@DividendTalks The narrative is that nobody fully understands how all their ai Capex is going to monetize. Zuck wants to have an ai agent available to all users. Risky and I don’t get how that fits social media either. I’m out
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Owl In On Calls
245 posts
@michaelsikand lol I knew I should not have waited to do DD after you posted that
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I DON'T WALK I WADDLE
Michael Sikand 🦑@michaelsikand
I just bought $2M of a brand new stock after it crashed 7% today. $PENG is now a 20% position in my Asymmetrical Bets fund (+89% YTD) on @joinautopilot followed by $10M. Credit goes to legend @pennycheck for being the first to call this stock. With Penguin Solutions I now own the winner agnostic integrator behind the memory, CPU, and photonics supercycle at under 17x forward earnings. 1) The memory business alone is worth the market cap. Penguin's Integrated Memory biz = they take raw DRAM chips from manufacturers like SK Hynix and package them into custom memory modules built to spec for AI servers, telco gear, and enterprise systems. It's now 50% of revenue, did $172M last quarter, growing 63% YoY, ~$800M annualized. Apply a 3x price to sales on just this unit and you're already above what $PENG is worth today. 2) Play the CPU supercycle. CPU:GPU ratios going from 1:8 to 1:1 as agentic AI takes over. $PENG is the lead integration partner for AMD EPYC and Intel Xeon. Every new socket = more memory cooling and integration revenue baked in. 3) The AI Factory platform is real. OriginAI is their turnkey deployment from 256 to 16,000+ GPU clusters for sovereign and enterprise customers. 85,000 GPUs already deployed. UBS says non hyperscaler buyers (sovereigns, neoclouds, enterprises) capture 48% of AI infra spend in 2026. Hyperscalers build in house. But these other players ALL need Penguin. 4) Photonics is the unpriced asymmetric bet. $PENG called photonics early and was an early investor in Celestial AI. $MRVL acquired it $3.25B in December. Now Penguin is building the Photonic Memory Appliance, making it the only public play on this kind of wild photonics tech. The PMA is basically a box that uses light to link memory across a bunch of servers so the entire AI cluster can share one giant pool of memory like it's one big computer. Marvell guides Celestial to $1B revenue in 2029. If Penguin captures even low double digits of that stream, that could be 9 figs of unpriced networking revenue on $PENG's highest margin, most defensible IP. 5) People/partners are cracked. Chairman of $PENG is ALSO Chairman of $LITE. AMD CTO Mark Papermaster sits on the board SK Telecom dropped $200M as a strategic investor New CPO Ian Colle ran AI infra at AWS 6) Risks are real but manageable Penguin's AI cluster business is lumpy and one big customer slipping a quarter can tank earnings (already happened in Q2, down 42% YoY). The memory shortage is a headwind as high DRAM prices are slowing customer orders and hitting Penguin's gross margins. The photonics upside is a 2027+ story, so if it slips, the stock can sit dead money for a while. Because the multiple is still so cheap, I overall see limited downside compared to the upside if their photonics option can be quantified with $MRVL where I could see Penguin trading closer to a 30x+ forward PE. Surf's up. Full thesis linked on Substack below.
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@DivesTech @CNBCFastMoney @MelissaLeeCNBC @CNBC @CNBCtech Software deserves to benefit but I doubt they will
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We believe it’s top of the 3rd inning in the AI Revolution bull market…and we see software winners as next to benefit @CNBCFastMoney @MelissaLeeCNBC 🍿🎯📺👇🏆🔥🐂 @CNBC @CNBCtech
CNBC's Fast Money@CNBCFastMoney
The tech trade goes higher than 10% at least, predicts @DivesTech despite the pullback from records today. He lays out the bull case and his top picks: cnbc.com/video/2026/05/…
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Added $meta $smh $crdo $qcom $lunr $cdns $alab
Portfolio down 25%
I’ll tell you a story when this blows away
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Some friends around me ask me this.
“I should have bought memory stocks and optical stocks when you were talking about them. Other people already made millions. I’m so jealous.”
When I hear that, I usually ask them this.
“Do you want to make money from stocks, or do you want to make more money than everyone else?”
Even if you enter now, your return probably will not beat the people who are already up several hundred percent.
But you do not need to make several hundred percent to make this meaningful.
What matters is that this market can still create wealth. And I still believe there are opportunities left.
The market always gives us another chance.
(And yes, I gave them a 7 day pass to my Substack🤣)
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Owl In On Calls retweetledi
Very bullish long-term on $AAOI:
Weak rev/EPS is just noise due to capacity, product mix + early 800G ramp costs. Nothing to do w demand.
I think we hit $1T hyperscaler capex next yr based on current sales data from SIA.
TrendForce fcst the optical transceiver market to be $26B in 2026 (+57% YoY).
Confirmed by $AAOI on earnings call: "Demand for 800G and 1.6T modules are projected to continue to exceed our production capacity through mid-2027."
So, demand is booming.
But then you get the question on capacity...
Their new 800G/1.6T facility starts production in Q3 + capacity expanding 350% by end of 2027.
So $AAOI's ramp timeline is kinda perfectly timed:
- Q1 2026: 100k units/month 800G/1.6T capacity
- Q2 2026: 150k/month
- End 2026: >650k/month
- End 2027: >930k/month
They've already qualified one major customer, and another big one is mid-qual rn.
So by mid-2027 monthly, transceiver rev potential = $470M = $5.7B annualized run rate.
Just takes some time for revenue to hit the p&l since qualificaition cycles can take several months, let alone long-ish delivery times.
"With the equipment delivery schedule, it could take 24 months for you to deliver lasers to the customer. Sometimes the customer requires 3,000 hours of reliable data"
So still very early in a multi yr optics supercycle.
Imo $AAOI is one of the best positioned pure-plays if all goes to plan w/ capacity expansion + customer qualifications.
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@aleabitoreddit I’m late to the party building a position so I’m not upset lol
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Every day it's like this on repeat with $SIVE, it's like dejavu lol.
Makes sense why Sivers is getting listed on Nasdaq soon instead of staying in local markets.
New local hit piece on their own frontier company happens every market open, stock drops 10%:
-> "CPO and the CW lasers is nothing new"
-> "Sivers is going up against well funded $LITE and $COHR and will lose because of capital"
-> "They had to dilute 2.5% to get listed on Nasdaq"
-> "Delayed annual report is sketchy" (to get listed on Nasdaq)
-> $SIVE is not big enough to capitalize on $JBL relationship and scale.
Local Swedish folks end up selling. Western investors/funds end up acquiring the float.
Better for the West to own the company before CPO ramp starts.
Creating a frontier company purely from Sweden seems hopeless given local culture.
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
I'm still laughing how much Swedish hate their own frontier companies so much. That they write hit pieces every day on $SIVE. This one was entertaining: Local journalists show up to an empty $SIVE administrative building uninvited. Because they can't fathom the CEO is in Silicon Valley or design team is working on US Gov CHIPS act dev in the US. And because there weren't many cars parked outside + CFO wouldn't take questions about secretive hyperscaler deal financials. They wrote a random negative hit piece. By repeating "There are several who make lasers like these and Sivers are far from alone". Several like $LITE, $COHR, $60B+ companies. and reported earlier that "CPO is nothing special, it's been around for years." While GS projects CPO going from $1B -> $91B TAM over the next two years. Even put "Plans" in quotation marks because they didn't think Sivers is supplying lasers to $JBL 1.6T LRO. IMO, $SIVE ends up as a $10B+ company next year, especially if they follow what $LITE / $COHR did with downstream IP integration to capture more of CPO module BOM. Just don't think Swedish people understand hyperscaler supply chains, concept of forward growth, or the fact that employee count doesn't equate to revenue. Transfer of control from local Swedish -> West is always appreciated, as this was a majority owned local retail company before.
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Owl In On Calls retweetledi
$AMZN is opening its full logistics network to businesses of all sizes including freight, distribution, fulfillment & parcel shipping.
This is Amazon turning its supply chain into a platform giving outside companies access to same infrastructure behind its own delivery machine.
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Owl In On Calls retweetledi
$SOI / $SLOIF
한국인들 뿐 아니라 X에서 Soitec 관련 글은 잘 안보이는 군요.
YTD로 378.05%나 되는 엄청난 상승률 ( $AXTI 의 372.67% 을 넘어섬)을 보이는데, 매수가 힘들어서 그런 걸까요?
레이저 물질에 필요한 InP 기판의 대명사가 $AXTI 라면,
실리콘포토닉스를 구성하는 웨이퍼인 SOI 웨이퍼를 만드는 곳이 바로 $SOI 입니다.
Photon Capital@PhotonCap
Soitec $SOI / $SLOIF is up more than 370% YTD. But step back to a 5-year view and the stock is still down 28.99%. So this is a recovery, not a breakout to new highs. So what's behind the move? SOI wafers feed a broad set of end markets (silicon photonics, RF, and others). In silicon photonics, trying to build a chip without an SOI wafer is like trying to build a house without first buying the land. Competitors? Yes, you'll see names like SEH (Shin-Etsu Handotai), GlobalWafers, and Simgui. But the IP sits with Soitec. Even when competitors generate revenue, Soitec collects a royalty on top through Smart Cut licensing. About 80% of the SOI market runs on Smart Cut, so Soitec captures value either as product revenue or as royalty revenue across most of the ecosystem.
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Owl In On Calls retweetledi
Absolutely wild that $META lost $160B in market cap after raising CapEx by just $10B even though the business posted some of its strongest growth metrics in years:
• Fastest revenue growth in ~5 years at 33% YoY
• Ad impressions grew 19% & Ad pricing grew 12% (rare combo)
• Reels time spent rose 10% from Instagram ranking improvements
• Q2 guidance came in stronger than expected at up to 28% growth
• Updated ad models drove a 6% boost in landing page view conversions
• Facebook video time rose more than 8% (largest sequential gain in 4 years)
• WhatsApp monetization is scaling with Family of Apps “Other” revenue up 74% YoY
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Can someone explain to me why anyone wouldn’t buy this $NOW dip?
Remember what Warren Buffet said guys…
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@HolySmokas For short term fun I bought call options on the double leveraged AMDL ticker last month. Those things have exploded
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No one realizes how fast $AMD can go to $400
Jeremy Lefebvre@HolySmokas
My $AMD bull, base, beat case for next few years. Agree or disagree? Banger alert ‼️ of a post
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@ChrisCamillo It’s just getting started. Still a good buy here
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Trump endorses Palantir after the Iran war; “Just ask our enemies!!!”
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I’m officially restarting the $500 to $1 Million 2026 Challenge on Monday!
I’m opening a FREE private X group where you’ll see my exact entries & exits live.
To be added:
Like + Comment “$SPY”
(You must be following)
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BREAKING: I am BLOWN AWAY by the support this is for you!
My FULL Options SELLING COURSE from Beginner to PRO $SPY $TSLA $NVDA $AMD
This is how I made 88k with over 95% Win Rate in 1 year STEP BY STEP! Now over 8 figures
To celebrate I will also throw in my CHECKLIST and Indicators
Just comment "ME" and DROP A 👍!
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