Michael

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Michael

Michael

@Michael_Cva

Disciple of Jesus Christ, Husband, Father, Professional, Harvard Law School Grad, Golfer, NE Pats Fan and Ferrari Afficiando and 100% ANTI MAGA

Katılım Eylül 2020
103 Takip Edilen34 Takipçiler
Michael
Michael@Michael_Cva·
Ed, to me it's not surprising. They have fallen. Although Q2 rates have been outstanding, rates are coming down.sentiment, with the SOH being closed, is understandably negative. And given the bargaining leverage that Iran has over Trump, there's no reason to think there is an immediate solution. Thankfully I have the majority of my investments in tax-free accounts, so I have trimmed my shipping until there's some resolution on the SOH because this thing could go on for months and that I think be bad for tankers.
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Ed Finley–Richardson
Me, as tankers inexplicably fall despite earnings blowouts by $TRMD and $ECO
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mtView
mtView@slrdriving·
@MarcoFoster_ Obama sent pallets of $$ funding Iran's nuclear program. What a lying POS
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Marco Foster
Marco Foster@MarcoFoster_·
President Obama on Iran: “We pulled it off without firing a missile. We got 97% of their enriched uranium out. There’s no dispute that it worked and we didn’t have to kill a whole bunch of people or shut down the Strait of Hormuz”
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♡︎☆
♡︎☆@Elliedvce·
Only 5 % can give the answer Let understand the world! ❤️👀
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Michael
Michael@Michael_Cva·
@JontiAllegra @JavierBlas Well we're already seeing on one hand gasoline. Prices are up 50%. That is not nothing. And the longer-term effects, as you say. We will see
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Jonti Allegra
Jonti Allegra@JontiAllegra·
@JavierBlas turns out the 50 year old much feared Hormuz blockade scenario was nothing at all, nothing at all, nothing at all? well, we'll see
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Javier Blas
Javier Blas@JavierBlas·
The bullish side of the oil street has gone from "the paper market is wrong" to "the physical market is also wrong."
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Michael
Michael@Michael_Cva·
@JoumannaTV Perhaps you are missing the irony Joumanna.... Combining faux and axios... I think it's rather clever
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Michael
Michael@Michael_Cva·
@myfreemarket @JoumannaTV Hey Free Market, if you care to know, come on April 7th, Trump made a social media post indicating that the Iranian 10 points were a workable starting point and that's what started the ceasefire or don't you recall
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Free Market Agenda
Free Market Agenda@myfreemarket·
@JoumannaTV Imagine being a journalist that people rely on for information, and then take at face value the ravings of a lunatic! “…that Washington initially accepted Iran’s 10 conditions…” Do you even remember what those were? Extraordinary…
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Joumanna Nasr Bercetche
Joumanna Nasr Bercetche@JoumannaTV·
Good perspective on IRGC thinking and strategic calculations from here. A re-opening of the strait won’t come for free ⬇️
Babak Vahdad@BabakVahdad

In an interview with Al Mayadeen that offers a remarkably clear window into Iranian strategic thinking on the war and expectations surrounding future negotiations, former IRGC commander Mohsen Rezaei says the US is trying to stage a symbolic “reopening” of the Strait of Hormuz and then quietly exit the region without paying a price, but argues Tehran will not allow that. According to Rezaei, Iran believes the confrontation must produce concrete political and strategic gains, including compensation for war damages and the release of frozen Iranian assets before any serious negotiations can resume. Interestingly, he claims that Pakistan’s prime minister informed Tehran that Washington initially accepted Iran’s 10 conditions, but that the negotiating team linked to JD Vance later introduced positions contradicting those understandings, leading to a collapse in talks. This is one of the reasons why, from Tehran’s perspective, it becomes increasingly difficult to take Washington’s negotiating posture seriously when US positions appear to shift constantly and the broader diplomatic reference points remain highly volatile and unpredictable. Rezaei further alleges that during the final day of the ceasefire, the US deployed naval and air assets to the Sea of Oman in an attempt to pressure and “encircle” Iran before once again requesting negotiations. The broader point emerging from Rezaei’s remarks, as many analysts including myself underline, is that Tehran increasingly treats resilience itself as a strategic asset. In the Iranian view, surviving pressure, absorbing escalation, and refusing to bend under military and economic coercion are absolute values in strategic terms. The assumption is that, contrary to the US reading, endurance becomes political capital: the longer Iran withstands pressure while maintaining strategic capabilities and regional influence, the stronger it believes its position becomes at the negotiating table, despite tactical (as opposed to strategic) losses. #Iran #Iranwar

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Michael
Michael@Michael_Cva·
@gCaptain You really believe the talks are advancing? He's only said that like 30 times before and you're still falling for the same garbage
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Michael
Michael@Michael_Cva·
@0g640g @ProfessorPape If you're so annoyed, why are you following him? That doesn't make any sense.
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O.G.@0g640g·
@ProfessorPape Why do you text like? Because you’ve fallen into the escalation trap 1. Pape desperately needs his marketing gimmick to be popular But it’s not just unpopular—it’s annoying
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Robert A. Pape
Robert A. Pape@ProfessorPape·
Trump just buried Project Freedom With attacks on UAE oil, it already failed on day 1. Trump is desperately bouncing from one extreme to another — A doom spiral of strategic failure in the Escalation Trap
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Rory Johnston
Rory Johnston@Rory_Johnston·
Secretaries of Defence and State spend all day talking about how Project Freedom is super necessary and a fantastic success Trump then abruptly calls off the two day old policy to “guide” ships through Hormuz. The Strait remains closed. Oil falls, equity markets rally. /scene
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Rory Johnston
Rory Johnston@Rory_Johnston·
Postponed Freedom
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Michael
Michael@Michael_Cva·
@MarkCarsongm @ProfessorPape Well Mark you don't have to read Professor Pape. Instead, you could live in la la land and believe all the garbage that comes out of Trump's mouth
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Mark Carson
Mark Carson@MarkCarsongm·
@ProfessorPape Will there ever be anything good that we do? Or even anything you didn’t predict? Reading you is very depressing if you happen to be someone who wants the USA to win.
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Robert A. Pape
Robert A. Pape@ProfessorPape·
Iran’s military is ready for major escalation. Get ready for rapidly mounting damage in: —Iran —Gulf states — World economy
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Michael
Michael@Michael_Cva·
@BlueDuckCap @WarrenPies Sounds like you think you are smarter than everyone else. Well I'm one of those SOH doomers as you call it, I know I have cleaned up this year 69% here to date
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BDC
BDC@BlueDuckCap·
The SOH doomers have some common traits: 1. They think they are smarter than everyone else 2. The greatly underestimate the thesis of those on the other side of the trade 3. They often have some form of TDS (varying levels of severity) 4. They are the quintessential sound smart but never make money gang.
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Warren Pies
Warren Pies@WarrenPies·
It's interesting how the people most worried about the SOH/energy crisis are also most skeptical of AI. On the other hand, the most AI-pilled are dismissive of the SOH. It's all a big Rorschach test...
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Michael
Michael@Michael_Cva·
@fthegurus @Rory_Johnston Thanks Rory, I have been following you the last couple of months. You and Professor Pape have helped me understand this "excursion" we are on....
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Michael
Michael@Michael_Cva·
@ericnuttall Eric, what likelihood, if any, do you think Canada would institute an export ban?
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Eric Nuttall
Eric Nuttall@ericnuttall·
To reiterate, even if the SofH magically opened up today, the world will still forfeit >1.5BN barrels of production, and collectively SPRs + visible inventories will still fall to all-time lows, taking years to restock. You’re not buying the spike, you’re buying the “day after.”
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Michael
Michael@Michael_Cva·
@Tyler_Durden77 @HFI_Research You nailed that timeline. I recall that now that you mention it, but it actually became a blur with all of Trump's continual babbling lies. Yet the media soaks up everything he says as to the markets 🤔
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Kevin
Kevin@Tyler_Durden77·
@HFI_Research Just remember how last Monday we heard Tue-Wed on Round 2, then Trump said last Tue maybe within 48 hrs), then it was Friday, Sat, Sun, today and now maybe probably possibly Wed. Milked this out 10 days
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HFI Research
HFI Research@HFI_Research·
Axios is at it again! The Israeli informant somehow got access to info that the supreme leader of Iran gave the green light to negotiate. Can’t make this shit up even if you tried.
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