE called at 5 sek (+1,600%)✅
- $SOI called at $44 (+400%) ✅
- $TSM called at $110 (+150%)✅
- $NBIS called at $85 (+150%)✅
- $IQE called at 15 (+300%)✅
- The list goes on ...
This shouldn't even be a discussion.
And for those complaining about Serenity not posting numbers. Who cares. Percentages and wins mean more than seeing a PNL.
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Highly likely now $MRVL just buys the lasers directly from $COHR, $SIVE, or $LITE.
It just causes delays to Marvell Celestial roadmap.
But I've always had expectations on the packaging side of things to get vertically integrated down the road, just not this soon.
Laser IP is much, much more complex.
There's a reason why all the laser companies are worth tens of billions.
Liquidity@0xLiquidAssets
@aleabitoreddit Do you think Marvel would source the lasers directly from sivers? That’s an options right?
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@aleabitoreddit How is it that the first investment I made based off your advice so happened to be SIVE?
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@findingsatoshi_ So good! Well done to everyone involved.
A most beautiful secret kept, my faith in humanity restored.
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The answer to the greatest financial mystery of our time.
Finding Satoshi, available now only at findingsatoshi.com
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@bryan_johnson Can you do an updated skincare video, e.g. is it the same, what’s changed, realisations. Been waiting for one
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Results from my Feb 23 skin therapy:
Improvements since treatment:
> Brown spots: +71 percentile points (20th → 91st) ✅
> Pores: +25 percentile points ✅
> Spots: +25 percentile points✅
My skin age is 9 years younger than my chronological age (39 vs 48) and hasn't aged in five years since starting this project. Effectively a 9 year age reversal. Measured using VISIA multispectral clinical imaging, the most validated non-invasive skin analysis system available.
Feb 23 treatment summary
Technologies
> Everesse RF
> CoolPeel CO2 laser
> BBL
Each targeting a different skin depth so repair windows overlap without competing.
Treatment details
Everesse RF (200 pulses, Level 2.5 per cheek), CoolPeel CO2 laser (3.0W, 700 micron spacing), and BBL broadband light. Each targeting a different skin depth.
Everesse drives heat into the dermis at 60-70°C, triggering fibroblast activation and collagen production that peaks 6-8 weeks later (about now), tightening the structural scaffolding that makes pores visible.
CoolPeel ablates the surface layer of skin, physically removing melanin-loaded cells and forcing fresh keratinocytes to the surface.
BBL destroys residual pigment one layer deeper through selective photothermolysis, where melanin absorbs light energy and self-destructs.
Porphyrins dropped 13 points, which is expected. The treatments temporarily disrupt the follicular environment that bacteria need to thrive, and that recovers within 8-12 weeks.
Goal was to do a triple-modality stack so the repair windows overlap without competing (dermis, epidermis, and chromophores).
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@aleabitoreddit Tag Elon and Nikita, you should have enough leverage to get their attention
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What's even going on at X?
X is charging my foreign users an additional 46% on top of my subscription.
I'm only asking where the additional premiums go to...
From someone who has the most paid subscribers in the finance category.
-> They refuse to give a simple answer and closes the ticket.
I've been trying hard to advocate other users staying on on X compared to financial competitors... but wtf.
I thought this platform was one seeking maximum transparency?
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
Just in case you’re wondering why I’m bullish on $CRCL and Stablecoins. 8605 subscribers at $1.00: -> $1595. Not even including int. like Canada paying 46% more (2 CAD vs $1 USD subscription) and the FX/rounding disappearing into the void. I’m not here for subscription revenue so I don’t plan on changing anything. But just found this pretty amusing even if you factored in pro rata or holds/delays. You would reduce 30% App Store fees, Stripe card TX fees, and other black box fee mechanisms like foreign currency rounding. Stablecoins are definitely the future, and you can already see banks trying to control it with Clarity Act lobbying.
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@aleabitoreddit Of course you are! It’s hit after hit with your insights, plus your subscription cost is the lowest I’ve seen from a serious X’er.
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I still can't believe I’m probably the #1 most subscribed to finance account on X now?
8,000+ subscribers is an insane number. Thank you for validating my ideas.
What a crazy timeline!
Going from getting temp-banned on $RDDT after Mods kept censoring my $RKLB Pokemon TA posts at $20...
To now having institutions copytrading my thoughts on photonics bottlenecks.
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@aleabitoreddit Could this not be a sign that a recession is on its way?
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Are we not using social media anymore?
$SNAP down -50.6% YTD
$RDDT down -44.6% YTD
$PINS down -32.2% YTD
$META down -26.35% 6M
Companies like Snapchat with excessive SBC makes sense…
Yeah there’s bear cases around Meta capex but it’s growing forward revs 30-33% Y/Y round ~17 fwd p/e so that spend is definitely delivering ROI.
But at this point the selloff looks way overblown especially with Reddit with fwd ev/fcf: ~24x; 91% gross margins, 52% growth?
Everyone’s hyper focusing around “AI” disruption but if anything, it makes these social media companies more lean/profitable.
I’m a buyer here. But a confused one.
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@politicalmath Agree, the entire project has been super refreshing. I went to watch it alone to see what the hype was about and I had a blast.
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I'm just stunned by how good the entire Hail Mary project is. They made a good movie. They are promoting it well. They are going all-in on those cute little marketing touches that I thought studios gave up on a decade ago.
Project Hail Mary Updates@HailMaryLogs
There’s a really cool hidden gem on the official Project Hail Mary site. You can download a 3D model of the xenonite Grace sculpture and, if you’ve got a 3D printer, make your own mini Ryland for your desk ✨
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If you don't know my style by now:
I identify upcoming sectors (photonics, memory, drones), then go long on the entire supply chain.
I'm not always right, though.
$AVAV and the drone sectors were my biggest losses this year outside of $RDDT ( $OSS did end up 60%+ ).
I still believe fundamentally companies like $AIRO, $LPTH and others are extremely solid long term. ( $AIRO is still up ~15%, but lost majority of it's 70%+ gains, Draganfly dropped way more)
And there's very unrealistic expectations from looking at $SNDK supercycles that everything can go up 100% a month.
The main catalyst I've identified around that sector was the Venezuela invasion's usage of hidden drone + edge defense contracts/subcontractors.
And I expected there to be follow-up funding into the sector.
However, I mentioned I de-risked around the Greenland deal (majority of defense contractors crashed) but kept smaller concentration in stuff like $AVAV.
SCAR program loss to others like $AVAV was even a bigger surprise and I lost even more.
Unfortunately, the War in Iran focused around larger defense contractors like L3 Harris, $NOC and private companies like Anduril, and some energy directed suppliers like $LASR.
So there weren't many tailwind recoveries for drone companies.
That being said, I do know how to cut losses.
But I still get a lot of crap saying oh look at "X stock they've liked earlier in the year".
I'm very transparent when it comes to these things: A certain executive in the $IREN community are known to delete all their posts after their followers lose 90% on $BKKT or $ASST post-dilution.
Majority of my stocks I identify are extremely solid fundamentally so they either hold their level since my original thesis.
And I post risk-levels / conviction-levels with them too (risky ones obviously have more downside).
I have skin in the game compared to others that just post hot takes.
So if my thesis is wrong, I lose money personally (there's ton of more fills like this, just endless losses on $AVAV).
But I leave everything up so you can see how things play out.
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
@bennybigbull Nope, sold for solid 6 figure loss on $AVAV and rotated to photonics.
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@aleabitoreddit You’re doing much better than “something right” haha
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Israeli General casually drops: "We will sell Air Defence systems to the whole world."
Journalist: "But you don’t even have a production line ready?"
Israeli General: "We have 1.4 billion Indians to work for us." 🤯
Bro just admitted what the whole world already knows: India is becoming the global manufacturing beast for high-tech defence gear.
From Akash to BrahMos to now powering Israeli air defence lines – our engineers, factories, and talent are the backbone.
This isn’t outsourcing. This is India rising as the weapons manufacturing powerhouse the world needs.
Make in India → Sell to World.
Bharat First. From importer to exporter to global supplier.
We’re not just growing – we’re dominating.
#Israel
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