Malcolm Clay

@mashabani @MarkAmesExiled Jews do lie. Bear that in mind.

7 days into the war, Dubowitz claimed Iran only had 100 operational missile launchers after supposedly losing 75% of them. Iran fired thousands of drones and missiles in the 33 days after his claim.

@TeresaFabian6 @MarioNawfal It is not all of them, but it is always them.

@Mehck4442 @MarioNawfal Israel

🇸🇦🇮🇶 Saudi intercepted and destroyed 3 drones that entered its airspace from Iraq today. - The Saudi Ministry of Defense reserves the right to respond "at the appropriate time and place" - Riyadh says it will take "all necessary operational measures" to protect its sovereignty and citizens

@JasonMBrodsky Hmmm.

As Saudi Arabia is involved in pushing forward the diplomacy between the U.S. and #Iran's regime--with the Kingdom's foreign minister speaking with Araghchi and the Pakistanis in recent days--the Islamic Republic's proxies in Iraq are droning the Kingdom. Speaks for itself.

@mdubowitz Jews getting thirsty for more blood

Iran is a failed state barely held together by repression, fear, and a collapsing economy. What’s left of the leadership are meeting under bridges because of fear of Israeli operations. The rial is worthless. Prices are doubling ever two weeks. No one is selling dollars. The bazaar is again stirring. The Artesh and even parts of the IRGC are experiencing the same severe economic strain. What matters now is sustained pressure: economic warfare, maritime blockade, air blockade, and strategic patience. The regime can suppress ideological protests more easily than nationwide revolts based on economic suffering. Need a return to major kinetic operations focused on energy infrastructure before continuing any negotiations.

@IranObserver0 If true, that practically means Netenyahu convinced Trump to resume the war

⚡️BREAKING: The US has responded to Iran's proposal - Iran must hand over 400 kg of uranium to the United States - No compensation for damages incurred - Only one Iranian nuclear facility may remain in operation - None of Iran’s frozen assets will be released - No ceasefire throughout the region It is now clear why the Negotiations Failed

@AmitSegal @barbaraslavin1 Iranian position seems to be more reasonable to me

In Iran, they are publishing the five conditions set by Trump for a deal: 1- The U.S. will not pay any compensation for the damages to Iran 2- Transfer of the enriched uranium to the U.S. 3- Only one nuclear facility will remain operational inside Iran 4- Less than a quarter of Iran’s frozen assets will be released 5- The cessation of war on all fronts is conditional on holding negotiations In contrast to the five "confidence conditions" set by the Iranians for holding negotiations: 1- Ending the war on all fronts 2- Lifting of sanctions 3- Release of the frozen funds 4- Compensation for war damages 5- Recognition of Iran’s sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz

@BrettErickson28 I mean if the blockade drags on, mounting pressure on the IRGC will likely push them toward attacking U.S. ships and American interests across the region in an effort to break it.

@Mehck4442 ?

Does President Trump have any viable avenues to victory in Iran? Let's examine the potential pathways to success Washington has: 1) A Renewed Bombing Campaign - This option appears to be increasingly likely as President Trump returns back to the United States following the recent summit with Xi in Beijing. - However, it is my opinion that this is unlikely to yield any different results than the first bombing campaign. Iran has had now 32 days to resupply, reposition, and harden their defenses. The initial shock and awe campaign was successful in generating massive destruction within Iran, but unsuccessful in achieving any necessary strategic outcomes. - If the United States returns to a renewed bombing campaign, it is extremely unlikely to result in the toppling of the regime or major concessions at the negotiating table. - Result: Not Viable. 2) Continuation of the Blockade and Economic Warfare Campaign - This option would essentially be a continuation of the status quo we are currently seeing. This option would call for continued control over Iran's ability to export their energy products (at scale) via the Strait of Hormuz. This will undoubtedly impose significant economic pain on the Iranian regime and Iranian populous. - This strategy is not entirely without merit. It has been posited that if Iran is unable to draw sufficient revenues, and thus unable to pay the IRGC, the regime is increasingly likely to be toppled. It is also theorized that if the current inflation rates Iran is seeing turn into terminal hyperinflation, this could cause significant public unrest that could result in mass uprisings that topple the regime. Furthermore, the CONCERN that this could cause mass uprisings may be sufficient for the Iranian leadership to make major concessions at the negotiating table. - However, we need to understand a few keys aspects to this. First, it is likely that the Iranian regime has MORE support now domestically than they did before the conflict. Washington has not done themselves any favors in this capacity. With the notorious bombing of a school in the early days of the war, which killed ~175, alongside the constant rhetoric from President Trump including threatening to "destroy their entire civilization", partnered with the normal "rally around the flag" effect countries in war see, the willingness internally for the population to rise up and overthrow the regime as a result of economic hardship seems highly unlikely... but not impossible. - Result: Low Likelihood (but potentially viable). However, failure would only exponentially compound the damage to the global economy and wreak additional havoc on Asia and Africa that are increasingly facing insurmountable fertilizer and energy crises. 3) A United States Boots on the Ground Campaign - This could range in scale drastically from a CIA/SF style embedding within the Iranian resistance, to seizure of strategic positions such Kharg Island, to a full-scale invasion. In the best case scenario, the United States could hope to accomplish an Iraq-Invasion style steamrolling of Iran... - However, there are a plethora of hurdles to this. There is very low viability to being able to achieve success short of a full-scale ground invasion in a timeline that is viable for the global economy. This is what it all truly boils down to for any option. The TIMELINE in which strategic success could be achieved. The global economy does not have "six more months". The global economy likely does not even have "one more month". In addition, this is NOT a simple directive from the President that could see such actions taken. This would involve Congress, it would involve massive logistical planning, and overall is just not a viable pathway for a multitude of legal and operational reasons. - Lastly, there is simply no domestic support for such an extreme action. The American citizenry have no appetite to lose the lives of potentially tens of thousands of American soldiers for a ground invasion of Iran. It would also be the death knell for the legacy of Donald Trump, something he is desperately trying to cling on to as this quagmire continues to overshadow any other achievements he may have been able to hang his coat on. -Result: Not Viable 4) The Arming of the Iranian Resistance - This appears to have been attempted via the Iraqi Kurds in the early days of the war, but only resulted in the United States being swindled out of their weaponry. Let me be very clear here... good for the Kurds. They have treated horribly by the United States for decades, and we have turned our backs on them repeatedly despite them ALWAYS answering the call. Keep the weapons. You deserve them. - This is also a strategy that borders on evil. In the BEST case scenario, we are talking about inciting a massive civil war in Iran that would result in the deaths of hundreds of thousands. It would clearly be a proxy war for the United States and Israeli, and would be seen as such by most everyone in Iran except the most ardent opposition to the Iranian leadership currently in power. - And here is the real issue... It doesn't even have a high likelihood of success. The Iranian resistance is not particularly well organized or well trained. They do not have sufficient firepower even if armed by the United States and Israel to some degree, and I do not imagine many people want to give their lives being used as a pawn in the United States' geopolitical chess match. - Result: Low Likelihood, but devastating in even the most optimistic of outcomes. 5) Strike a Peace Deal... Hoping to Sell the US That it Was a Victory - This is likely the best option for President Trump... but it is unlikely that he will pursue this due to the fact that many American's are well aware that the United States has been check-mated by Iran in this conflict. Americans know that we have entirely botched this conflict from start to finish. We know that Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz. And we know that any peace deal will result in a massive strategic victory for the Iranian regime, regardless of how aggressively President Trump tries to spin it. - This is IRREFUTABLY the best option for the globe. As much as I would love for the Iranian regime, which IS a terrorist regime, to be removed from power, as much as I would love all nuclear material to be removed from Iran and to see them never be able to threaten the world in this way... we need to operate in reality. The reality is that the United States is left with options that, at best, have a low likelihood of success. The Strait of Hormuz has been closed for almost 11 weeks now. The world has permanently lost over a billion barrels of oil. The fertilizer crisis will result in the loss of thousands of lives. The global economy is sprinting towards a global recession.. and the United States has very few avenues to success, none of which are likely to be successful. - Any peace deal would see massive strategic and long-term benefit to Iran. Sanctions relief, control over the Strait (potentially, but unlikely), and a clear victory for the regime that will only further cement their control over the country. This will come to be, alongside the Epstein cover-up, the defining aspect of President Trump's legacy. - Result: Best Available Option (but unlikely to be pursued by Washington) Conclusion: - Washington is left with very few viable avenues to success. Any viable avenue is low-likelihood, and rife with catastrophic downsides if unsuccessful. - The best option for President Trump is to make major concessions at the negotiating table. This will include, at minimum, large scale sanctions relief that provides a massive boon to the Iranian economy and leadership, and provides a permanent cementing of the regimes power inside of Iran. This is the worst-case scenario for President Trump, but the necessary avenue for the global economy on the precipice of disaster.

@TheocharousH @business Greece is not a country

@business Greece is NATO but Turkey threatens

Turkey has proposed building a $1.2 billion (€1 billion) fuel pipeline for military use to help meet the energy needs of allies on NATO’s eastern European flank, sources say bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

@hdagres Sounds like Dresden 2.0 is in the offing

Sounds like a stalemate, and unfortunately, I worry civilian infrastructure will be the next target because the US thinks it'll force the Iranians to surrender their nuclear program...

@MazMHussain None of these arguments — or even all of them combined — can fully explain the intensity of UAE’s pro-Israel stance. It’s not merely strategic. For MBZ, it’s deeply personal and emotional. A passionate Israeliphilia rooted in something that carries a tint of inferiority complex

Perhaps the most important variable holding together the UAE-Israel alliance is not the questionable geopolitical logic but the deep ties that have developed over at least a generation now between Israeli and Emirati elites, who share not just intimate relationships but deep economic interests on a personal level. This dynamic long predates the Abraham Accords, which were really just a coming out party, and you can chart its evolution over the past two decades by looking at a web of joint investments and institutional affiliations that now bind elites in the two countries. (That is also something we have reported on in important individual cases: dropsitenews.com/p/jeffrey-epst…) This is why regardless of what happens—or individual instances of friction like Netanyahu embarrassing Emirati leadership, or a future Israeli government legally annexing the West Bank—the dynamic set in motion by the Abraham Accords is likely irreversible. Not only are there mutually overlapping layers of business interests tying key Emirati regime figures to Israel, on a practical level there is by now abundant evidence that the UAE permitted Israeli firms to penetrate its critical infrastructure and even given them ongoing access to sensitive data with national security implications. MBZ is ideologically committed to the alliance, but even if a different leadership emerged later the sunk costs of those prior actions will make scaling back the Israeli relationship dangerous or even impossible for Emiratis. The joint Israeli-Emirati project of a war against Iran conducted over the objections or caution of other regional countries is just another step forward in a relationship that had already crossed the Rubicon a long time ago. The Abraham Accords is seen by the UAE now less as a pragmatic political arrangement than a core part of their identity, which also explains their growing hostility to other GCC countries that have turned against the idea. While the advantages for Israel of such a relationship are obvious, from the Emirati perspective going all-in on this alliance seems much more like a high-risk gamble. But it is one from which they can by now not back down, and in fact will probably feel compelled to escalate.

@guyelster Hitting pipeline will be much easier for Iran to close off entire Hormuz.

The United Arab Emirates will accelerate construction of a new oil pipeline to double its export capacity through Fujairah, aiming to bypass the shuttered Strait of Hormuz

@RT_com Prepare the popcorns for watching Iranian missiles beating the hell out of Tel Aviv

Israel preparing for 'RENEWED WAR' with IRAN following Trump's visit to China — Israel's C13 Officials estimate 'potential window' for US military could open AS SOON AS TOMORROW until start of WORLD CUP IDF expected to be involved if hostilities 'RESUME'

@gbrew24 You can also look at it this way: If they could render 80% of our bases unusable using only 30% of their missiles, God knows what they could do with 100%..

"Iran still has 70% of its missiles" is both an argument against or *for* renewed military action, depending on the perspective.

@JasonMBrodsky Because they all understood one simple reality: Israel is the cause of all headache in the region.

The countries that were the biggest champions of non-aggression with #Iran before Operation Epic Fury--#UAE, #Qatar, and #Oman--have been the largest victims of its aggression during the war. And countries like Saudi Arabia had a Security Cooperation Agreement with the Islamic Republic which pledged respect for the sovereignty of states. But Tehran hasn't upheld it in recent months in its attacks. So what does this tell us about how a non-aggression pact would fare? Not well if history is any guide. ft.com/content/ab78e6…

@andreas_krieg And Greece

Israel is digging an ever deeper hole with the media. Once you have lost the NYT, all you have left is German media to weaponize pro-Israel narratives.

@marklevinshow I haven't seen more insincere tears in my life

Yes, destroy the regime!

@tequieremos @andreas_krieg Israel sliding into UAE’s DMs: "If you actually love me, stop being shy and scream it to the whole world. Loudly. In public. Or I’m packing my bags and leaving this situationship. Abraham who?"

Israel's rebuke of the UAE on refusing to acknowledge Netanyahu's visit sends a clear message: you entered this new strategic realignment against Iran on your own agency, but you won't be able to exit on your own. The relationship is one of servility, not parity. The whole plan behind the war on Iran was to deepen the rift between Arabs and Iran, leaving Arabs with no choice but to go down the rabbit hole of the Abraham Accords. However, the aggressive US and Israeli pursuit of unilateral strategic objectives, combined with a lack of deference to Gulf states' concerns, gave many Arab states an opportunity to express frustration and revisit their strategic calculus regarding the Abraham Accords. The UAE, in its hubris of being farsighted and master of realpolitik, ignored clear warnings and went all in with Israel, to the point of actively assisting and participating in the war on Iran. The UAE's leadership will face many more such rebukes before it comes back to its senses, if at all.

@oscarrickettnow @MiddleEastEye Who would say that we would find Netenyahu's account more reliable

Netanyahu says he held a secret meeting with MBZ weeks into the war on Iran. The UAE says he didn’t. Sources and flight tracking appear to confirm the meeting took place on 26 March. What does it all mean? New piece for @MiddleEastEye middleeasteye.net/news/israel-ua…