Med Rest/Kath

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Med Rest/Kath

Med Rest/Kath

@MedRest1

Self described internet elf

Katılım Eylül 2022
680 Takip Edilen146 Takipçiler
Mau
Mau@MauritzPreller·
About transmission.. It seems some people “gave up in 2021 on the idea that COVID vaccines helped prevent infection, transmission, and hospitalization." I suspect the confusion is that some people heard “prevent” and interpreted it as “prevent all infection, all transmission, and all hospitalization.” Its a bit like the misdirected ideas that some had that "all people who get covid will end up hospitalised or dead". (Did I hear anyone say @MaryBowdenMD?) That was never the sensible standard. A vaccine can reduce infection risk without eliminating infection. It can reduce transmission without stopping every onward case. It can reduce hospitalization risk without making hospitalization impossible. Thinking vaccines must stop all transmission to have any transmission benefit is like thinking boots are useless in the rain because your socks might still get wet. The claim worth debating is not “perfect protection.” It is degree of risk reduction.
Mau tweet media
Dan@Daniel_GEC_

@MauritzPreller @BarryYoungNZ Wow, ok, there it is. Well, I have to side with truth. I didn't know anyone still claimed that the jabs prevented infection, transmission, and hospitalization (most people gave up on that idea in 2021), but you have shown me that some people still think that. That's incredible

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Med Rest/Kath
Med Rest/Kath@MedRest1·
@RogerSeheult @MauritzPreller @TimTrippDesign @grok @DoctorTro Is sunlight confounded by density/fresh air? I'm in NZ and a lot of our Xmas time behaviour involves entertaining outside and if inside it's likely doors and windows are open with the inside areas used for parties etc generally opening to outdoor spaces.
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Tim Tripp
Tim Tripp@TimTrippDesign·
"Primary factor" and “The observational literature points toward vaccination having reduced severe disease in "high-risk groups”, are two different things Vaccination reducing severe disease in high-risk groups is a directional statement about a specific population. Vaccination being the primary factor for NZ's international outlier status is a causal claim at the national level that requires partitioning its contribution against a list of other factors, like seasonal timing, latitude, population health baseline. None of those partitioning studies exist. Not that I can find. I cannot honestly agree to a framing that the evidence does not support. Why does it matter whether vaccination was the primary factor rather than one factor among several?
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Tim Tripp
Tim Tripp@TimTrippDesign·
A 78x increased risk of covid mortality with comorbidity <60 and essentially zero risk without. A 4% mortality increase for every 1 degree over 28 degrees latitude. 66% increase winter respiratory illness mortality. Double the mortality risk for those in overcrowded living conditions. I'd say these are significant.
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Tim Tripp
Tim Tripp@TimTrippDesign·
Plenty... Within-NZ comparison: Wastewater-adjusted modelling showed the first Omicron wave (Feb–April, late summer) had higher total infections than the second wave (Jun–Aug, winter). Yet deaths were substantially lower in the summer wave. Same country, same population, similar vaccination levels. The clearest difference is seasonal timing. Official Health NZ mortality report: Ranked age as by far the strongest risk factor, followed by comorbidity (~6.3× higher risk) and deprivation (2–3× higher risk). Vaccination showed a reduction in elderly and comorbid subgroups but was not the dominant driver. Decades of excess winter mortality data: NZ has consistently had 66%%+ higher Respiratory disease mortality in winter, driven heavily by respiratory and circulatory causes (Davie et al. 2007 and later studies). Density/crowding: Peer-reviewed studies show overcrowded living conditions lead to worse outcomes when sick (higher stress, poorer recovery, more complications), not just higher transmission. Sunlight / latitude: Multiple studies (Cherrie et al. UVA with R² 0.9993, Walrand latitude paper, Rhodes et al.) show strong associations between sunlight exposure / latitude and lower COVID mortality.
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Tim Tripp
Tim Tripp@TimTrippDesign·
Just some tips on using Grok Grok does not automatically read the full original thread, external links, images, or previous Grok responses unless they are explicitly pasted into the query. In this case, Grok would only see your summary and framing Your question pre-loaded the premise with negative interpretation. This is a classic leading question that guides the AI toward finding fault rather than neutrally evaluating your position. You criticise others for doing this When given a biased or incomplete summary, Grok often falls back on the dominant public-health consensus (vaccines were the decisive factor) because that is heavily represented in its training data. It doesn’t automatically challenge or deeply re-analyse the framing unless the user explicitly asks it to. But you should know this, we’ve discussed it before x.com/i/grok?convers…
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Tim Tripp
Tim Tripp@TimTrippDesign·
@MedRest1 @MauritzPreller @grok @DoctorTro @RogerSeheult I'm asking for the evidence it is modest, because I don't believe it is. The risks of comorbidity, deprivation, over crowding, seasonal mortality differences are substantial. They are not usually treated with care in observational studies, if at all, especially Mua's graphs
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Med Rest/Kath
Med Rest/Kath@MedRest1·
@TimTrippDesign @MauritzPreller @grok @DoctorTro @RogerSeheult I think you're ignoring the blindingly obvious reason for our outcomes & focusing on minor ones. Yes minor reasons did help but only modestly & were supports for the major reason for NZs outcomes-vaccination prior to exposure-not replacements. You can't see the wood for the trees
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Keşfet

@TimTrippDesign @MauritzPreller @grok @DoctorTro @RogerSeheult @MaryBowdenMD @hemantmehta @atrupar