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I’ve made $AVR a decent size position. Some short personal assumption from my POV🧵; •enrollment q1 ‘27 - pivotal readout h1 28 •market gets to 65-75% POS •Model mrkt share - quick ramp in small annuli to 35% & general 5-10% •if MDT buys post paradigm - $4b price tag floor

Some interesting comments from Jacob Van Naarden, $LLY head of business development, at STAT's Breakthrough Summit East event yesterday: On deal volume: Jake, himself, is seeing approx 10 deals per week, ie deals that are important enough, or diligenced enough, to cross his desk. "We are making more offers than you can possibly imagine. Either me personally or members of my team are making between three and five offers a week to either license something or buy a company or do some kind of discovery deal. Of course, you haven't read about all those because they don't all end up happening..." Why don't all these deals get done? A lot of deals are small, or involve private companies or preclinical assets, are not press released, etc etc... However, when it comes to public company deals... Jake: "What's interesting is how many of the multi-billion dollar deals we are attempting to do, and sort of get rebuffed with some frequency..." He added... "We engage with a lot of publicly traded companies... and those are the ones where I'm particularly surprised you put sort of a market premium offer on the table, and you're not even granted a conversation, so to speak, as you have a conversation, but it sort of doesn't go anywhere. That's pretty surprising, and that's that's happening more frequently than I would have expected."

I’ve made $AVR a decent size position. Some short personal assumption from my POV🧵; •enrollment q1 ‘27 - pivotal readout h1 28 •market gets to 65-75% POS •Model mrkt share - quick ramp in small annuli to 35% & general 5-10% •if MDT buys post paradigm - $4b price tag floor

Good piece on Bloomberg Intelligence and for those with HELIUM exposure. • Qatar’s shutdown of LNG production has taken about a third of global helium production offline, affecting chipmakers who rely on helium for semiconductor manufacturing. • Helium has no viable substitute in the chip manufacturing process, and no other source can immediately replace Qatar's supply, with helium containers already filled before the war remaining stranded • If the disruption persists, helium shortages could force chipmakers to deprioritise lower-margin product lines, reinforcing the existing allocation toward AI memory and deepening an already severe memory shortage